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March 25th - 26th Potential Threat Discussion


goombatommy

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Well for here in NW Chester County PA the latest model runs with the Wxsim tool shows a mix of rain and snow beginning early afternoon on Sunday transitioning to all snow by late Sunday evening with 10" to 13" of very heavy wet snow accumulating - temps will range between 32.2 and 33.1 during most of the very heavy snowfall rates during the overnight and during the day on Monday. Of course much will change by then....no doubt a miss to the south will be one of the future model runs - as the good ole GFS will always do a few days before any big event

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This one is a rough one. We've got 3 different cyclonic circulations surrounding and working in tandem with the main upper low coming across the Appalachians. As each one slightly alters with each model run, the timing of the vertically stacking primary and redevelopment will change too. This makes a huge difference for who gets into the heaviest precipitation and who does not.

The ECMWF/EPS indicate the potential for banding induced snow accumulation early Monday in our south and eastern areas, possibly extending into the I-95 corridor (per EPS). The window may be brief but the timing is looking good, arriving after sunset Sunday.

Assuming the inland / GGEM-like tracks are not as correct, we should have no problems in the mid levels for snow (although I haven't seen profiles). The issue is the low level easterly wind (is that a pseudo-coastal front on the ECMWF Monday AM?) starting Sunday evening into Monday.

There is still time to see changes with this setup to bring the low on the euro further north, but that also means this could go the way of the GGEM. It is possible, though, that with a further north solution, that means the primary holds on longer. This reduces the precipitation amounts/intensity and cold air.

Pretty fine line in this setup and the line got finer because of the calender.

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Well for here in NW Chester County PA the latest model runs with the Wxsim tool shows a mix of rain and snow beginning early afternoon on Sunday transitioning to all snow by late Sunday evening with 10" to 13" of very heavy wet snow accumulating - temps will range between 32.2 and 33.1 during most of the very heavy snowfall rates during the overnight and during the day on Monday. Of course much will change by then....no doubt a miss to the south will be one of the future model runs - as the good ole GFS will always do a few days before any big event

the weenie dream to end winter and roll into spring, oh wait it's already spring

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0z runs were ugly... just a weak secondary that looks to shoot ene , not run up towards the benchmark. minimal precip being thrown back.

 

yes the whopper is history. Now it looks like a famous rays coating to 2 inches N&W of I95, a fitting end to this snow season

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0z runs were ugly... just a weak secondary that looks to shoot ene , not run up towards the benchmark. minimal precip being thrown back.

yes the whopper is history. Now it looks like a famous rays coating to 2 inches N&W of I95, a fitting end to this snow season

Weenies last stand:

a2e3erad.jpg

it's just on its own with this solution. The euro ensembles were pretty meager with strength of the secondary and an OTS/southern slider track.

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Weenies last stand:

a2e3erad.jpg

it's just on its own with this solution. The euro ensembles were pretty meager with strength of the secondary and an OTS/southern slider track.

 We're talking a few days out, models don't have the correct solution from this range. Just have to wait and see, although average highs in the area for late march are in the mid to upper 50's in the day.....has to be way below normal or have most of it fall at night.
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0z trend is north in the models, full sampling causing a change possibly. But i would worry about bl issues with a primary into ohio in late march

It can also depend on rate of precip; light precip more likely to be rain or mix. 00z GFS was an improvement in getting more precip here.

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