WintersGrasp Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I do feel bad for the DC crowd...they deserved a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Even though Mets don't want to admit it, it seems like the 12z NAM is out peforming 12z Euro right now. Just look at the 6 hour forecasts on both models. Euro barely has any preciin in SNJ. Mount Holly even says the storm is over performing currently with stronger winds along the coast...they also say the storm should linger for days. (they obviously don't seem to be taking 12z Euro for granted) Any professional thoughts on this are appreciated. Mets preferred. As much as people hate on the NAM, it seems to be winning so far. How is the NAM winning? It's QPF numbers were way too high and the positioning of the low was too far west...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I feel bad for those guys-yesterday's models looked pretty solid for them. I think the daytime worst of the storm hurt quite a bit. The east flow brought quite a bit of warmth in below 850 as well. I believe once north and west of the cities amounts were pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is a bit east but still gets precip in here by tonight. It's also cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 decent vv's back into the area hr 12-15 on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 It's excellent to see the NAM come into agreement wiht the globals in such an expeditious fashion on this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 nyc 0.5 through 18 still snowing lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, NWS just downgraded to a winter weather advisory for just a few inches of snow, at most, for the whole DC-Balt area - epic forecast bust. Feel sorry for the snow enthusiasts, especially since 50 miles west got 18" or more of snow. I have a friend in DC who kept asking me what was up, as it was raining all day and I kept telling her to check the NWS and the AmericanWx threads - she's discovered a whole new world of geekdom - and isn't unhappy missing the snow, like most of us would be. Can't even imagine their forum right now. From 6-12" to 4-8" at 9:30 am to 1-2" now. Heartache - at least if we don't get much here, most rational people were only expecting 2-5". To be on board for up to a foot of snow and to get 1-2"- if they even get that - would suck. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At hour 18, we are snowing pretty well with temps below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 nam looks very reasonable to me now through 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 looks like the 12z rgem and nam are pretty close. Nam will likely end up being slightly wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM seems very accurate with the current rain/snow line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 At hour 18, we are snowing pretty well with temps below freezing I have no evidence but I doubt it gets that cold - there is no cold air to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam has it snowing in NYC by 7 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Do you guys not understand that those "nice" precip rates of .1-.25" are gonna have a tough time getting to accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I think people need to stop looking at the models and look at pressure falls etc and get into a nowcasting mode. Looking at radar you can see that the precipitation shield is contracting southeast and that the moisture is having a hard time moving to the north. The confluence is strong across the region and this has prevented the northward movement of the QPF ... Also the boundary layer is very warm .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I have no evidence but I doubt it gets that cold - there is no cold air to be found. couldn't agree more...although interestingly my dew has been dropping all day...went from 36 to 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 NAM seems very accurate with the current rain/snow line: That makes me feel slightly less skeptical of this map at 7 p.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a cutoff at the PA/NJ line. Parts of NJ could see 3 or 4" and the Lehigh Valley/Poconos might not see a flake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Do you guys not understand that those "nice" precip rates of .1-.25" are gonna have a tough time getting to accumulate? Nam has temps near freezing. Nam shows that little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I believe once north and west of the cities amounts were pretty good Sizeable difference I think between IAD and DCA, but I agree-big bust for DCA-BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is coming in nice once again with the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 couldn't agree more...although interestingly my dew has been dropping all day...went from 36 to 31 That's because the strong NE winds are advecting dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwang0725 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Wow, NWS just downgraded to a winter weather advisory for just a few inches of snow, at most, for the whole DC-Balt area - epic forecast bust. Feel sorry for the snow enthusiasts, especially since 50 miles west got 18" or more of snow. I have a friend in DC who kept asking me what was up, as it was raining all day and I kept telling her to check the NWS and the AmericanWx threads - she's discovered a whole new world of geekdom - and isn't unhappy missing the snow, like most of us would be. Can't even imagine their forum right now. From 6-12" to 4-8" at 9:30 am to 1-2" now. Heartache - at least if we don't get much here, most rational people were only expecting 2-5". To be on board for up to a foot of snow and to get 1-2"- if they even get that - would suck. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/ Their version of NYC March 2001... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Moderate snow at hour 30 with the freezing line on top of the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 at hr 30 the nam has moderate snow for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm not sure why I'm watching the NAM frame by frame after such a letdown versus it's solutions as close as this AM's 6z run. It's kind of like going back to the girl that just dumped you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 best vv's of the event overhead at 30 probably going to hang around for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Still snowing good at hour 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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