Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,515
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    chrislittlenews
    Newest Member
    chrislittlenews
    Joined

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

Recommended Posts

To this day, I swear I was robbed of a good 5 to 6 inches of snow that was melting on contact -- even with a base on the ground -- on the evening of Feb. 5 2010. And I was in elevated Upper Northwest, not even in the warmer Downtown.  Few believe that, but from 8 to 10 p.m. on that night,  while snow was piling up like mad in the suburbs, seemed the city was still too warm.   Can only imagine what today would have been like.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I got about 3.5 inches, but we have some compaction. Snow falling off the tree in the front demolished the front yard snowpack.

 

Niiiiiiice CCB. This light snow is blinding. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had about 5.5" before the melt started...down to 4" now fredericksburg....If you had told me last night that RIC would get more than DCA with DCA having a WSW for 6-10" and RIC had a forecast of rain ..i would have :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Probably not, but my point was if this setup was in Jan or Feb, we'd be looking at big snows.

IAD got .93 and BWI got .73. Unless it was 10 degrees outside and we had > 10:1 ratios, thats 9" and 7". Not exactly HECS. Both the GFS and NAM were way off with QPF. I think the euro was pretty close, but I have no idea how it verified with the storm formation. 

 

Especially since those precip totals are over 15 hours. There was no "thump" with this storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as of 4:30

 

IAD: 3.3"

DCA: 0.1"

BWI: T

For DCA, this is likley a record high---- number of posts about this storm to amount of snow ratio. (almost infinity).

 

MDstorm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

as of 4:30

IAD: 3.3"

DCA: 0.1"

BWI: T

BWI is going to pull a stunner when it reports less than DCA for the "event"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry for you DC / BWI folks.  Last night I gave in to my inner weenie and allowed myself to think this was going to be an epic area-wide event. 

 

 

Tale of two storms: the first waa portion was great for us (10" imby), but the coastal was an outright disaster (4.5 hours of light snow netted negative 4 inches and lots of wind). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Correction: We have light to moderate steady RAIN, a wind driven RAIN.

 

I'm enjoying this comma head rainfall so much. It's sticking everywhere, on the roads, the sidewalk, the fence, the bushes, and even rain on top of snow! This is going to be epic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm done tracking all weather for the year. You can only stand so much fruitlessness before you realize that you may need medication or a stay in a ward to continue doing it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lessons learned for next winter: models are far from infallible, especially on the fringes of winter.  People here say it all the time, but models are tools, not answers. 

 

I think a lot of factors mixed in here.  Although there was plenty of poo-pooing about it here yesterday, I can't help but think if we'd been a few degrees cooler yesterday, the precip starts earlier and accumulates at least marginally faster overnight.  The ocean likely was also simply too warm, and with a marginal airmass when the coastal transfer happened, it was too much to overcome.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lessons learned for next winter: models are far from infallible, especially on the fringes of winter. People here say it all the time, but models are tools, not answers.

I think a lot of factors mixed in here. Although there was plenty of poo-pooing about it here yesterday, I can't help but think if we'd been a few degrees cooler yesterday, the precip starts earlier and accumulates at least marginally faster overnight. The ocean likely was also simply too warm, and with a marginal airmass when the coastal transfer happened, it was too much to overcome.

East of the fall line was going to have problems but if the storm evolved as advertised even after snow was falling, it would have been much much different. Even DC supported snow till late in the game as it was.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To this day, I swear I was robbed of a good 5 to 6 inches of snow that was melting on contact -- even with a base on the ground -- on the evening of Feb. 5 2010. And I was in elevated Upper Northwest, not even in the warmer Downtown. Few believe that, but from 8 to 10 p.m. on that night, while snow was piling up like mad in the suburbs, seemed the city was still too warm. Can only imagine what today would have been like.

I was in Brookland at the time. I am not sure if your location is more urbanized than mine at the time (Brookland has the feel and density of a suburb). However, I vividly recall that evening and, in Brookland at least, the snow had begun sticking from around 7:00 on. We lost several hours it had been snowing before 7, but little/nothing after.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Trust me we aren't expecting much.

I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty.

It's in the mid 40s right now in midtown.  Like I said, I'd be surprised if we get more than 5".  That said, N & E of here could get a lot more.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem was not a lack of qpf.

 

We have plenty of qpf, its just that some of it turned out to be liquid. Like right now, a wind driven freezing cold rain in 38 degree conds. What snow we have is going fast. Even the sidewalk snow has been demolished, my shovels denied.

 

You go outside you get a faceful of cold moderate rain driven by wind gusts over 40 mph.

 

 

In retrospect I am glad now that I was foolish enough to stay up all night. A lot of prudent folk went to bed at midnight, got a good sleep, and were bright eyed and refreshed for Round Two and the epic comma head snows this afternoon. I didn't. I was a fool and stayed up til 945am this morning. I got to see all of the snow all night as well as that EPIC snow band at 920am. I finally went to bed at 950am and snoozed til 4pm. 

 

I woke up to a well formed comma head and truly epic, epic rains. Too bad I missed seeing the comma head form on the radar.

 

Yeah, we got demolished alright.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't want to be a hater, but if NYC gets 12 inches....it won't be pretty.

 

 

If I had to bet I'd say they are going to feel the pain we felt today. Reading that forum is like "the NAM looks cold" sounds like us 24 hours ago. Look where that got us.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1.27 liquid so far. At least the models got that right

Euro seems to have been best up here at least. Don't really see many verified purple obs this far north like the American models had.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's in the mid 40s right now in midtown.  Like I said, I'd be surprised if we get more than 5".  That said, N & E of here could get a lot more.

I'd be surprised if you got more than 2".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After today's epic bust, I'm feeling nostalgic about the early to mid-2000s. An era of busts!!!

I remember looking at radar during the Jan. 2005 event, trying to pivot the moisture stream in a way that was both realistic and kept D.C. snowing. A short time later the warnings were cancelled, ignominiously. And I added one more failed Miller B to my list (The List of Failed Miller Bs)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×