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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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LWX just lowered my daytime snow accum to "1-2" POSSIBLE"

 

and they're still too high         !

and they wonder why there's always talk about reducing NWS budget    lol

 

Did you check your area forecast?

 

Middle River

  • This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
  • Tonight Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 9pm. Low around 33. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

 

 

Edit:   Looks like Mt. Holly won the arm wrestling match against Sterling.

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GFS and sadly the RGEM were the ones that called that.

And spotty banding instead of a solid shield-- there are all these random locations in Fairfax and P William counties that met the lower end of the forecast.

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light snow and sitting at about 5" in ezf ..on the low end but not really a bust here.  Super easy to make a snowman with this..make a snowball and start rollin and it pulls all the snow to the ground + a bunch of leaves lol.

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Just popping in to mention it's been straight-up snowing for hours here in eastern Carroll and the measurable accumulation has steadily decreased to nothing.  The snow is so wet it's actually melted my snow.

 

So, for those of you getting rain, don't worry -- the snow isn't any better.

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45 degrees, occasional thunder, and RA/SN here in SBY.  So much precipitation that the column is saturated even with the surface at 45...  Been raining cats and dogs all day.

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Just popping in to mention it's been straight-up snowing for hours here in eastern Carroll and the measurable accumulation has steadily decreased to nothing.  The snow is so wet it's actually melted my snow.

 

So, for those of you getting rain, don't worry -- the snow isn't any better.

 

About the same here.  My snow thrower hates me after spending the last hour and a half trying to clear the 5" of barely frozen water off of the driveway.  I have never seen 5" of accumulation this wet before.  I am soaked to the bone.

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The NWS employee needs to be fired...

I live at just about there and this person reported another 1" of snow since 1130.  It's been raining...

 

 

  3 NW Frederick 5.3 144 PM 3/06 NWS employee

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And spotty banding instead of a solid shield-- there are all these random locations in Fairfax and P William counties that met the lower end of the forecast.

That was my earlier point. It wasn't totally a temp thing. I saw model after model after model spit out .4+ in multiple 6 hour periods. I saw 700 panels pasting us with big uvv's to go along with sim radars hammering me with rates. That is what busted and busted huge.

I know exactly what type of storm the models told me I was going to get but that's not how it happened. And ric is still trying to figure out why they had severe thunder snow.

DC had thundersnow with half mile vis. Something went seriously wrong.

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The NWS employee needs to be fired...

I live at just about there and this person reported another 1" of snow since 1130.  It's been raining...

 

If it's rain that is one thing, but the measurement is how much has fallen not how much is on the ground - if they used a board and cleared it frequently it might show different numbers.  We had crazy rates here earlier and I bet at least 8" fell and accumulated at least temporarily but it is now compacted to 4-5" of liquid cement.

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It's a sign of how pathetic our winters have been that this is still the biggest "snow" storm since 2010 for many of us in Fairfax/Loudoun/Prince William.

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As somebody said before....although the clown maps aren't taken seriously, almost all of them had BWI with little to no snow. Also, I believe it was the RPM that had NOTHING from DC to Balt along 95. I literally haven't seen a flake. This area sucks for snow... who wants to buy a condo in Snowshoe with me? $75,000 will get us a place to stay and actually see snow every winter and ski!

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Feel bad for you guys....Although I got snow in Front Royal and I shouldn't complain, I wouldn't have made the road trip if I knew I was only getting 9-10" of snow, I was hoping for 20". The fact that the NAM can switch main QPF region 30 miles east under 24hrs from an event is just a joke. I knew after 00z runs last night I was gonna get screwed compared to some bullseye spots. 

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That was my earlier point. It wasn't totally a temp thing. I saw model after model after model spit out .4+ in multiple 6 hour periods. I saw 700 panels pasting us with big uvv's to go along with sim radars hammering me with rates. That is what busted and busted huge.

I know exactly what type of storm the models told me I was going to get but that's not how it happened. And ric is still trying to figure out why they had severe thunder snow.

DC had thundersnow with half mile vis. Something went seriously wrong.

Agreed.  This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust.  The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing.  I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why.  Wasn't any particular model either.  GFS hinted at something like this at times.  Maybe Euro did a bit.  But all busted pretty hard. 

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This hurts especially bad because this morning Al Roker had my area in the 7-12 inch range for this storm.  If you can't trust Al, who can you trust?  :cry:

 

MDstorm

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Agreed.  This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust.  The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing.  I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why.  Wasn't any particular model either.  GFS hinted at something like this at times.  Maybe Euro did a bit.  But all busted pretty hard. 

GGEM had been showing a snow to rain system all along. Many including me laughed at the Idea of a warmfront moving down from the NE. Next time I will take it seriously.

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Feel bad for you guys....Although I got snow in Front Royal and I shouldn't complain, I wouldn't have made the road trip if I knew I was only getting 9-10" of snow, I was hoping for 20". The fact that the NAM can switch main QPF region 30 miles east under 24hrs from an event is just a joke. I knew after 00z runs last night I was gonna get screwed compared to some bullseye spots. 

You should have gone about 30-60mi to your south.  That's where the 20+" totals are.

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Continues to snow light to moderately in Sparks, MD (21152).  Been snowing all afternoon but all I see is more grass.  :cry:

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Agreed.  This was FAR more than a temp bust or even just a QPF bust.  The whole track and development of the storm was dramatically different from what models only 12 hours out were showing.  I hope NWS/LWX/HPC (someone) does a post-mortem to figure out why.  Wasn't any particular model either.  GFS hinted at something like this at times.  Maybe Euro did a bit.  But all busted pretty hard. 

I agree, the evolution was also hindered by the transfer or energy which was late in the game. It really did hurt us that it was a miller B type system, as the close transfer didn't really allow any of the colder air (relatively speaking) to enter the picture. It shut the flow off, and then the energy robbing did occur through the h5 center down in Virginia. QPF/temps were all dependent on evolution, an alignment of upper air support and dynamics, and more. 

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