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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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Did any models show what went down in ric? I never really paid attention. I convinced that was the beginning of the end for us. Once the slp went ballistic down there, we never got rockin up here.

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The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. 

 

Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. 

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I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

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I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

 

dt had dc in 8-12 before anyone else.. never saw his last map but still

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UVVmet84, as a long-time lurker and reader I welcome you to the board and ask that you stick around.  You certainly add to the collective knowledge of this place.

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I'm struggling to understand why DT is crowing...he busted pretty hard as did everyone.  He did get NE MD in only 2-4", which is better than what most other forecasts turned out. 

 

His first call had 8-12 inches for NE MD. He is spinning.

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light snain now west of BWI

Don't you draw the queen of models, boy

She'll beat you if she's able

You know the queen of climo is always your best bet

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That red orange spot on the radar has been sitting on top of eastern Sussex county DE and Ocean City MD for over an hour.  They must be getting drowned.  Light rain here in western Sussex with plenty of wind.

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The initial WAA precip not laying down the blanket of snow many models initially anticipated was also a large problem in addition to the synoptic evolution. Indeed that wasn't the major player because the features didn't align as predicted, but it certainly would have helped those that had snow all day, but no base to accumulate on thanks to wet ground. 

 

Overall, its a number of things. Synoptic evolution however dominates, and dynamics couldn't override a warmer BL. It's not like the BL initially was that warm, with areas quickly over to snow last night despite temperatures in the upper 30's to near 40. However, the spotty precip allowed the column to saturate enough and bring dews up to the point of no return, and after that, it was downhill. 

 

I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33.  I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night.  But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end.

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Snowplow driver just did a loop down our street, probably confused by the fact his services are not needed.

 

I bet he still got paid for it

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I had 1.5" at midnight last night from the initial WAA precip and was only at 2" at 7am this morning, and 4-5" by the end, despite moderate to heavy snow almost all day and temps 32-33.  I think part of the problem was that the 1.5" which was not super wet last night turned into 2" of slush by this morning - must have mixed or something during the night.  But the initial snow did not seem to help as the warmth won out in the end.

For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. 

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It's interesting that Dulles is reporting 3.3 inches of snow. I'm just under 3 miles away, 100 feet higher up, and can walk outside of my nice warm garage and measure 5 inches of compacted snow. I wish I'd put out a snowboard and kept up with measurements...

I guess elevation made that much of a difference?

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For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued. 

 

Fair enough, and thanks for the explanation, since I am by no means any sort of expert.  I wasn't complaining, just surprised it happened the way it did, especially with very high rates at times - I have seen 3"/hr rates and it seemed like that was what it should have been at times today, though you are right that there were significant lulls in between the heavier periods.

 

Areas with elevation near here did really well - Purcellville, Bluemont, etc - less than 10mi away but more than twice as much snow.

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It's interesting that Dulles is reporting 3.3 inches of snow. I'm just under 3 miles away, 100 feet higher up, and can walk outside of my nice warm garage and measure 5 inches of compacted snow. I wish I'd put out a snowboard and kept up with measurements...

I guess elevation made that much of a difference?

 

I don't think it was elevation but rather the location of the heavier bursts of snow.  I am also at 5" compacted and I am only 255ft ASL.  Another guy in Gainesville which is about 5mi from here was reporting 8".

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For your locale, I find it more of a problem that the lulls in precip warmed the column and raised the dews as stated above. Also, the banding wasn't present as some of the later models had shown, and the WAA precip was robbed as the primary subdued.

How did every model miss this while we were already receiving waa snow? That's just plain odd. Overwhelming guidance was saying to expect over .5 liquid by 7-9am. That's why I was really surprised when I woke up. I had a sinking feeling then but still refused to believe a complete bust was on tap.

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This is more like the "March 5-7 White Lion Obs/WISHCASTING Thread" for those of us east of I-95!

Anyway, not sure if it was mentioned, but did anyone give any attention to those above normal water temps off the coast? Neither did I. Any kind of easterly component pretty much sealed the BL fate for those of us under 250'.

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I bet Bull Run Mountain did really well since this area (Aldie-Haymarket) saw really good rates for a while and they are at 800-1200 feet up there.  Anyone who lives there reporting a total?

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This is more like the "March 5-7 White Lion Obs/WISHCASTING Thread" for those of us east of I-95!

Anyway, not sure if it was mentioned, but did anyone give any attention to those above normal water temps off the coast? Neither did I. Any kind of easterly component pretty much sealed the BL fate for those of us under 250'.

 

The temps are anamolously warm there, and yes, the column was susceptible to the advecting of that warm flow on east winds. 

 

What happened to crashing temps as the storm bombed? If anything, temps went up all day.

The crashing of temps would have been more so in the mid levels, however not as much for the surface. The surface wasn't really supposed to crash, especially considering no true cold air source within hundreds of miles. 

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What happened to crashing temps as the storm bombed? If anything, temps went up all day.

Think we hoped rise would be limited. We did a lot of hoping one way or another.

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What happened to crashing temps as the storm bombed? If anything, temps went up all day.

The winter weather expert on TWC Greg Postel said there was a lot more warm air aloft than was expected. Plus even when our winds turned towards the north it was to warm there to help us at all.

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That red orange spot on the radar has been sitting on top of eastern Sussex county DE and Ocean City MD for over an hour. They must be getting drowned. Light rain here in western Sussex with plenty of wind.
yep....power is out as well

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