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May 2013 General Discussion/Obs


wisconsinwx

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Up to 57 with partly sunny skies. An improvement over yesterday, but definitely not beach or pool weather. - unless you got a heated pool!

 

It seems like this is the slowest starts to consistent warm wx that I can remember.

 

Pretty wet to DLL on the 12z GFS.

 

GFS_3_2013052612_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.png

 

And also lol.

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I was just going to say SE MI is being left out.

 

You'd like the NAM better. More evenly distributed. LAF & OH is still on the short end of the stick.

 

NAM_221_2013052612_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.png

 

It's highly unlikely that we go through another event without some decent rains while everyone around us gets some.

 

The odds are definitely on our side this time around.

 

But just the thought of it is funny.

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We would basically wipe out our short term precip surplus (since March 1) if no rain falls in the next week. Still in pretty good shape if going from January 1. We might get enough rain to hold it off.

It's never gonna rain here again. Congrats.

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We were stuck in a dry pocket for quite a while this morning and we still managed to reach 0.97" of rain thanks to a heavy cell at the back corner of the MCS.  My 2-day total is 2.15".  The next round is already organizing wnw from here through nw Iowa.

 

Yeah you might be sitting in the zone of heavy rainfall with this new batch developing. 

 

Picked up 0.08" from today's rain.  2-day total now at 0.38".  MLI has had almost an inch and a half, just 30 miles southwest.

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This is getting crazy.  Each new WPC 7-day rain forecast stays the same with 5-7 inches across the entire state of Iowa.  That's on top of the widespread 2-4 inches(isolated 5-7") that has already fallen across much of the area yesterday and today.

 

Storms over central Iowa continue to organize and strengthen, aimed in my direction.

 

p168i.gif

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This is getting crazy.  Each new WPC 7-day rain forecast stays the same with 5-7 inches across the entire state of Iowa.  That's on top of the widespread 2-4 inches(isolated 5-7") that has already fallen across much of the area yesterday and today.

 

Storms over central Iowa continue to organize and strengthen, aimed in my direction.

 

At least the drought won't be as bad as last year.

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This is getting crazy.  Each new WPC 7-day rain forecast stays the same with 5-7 inches across the entire state of Iowa.  That's on top of the widespread 2-4 inches(isolated 5-7") that has already fallen across much of the area yesterday and today.

 

Storms over central Iowa continue to organize and strengthen, aimed in my direction.

 

p168i.gif

 

At least the past few weeks have been dry, which will prevent a repeat of June 2008.  Still, there is going to be some major flooding on many area rivers but it won't get to record levels.

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The Flash Flood watch by DVN.

 

FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL347 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY....A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WILLPROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKENDHAS ALREADY SATURATED THE GROUND ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMSTHIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ANDCONTINUE INTO MONDAY. COPIOUS GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERYHEAVY RAINFALL OF SEVERAL INCHES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THIS MAYCAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND ALSO CREATE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREARIVERS.
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Please, no more cold air until October! Getting tired of having the house shut up because it's too cool for open windows. 

65-75 would be great for a couple weeks. 

 

GFS has this are over to Frostfern in the cross hairs for 3" + in the next 72 hours.

 

GFS_3_2013052618_F72_PCPIN_72_HR.png

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Northwest Iowa is lit up yet again late this evening, but I'm thinking this MCS will tend to dive southeast through the Des Moines area like the previous one did.  I'm assuming the big line of storms over northern Missouri will make it tough for a big complex to push eastward into eastern Iowa.

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0.77" rain here today.  Certainly not a small amount of rain, but compared to the 4"+ seen just 20 miles south/southwest near the QC it's not too impressive.  Heavy rains have gone out of the way to miss this area the last few days.  Gotta guess it's mother nature knowing how to avoid areas that were previously doused with flooding rains recently. 

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Lots of problems not far from me. Have Duck Creek going crazy about a block or so away. Lots of street flooding and street closures. Hope another three plus inches doesn't materialize...don't need anymore.

Yeah that isn't good at all, however I am concerned that you guys are at least going to be scraped by the Northern fringes of the MCS in Western IA. Hopefully the worst of it slides to the South.

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Nothing around here overnight as western Iowa storms are diving south.  The big MCV is pooping out as it tries to progress eastward across Iowa.  With the front/boundaries being reinforced farther south I'm wondering if that's where tonight's heavy stuff may end up again with us not getting much.

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