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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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Just goes to show you...no matter what p-type maps are showing, you can't go against marginal low level temps in a March snowstorm. It's not just a model failure...it's a forecasting error as well.

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Remember most of the clown maps showed a sharp cutoff of snow totals to E and NE of DC?  No reason to ever take the clown maps seriously, but that in itself maybe should have been a red flag that I could have paid more attention to.

yes, but later runs had snow for us and those runs with clown maps showing no snow had substantially more qpf, which hasn't fallen either

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Remember most of the clown maps showed a sharp cutoff of snow totals to E and NE of DC?  No reason to ever take the clown maps seriously, but that in itself maybe should have been a red flag that I could have paid more attention to.

 

But it's more than that imo. Yes, there was going to be sharp cutoff but places west did terrible too. I thinks it's more of a huge bust calculating intensification and dynamics. It simply did not go as planned. 

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The snow gradient did better south than north.  This wasn't just a west/east failure.  South Central VA greatly exceeded their forecast for little to no snow.  This thing just got totally inverted. 

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Its funny how weenies always get attacked for saying "the storm will make its own cold air," but that's exactly what we're counting on this time...

 
Just saying...

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Why is he pissed? How much cool weather does he see in a year?

He should have gone to the Shenendoah this time.

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Did the northern stream have anything to do with this? Did the GL Low act as kicker, shunting the system further south than expected??

There must be a meteorological explanation for why this happened. This outcome is just too divergent from what was forecasted by any of the Big-3

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Cantore was pissed just now on MSNBC. Standing on green grass on the mall at 38 degrees. Said snow is over in DC.

 

He's getting a taste of what it's like living in this craphole in winter.

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the low seems to be consolidating along the VA Capes and it is sending the bands, as a result, into Richmond/SE VA EDIT: like a figure skater going faster as he/she brings his/her arms inward

I don't think that heavy stuff in DE makes it to us (BWI)

Looking at sat pics and water vapor, I think that u.l trough near the Great Lakes that was originally thought to phase with the system, has shoved it S/SE and helped to screw us (or at least BWI)

but I guess it doesn't really matter why at this point, does it?

Shame on you for letting models within 24 hours of an event raise your expectations.  From now on, its radar/sat/surface obs on the day of the event.    :bag:

 

MDstorm

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The snow gradient did better south than north.  This wasn't just a west/east failure.  South Central VA greatly exceeded their forecast for little to no snow.  This thing just got totally inverted. 

Agreed. When parts of northern Baltimore County at nearly 1,000 feet are struggling with rain mixing in yet RIC is reporting heavy TSSN you know there is an issue.

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Just saying...

You're all talking past each other. It snowed 7" in Oakton, 6" in Vienna according to TerpEast. The storm did fine in places where the rates were intense+ some elevation. What BobChill's trying to say is that that scenario was supposed to have happened throughout the western suburbs, not just in an isolated pocket in NoVA. That's the model failure.

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Why is he pissed? How much cool weather does he see in a year?

 

I remember watching him in Central Park before/during the March 2001 debacle.  New Yorkers were giving him serious grief by the time he finally got out of there.  Like you say, he has a darn good life so he can certainly suffer the occasional bust.    

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