moneypitmike Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Some heavy squalls coming through with a barrage of visibility reducing dendritic aggregates with visibility dropping to near 1/4 of a mile during the heavier squalls. Not sticking to much due to solar insolation, but it may have dropped a 1/2" on the existing snow cover. More snow showers and squalls are being generated upstream of me as residual lake effect moisture upslopes over the Taconics and the west side of the Berkshires. Instability is helping these things get a little convective as well. Given the instability, a few lighter snow showers and flurries may make it east of the spine today. Yeah--they're making it to the east side, Mitch. If it's going to be 31* at 2:30p.m. in spring and there's 7" of compacted snow on the ground, might as well put some beautiful flakeage in the air to complete the scene. Trends weenies. 2 days ago it was off the SC coast Great--closer miss incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Flurries in Dorchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 looks like all misses for me. SW ct has best shot with this system as i mentioned a few days ago to LL thanks to track and confluence . perhaps if this ticks "north" IJD-PVD-PYM corridor can get in on somethin to That would include me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Only so far N this low can come with that ULL and confluence to our N. Minimal precip rates won't cut it now. Yeah fringe effects seem most likely... models are getting in fairly decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 i haven't had time to look at this closely yet so this is a pure weenie observation: we accepted the confluence/block-is-too-strong argument just before the blizzard too... only that was 120-144 hours out, not 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 There is still time There's still enough time for it to tick north and deliver a respectable late season snow. Tonight is the "run" for me, it either comes north substantially by then or it's buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro is not even close to a hit. Not sure what people are looking at. The system blows up and occludes way too early to effect us. Needs to come another 150mi N and not blow us as early. At this point the GFS and Euro are not too far apart. GGEM is a northern outlier and Ukie the southern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 not happening maybe SW ct sees a cpl inches in LLL land bc they are in best position WRT to NE confluence...this system is progressive...it's not happenin...if i lived on S coast and CC i'd keep an eye on it....that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro is not even close to a hit. Not sure what people are looking at. The system blows up and occludes way too early to effect us. Needs to come another 150mi N and not blow us as early. At this point the GFS and Euro are not too far apart. GGEM is a northern outlier and Ukie the southern. Just glancing at 81h vs 93h on the 0z on Wunder, those are pretty significant changes. I thought the 12z Euro was a pretty significant improvement. I like the system digging down to the west, I like that the old low is further ENE to our NE. Overall, at this range 150 miles is well within the average shift we've seen on the Euro from almost every event since January. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Just glancing at 81h vs 93h on the 0z on Wunder, those are pretty significant changes. I thought the 12z Euro was a pretty significant improvement. I like the system digging down to the west, I like that the old low is further ENE to our NE. Overall, at this range 150 miles is well within the average shift we've seen on the Euro from almost every event since January. JMHO. Yeah Euro was a huge improvement over 00z...but it still needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah Euro was a huge improvement over 00z...but it still needs some work.yeah not sure what some were talking about. It's massive improvement . It came another 200 miles north and gets measurable into CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah Euro was a huge improvement over 00z...but it still needs some work. It's close, some of the same things we've seen in earlier jumps north too as I mentioned. Let's face it this one is running into a more formidable wall, so primarily I think the threat is south of the MA border. But we're down to 100-200 miles at 3-4 days...easily made up if things break right. Improvement won't be incremental, it's a yes/no deal I think. We'll either see the s/w timing change enough tonight that we're back on, or we'll see the first escape too quickly and blah. I do like that the Euro increased the southward position of the digging s/w. The GFS is also toying with the idea of a little breakoff piece of energy coming backwards into NE. Kind of like what we saw a few weeks ago. It's not close enough yet to doing enough to make a difference, but we have an opportunity still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 yeah not sure what some were talking about. It's massive improvement . It came another 200 miles north and gets measurable into CT Yup, looks like 200mi N to me. 00z at 96h 12z at 84h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 another firehose possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It's close, some of the same things we've seen in earlier jumps north too as I mentioned. Let's face it this one is running into a more formidable wall, so primarily I think the threat is south of the MA border. But we're down to 100-200 miles at 3-4 days...easily made up if things break right. Improvement won't be incremental, it's a yes/no deal I think. We'll either see the s/w timing change enough tonight that we're back on, or we'll see the first escape too quickly and blah. I do like that the Euro increased the southward position of the digging s/w. The GFS is also toying with the idea of a little breakoff piece of energy coming backwards into NE. Kind of like what we saw a few weeks ago. It's not close enough yet to doing enough to make a difference, but we have an opportunity still. Euro is quite close to being good here, but its going to have a hard time breaking through I think. I do like that the 5h shortwave was stronger and we actually start getting flow out of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Day 10 threat on the Euro as well. April Fools Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Just saw that the FAA is closer their air towers on april 7 for good at HFD(Brainard),BDR(Sikorsky Bridgeport), DXR(Danbury Muni), GON(Groton-New London), HVN(Tweed-NewHaven), OXC(Waterbury Oxford) (CT) BVY(Beverly), EWB(New Bedford Reg), LWM(Lawrence Muni), ORH, OWD(Norwood) (MA) ASH(Nashua) (NH) WASHINGTON – Today, the Department of Transportation’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) reached the decision that 149 federal contract towers will close beginning April 7 as part of the agency’s sequestration implementation plan. The agency has made the decision to keep 24 federal contract towers open that had been previously proposed for closure because doing so would have a negative impact on the national interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 SREFs went north...looks like 0.25" to KASH and 0.50" to the MA/CT border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 12z ecens not much different from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro ensembles are bringing some precip into SNE....gets the 0.10" line into all of SNE just N of the MA/NH border with 0.25" just about to HFD-PVD-PYM We definitely need a good run tonight...I agree with Rollo on that. Tonight can't be a cruddy run...we are getting to that deadline time where the Euro won't shift more than 40 or 50 miles probably after tonight...and often its just smaller wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 This is a good sign... Lol. It has a lot to do to come back. Not quite Sox-Yanks 2004 but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Stomach virus FTL. What an evil plague this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Unlike the March 6-8 storm....this one actually reminds me more of 2/10/10 in how the upper low just gets squashed from the north and there's dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Unlike the March 6-8 storm....this one actually reminds me more of 2/10/10 in how the upper low just gets squashed from the north and there's dry air issues. what a hideous bust that was...we ended up with 5 inches, but even til the end, upton was going 18-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Stomach virus FTL. What an evil plague this is. Had that last weekend. Symptoms ended mid-day Monday and I'm still not 100%. Lots of fluids FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Unlike the March 6-8 storm....this one actually reminds me more of 2/10/10 in how the upper low just gets squashed from the north and there's dry air issues. that doesn't bode well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Stomach virus FTL. What an evil plague this is. Oh man:( feel better Scott.........it is brutal this year went through our house, hang in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Stomach virus FTL. What an evil plague this is. wait till your kids get into pre-school...you ain't seen nutin' yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Stomach virus FTL. What an evil plague this is. got that right. 3 days and just coming out of it. ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 wait till your kids get into pre-school...you ain't seen nutin' yet! Bingo! I get the tri fecta two small children and a teacher in the house, however the immune system does get strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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