NortheastPAWx Posted March 16, 2013 Share Posted March 16, 2013 3" of snow here today, more on the way for the whole area....spring MIA. Go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Lets do this fellas....MDT needs to boost its average and UNV needs to break theres. I'm calling 3 plus area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Liking that GFS snow map... can't believe it came around to the Euro that quick! This one is really starting to look good for 3-5" MINIMUM I'd say. 6-9 or so still in the ballpark. Can't hurt that the ground's already covered here... probably close to 3" today! Looks like Monday should be good for our 2nd biggest event of the year at least.... This looks like a classic Central PA CAD thumping. Back in 2005 there was a similar kind of event on 3/22 I believe that dumped upwards of half a foot on much of the region. I'd say ~6" is where I'd start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Conservative like usual for now. Funny how in the disco it said they were following WPC snow outlooks which don't match this at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 LOL....1 to 2 we got more than that from the clipper today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Serious question though...do they have higher totals for earlier onset? Northeast Central PA seems to hang onto coldest air longest in a lot of modeling especially the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Conservative like usual for now. Funny how in the disco it said they were following WPC snow outlooks which don't match this at all. It does only really show only 10% for most of the area with some 40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 First call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Difference between euro and gfs are lolz. Gfs at 48 hrs has 850 line way up in ne pa. Euro at same time 850 line still down at md/pa line. Very similar to cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Here's the new map, The thing that strikes me is how CTP has the Laurels doing better than the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor. That seems to go against climatology. I can't ever remember scoring more snow in a CAD snow dump then AOO-UNV, without them doing just as well. It seems odd to me. I figured UNV would at least be 3-4 still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Difference between euro and gfs are lolz. Gfs at 48 hrs has 850 line way up in ne pa. Euro at same time 850 line still down at md/pa line. Very similar to cmc. I know the Nam has been bad this year, but it had the 850 line at 48 in a CaD signature down to the South of UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Here's the new map, The thing that strikes me is how CTP has the Laurels doing better than the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor. That seems to go against climatology. I can't ever remember scoring more snow in a CAD snow dump then AOO-UNV, without them doing just as well. It seems odd to me. I figured UNV would at least be 3-4 still. A bit better. That has to be totally model made though. Unless someone sneezed on the map while making it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Some watches and warnings up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 light snow here now, 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 What happened on the overnight models that has prompted CTP to lower our forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 What happened on the overnight models that has prompted CTP to lower our forecast? Not sure what you mean by lowered, they issued a watch overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 17, 2013 Author Share Posted March 17, 2013 Not sure what you mean by lowered, they issued a watch overnight. Went from 3-4" to 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 light snow here now, 33. Some weird low level moisture snows or something. It is light flaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy overnight models must have been rough...did euro cave? They are calling for less snow than we had with clipper. I thought we usually did better with cad than southwest pa but this could be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Went from 3-4" to 2-3". Wouldn't be concerned with that. If 12Z comes in big they will up it. 6Z was pretty huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Boy overnight models must have been rough...did euro cave? They are calling for less snow than we had with clipper. I thought we usually did better with cad than southwest pa but this could be different. Nope nothing happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 6Z NAM 6Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Eastern are they afraid to get burned....6z was best runs yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Eastern are they afraid to get burned....6z was best runs yet Playing it safe i'd say. They have some watches up and if they need to pull the trigger on more or warnings I am sure they will. Been a rough winter for forecasting. Better to have to up totals then lower then right before or after a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Eastern are they afraid to get burned....6z was best runs yet Euro: MDT MON 18Z 18-MAR 0.6 -3.9 1026 66 80 0.07 560 540 TUE 00Z 19-MAR 0.6 -1.6 1019 95 100 0.16 559 544 TUE 06Z 19-MAR 2.4 4.1 1009 98 100 0.37 556 548 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 2.8 2.8 1005 98 86 0.31 550 546 TUE 18Z 19-MAR 7.7 -4.1 1006 49 8 0.01 537 532 WED 00Z 20-MAR 1.2 -8.3 1009 50 85 0.01 528 520 UNV MON 18Z 18-MAR -1.9 -5.2 1024 72 85 0.07 558 540 TUE 00Z 19-MAR -1.6 -3.0 1017 92 100 0.17 557 543 TUE 06Z 19-MAR 0.0 0.8 1009 97 99 0.42 553 546 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 1.6 -1.1 1006 95 40 0.19 546 541 TUE 18Z 19-MAR 2.8 -6.5 1007 68 17 0.03 532 527 WED 00Z 20-MAR -4.5 -10.4 1011 67 91 0.01 527 518 IPT ON 18Z 18-MAR -1.8 -6.4 1026 58 99 0.03 558 537 TUE 00Z 19-MAR -2.0 -4.6 1019 89 99 0.23 557 542 TUE 06Z 19-MAR -0.5 0.1 1010 96 100 0.35 553 545 TUE 12Z 19-MAR 0.6 0.5 1005 98 75 0.27 547 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 My favorite model of the night. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 BTW, Euro had a major coastal development from 204-240 that was pretty cool. Still cold out to 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yikes Euro warmer that might have something to do with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 Yikes Euro warmer that might have something to do with it. Euro wasn't exactly warmer it just delayed precip even more. Which by looking at current radar doesn't seem so likely. Kept 850 line south of me through about hr 49. Which by that time on other models there was decent precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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