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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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I guess everybody has a letdown feeling with this storm. Somebody will say how can you be let down with an 11.5 inch snow? Well, it goes to two things which for me ended up being the same thing. What I was hoping for was an all day mod-heavy snow. I never wanted 20 inches or even a foot. I was hoping for about 6" that fell over about an 8 hour period. Then I hoped it melted the next day. I like to watch it snow. Well what I got was 9" by 7am (over performer btw) and then 2.5 more by about 9:30. So, I got to see snow for a couple daylight hours, and spend about an hour and a half plowing the driveway and shoveling the walks and deck.

The early part of the storm was great. Forecast of 3-5 turned into 9. The part I wanted, the all day long, was what fell apart. I knew as soon as the precip took on the ne-sw direction back here that it was over. We were too far from the low at that point. We only do really well back here with precip coming from the south, be it sw, se, or just s. Precip with a northerly component to its direction just won't work this far west and this close to the mountains. Feb 10, 10 is a perfect example of that. It's like the low wound itself up too quickly for the long duration event back this way.

Now I hope winter is over. It was a tough year, much tougher for some than for me. We can all look ahead to next year with hope. One fun part for me has been hanging around this forum and being able to share thoughts with so many outstanding people.

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The analysis of all the model runs was really good with this storm. We dissected them from top to bottom. Hashed out all the fine details. Rode them to the highest high even as snow was already falling.

The one thing we kinda missed was that they were all f***ing wrong.

Your analysis was/is much appreciated :)

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I think one problem with how it evolved was that initial WAA band that was supposed to really crank, ran way out ahead of the upper level system and lost its support.  This really killed its ability to become a super band, instead it was just 8 hours of light to moderate precip.  I don't think the models, the globals anyways, did badly with the second half of the storm.  They were all hinting the storm would go through that messy transition and that banding would become more spotty the second half of the storm.  Problem was we should have all had 4-8" of snow by then and with a colder boundary due to dynamic cooling we could have then picked up a few more inches in bands and it might have worked out.  That initial band running out ahead and weakening really pulled the rug out of this system.  It just never got its act together. 

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Good stuff :lol:

Lol, I wonder if you would be saying this if you had been rained on all day instead of the nice snow that you got.

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Did I really just read 2 complaints about getting 10+. Anyone see the movie falling down? I might re-enact tomorrow.

And all I want is more than 2 damn inches :axe: .

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Your analysis was/is much appreciated :)

I appreciate it but apparently it's mostly for entertainment purposes only. It's been a whole lotta typing and no shoveling.

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Wow. Can't believe this busted so badly for DC--I'll be back in McLean this Friday, and was looking forward to 12" of concrete. :(

it's march this stuff is going to melt in 45 seconds tomorrow

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I appreciate it but apparently it's mostly for entertainment purposes only. It's been a whole lotta typing and no shoveling.

Keep plugging Bob, next year all your work will pay off. Look if the Ravens can win the Super Bowl and the Orioles can make the playoffs in the same year it shows that miracles are possible.

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I guess everybody has a letdown feeling with this storm. Somebody will say how can you be let down with an 11.5 inch snow? Well, it goes to two things which for me ended up being the same thing. What I was hoping for was an all day mod-heavy snow. I never wanted 20 inches or even a foot. I was hoping for about 6" that fell over about an 8 hour period. Then I hoped it melted the next day. I like to watch it snow. Well what I got was 9" by 7am (over performer btw) and then 2.5 more by about 9:30. So, I got to see snow for a couple daylight hours, and spend about an hour and a half plowing the driveway and shoveling the walks and deck.

The early part of the storm was great. Forecast of 3-5 turned into 9. The part I wanted, the all day long, was what fell apart. I knew as soon as the precip took on the ne-sw direction back here that it was over. We were too far from the low at that point. We only do really well back here with precip coming from the south, be it sw, se, or just s. Precip with a northerly component to its direction just won't work this far west and this close to the mountains. Feb 10, 10 is a perfect example of that. It's like the low wound itself up too quickly for the long duration event back this way.

Now I hope winter is over. It was a tough year, much tougher for some than for me. We can all look ahead to next year with hope. One fun part for me has been hanging around this forum and being able to share thoughts with so many outstanding people.

 

Yeah, we were golden last night with the precip moving in from the SSW.  As soon as that changed this morning the rates let up and that was the kiss of death for us.  Had this been January we still could've salvaged another 2 - 3 inches from the light stuff that fell up to 1:30 PM.  That lull around 9:30 allowed the boundary layer to warm and I suspected then that we weren't going to be able to recover from it.  It's a real shame that we got our biggest snow in 3 years yet are still left disappointed.  I feel bad for everyone.  DC/Balt crew just got royally screwed.

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Thanks just needed to make sure nobody thought this was just a minor bust.

 

it was an across the board bust.. but some of your comments are out of context of course. for the record i didn't think it was producing feb 2010 totals. the pattern was similar.

 

i dunno what happened last night.. cascade effect. i swear everyone got each other into super weenie mode and it ran through multiple spheres.

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I appreciate it but apparently it's mostly for entertainment purposes only. It's been a whole lotta typing and no shoveling.

Maybe we should have a MA rule next winter of no weather discussion, models especially more than 48 hours into the future. Call it the 48 and under disco thread. All other threads would be contests, banter, or past event discussion threads. Suspend for one day anyone who made mention of anything beyond 48 hours.

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it was an across the board bust.. but some of your comments are out of context of course. for the record i didn't think it was producing feb 2010 totals. the pattern was similar.

 

i dunno what happened last night.. cascade effect. i swear everyone got each other into super weenie mode and it ran through multiple spheres.

Don't beat yourself up you did just as good as any other met in the world with this, except that 15 year old wiz kid. Just remember your usual strategy of being pessimistic works here 95% of the time.

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it's march this stuff is going to melt in 45 seconds tomorrow

Actually, that's one thing this has going for it. If I had 4" of normal snow or fluff, it would have been obliterated by the rain and rising temps this afternoon. Instead, we have super ratio snow that fell at 6:1 and then sucked in all of the rest of the precip that fell later. Now it is just condensed paste that may hang on for a few extra hours.

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it was an across the board bust.. but some of your comments are out of context of course. for the record i didn't think it was producing feb 2010 totals. the pattern was similar.

 

i dunno what happened last night.. cascade effect. i swear everyone got each other into super weenie mode and it ran through multiple spheres.

 

Yes we entered a weenie trans like state.  And yes that 925MB map showing the colder than forecasted temps I'm guessing was the problem. I'm guessing a bad init on models had the airmass off the Jersey shore way to cold, I still am struggling to get below 37F at 9pm.

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Don't beat yourself up you did just as good as any other met in the world with this, except that 15 year old wiz kid. Just remember your usual strategy of being pessimistic works here 95% of the time.

I'm sure it will be a long time before I'm optimistic again

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I'm sure it will be a long time before I'm optimistic again

That's what I am afraid of, even if we get a Nino next winter you will probably poo poo every storm.

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I'm sure it will be a long time before I'm optimistic again

 

If it makes you feel any better, I spent 2 hours shoveling wet cement this afternoon in nearly gale-force winds, and by 10 AM tomorrow you and I are going to have the exact same amount of snow..... if not before.

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I'm sure it will be a long time before I'm optimistic again

We were probably too "believing" for a couple of reasons. One, it's March. Two, we had no sign of a cold air mass. Three, regardless of what some say, we had too much sun and warmth yesterday. That heat has to go somewhere.

This setup from Dec 15-Feb 15 would have produced a snow storm 10 out of 10 times.

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Did I really just read 2 complaints about getting 10+. Anyone see the movie falling down? I might re-enact tomorrow.

 

Meh, I'd be bummed too if I'd slept through the vast majority of it.

 

EDIT: apparently WinterwxLuvr was up since 4am. In that case he's got no room to complain. I'm jealous as fook of all the awesome pics he's got.

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Did I really just read 2 complaints about getting 10+. Anyone see the movie falling down? I might re-enact tomorrow.

It ain't what it's cracked up to be, Bob. If you like a totally sloppy mess everywhere, you'd be thrilled. Spring snow is only fun while it's snowing. It sucks as soon as it stops. And if you didn't even see 80% of it fall and it cost you an hour or two of work just to be able to leave the house, it sucks even worse.

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Meh, I'd be bummed too if I'd slept through the vast majority of it.

EDIT: apparently WinterwxLuvr was up since 4am. In that case he's got no room to complain. I'm jealous as fook of all the awesome pics he's got.

I tried to get up at 4 and watch it snow. I snapped a pic , sat in a chair at the breakfast table and tried to watch it snow. That lasted about 10 minutes. Watching snow by the deck light isn't that special, and I just went back to sleep.

Edit: 24 hours from now, I'll have the same amount of snow as everyone else.

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Serious question: Will anyone actually examine why the NAM was so off here? I mean, last night we were all high-fiving how "the NAM had scored a coup, the NAM was back, the NAM led the way."..... Err,... It was a pretty big fail, even for a model that at one point suggest 70 inches of snow would fall in part of New England in the Boston Blizzard 4 weeks ago.

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This storm didn't even feel like March snow, it felt more like April, or at least late March post-equinox. I think the reason was the lack of cold air supply which should've been better even in early March. I've heard of these April storms with lots of accumulation, but also a lot of switching between rain and snow at 34-35. Not to mention the sloppy cement it was when I tried shoveling the drenched 3".

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This storm didn't even feel like March snow, it felt more like April, or at least late March post-equinox. I think the reason was the lack of cold air supply which should've been better even in early March. I've heard of these April storms with lots of accumulation, but also a lot of switching between rain and snow at 34-35. Not to mention the sloppy cement it was when I tried shoveling the drenched 3".

 

march is april now. just wait till feb is june.

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