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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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good news, I'm enjoying the spring rains

 

Just cause you're not getting snow doesn't mean everyone needs to give up tracking it.  

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NWS written forecast had me listed as 2-4" pretty much all day today, yet I haven't seen a flake since 9am, though plenty of heavy rains.

 

They've just bumped it to 3-5" now after the 12:30 update.  

 

 

Am I missing something here?

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Looks like center of low is just south of Crisfield, MD? If so, that's pretty far north from what was projected.

What I think you might be seeing is a mesovortex which aligns with that flanking convection. Nonetheless, I believe that is associated with pulling the low more northward as you stated. 

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the underlying model for the SREF Is one of the worst weather models imaginable....SREFS arent very good

 

Something is just flat-out wrong with those SREF "plumes," and I never bother looking at them, personally. They're drastically overdone in almost every event I've followed in every part of the country, even when the NAM itself isn't. I suspect there must be something in the algorithm they use that either overestimates ratios or is too generous with precip type for marginal soundings.

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Final total precip ?

HGR 0.18"

MRB 0.42"

 

Every model had 2 to 5X this amount for these sites.  I feel very fortunate to have pulled off a 4" snowfall from this debacle.

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We have a lot of wind which caused our power to go out this morning along with the land line phone.  Both are back on now. There has been two rolling thunders which went on and on.  Kinda wierd.

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Areas to the N and W rapidly drying up on radar?? Sure seems that way. Ridiculous plume coming in off the ocean, but it appears to lose intensity every time it reaches the bay.

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Lots of rain mixed in now here after about 3" of snow. Great time to shovel if you haven't yet, nothing is sticking once you get to the bare pavement.

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everyone relies on the models, pro and amateur

when the models generally bust, the pro and amateur forecasts likewise generally bust with an occasional lucky forecaster going against the guidance for the storm

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Mom is reporting 6" in Vienna, not snowing as heavily as the radar indicates.  Very slushy snow.

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the low seems to be consolidating along the VA Capes and it is sending the bands, as a result, into Richmond/SE VA EDIT: like a figure skater going faster as he/she brings his/her arms inward

I don't think that heavy stuff in DE makes it to us (BWI)

Looking at sat pics and water vapor, I think that u.l trough near the Great Lakes that was originally thought to phase with the system, has shoved it S/SE and helped to screw us (or at least BWI)

but I guess it doesn't really matter why at this point, does it?

I just saw this but Nina FTW ... again!

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Looks like my forecast will verify for points west of DC starting with the beltway, and badly bust for anywhere else east of there.

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Location: Capitol Hill 2:01pm

Observation: pavement and concrete surfaces are completely wet and becoming still wetter; puddling is covering most surfaces and has resulted in numerous puddles; snow accumulation is present in the crevice on a car just above wiper blades and adjacent the hood at the bottom of the front window; visibility is maximum/unfettered/as far as the eye can see; -RASN of which approx. 90% is rain and 10% is "snow"; temperature is above-freezing and rising

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Wow

 

TRAFFIC ALERT: WB Bay Bridge tractor trailer overturned and hanging over edge. Expect closure and delays!

Winds at Thomas point are 38 sustained gusting to 44

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Remember most of the clown maps showed a sharp cutoff of snow totals to E and NE of DC?  No reason to ever take the clown maps seriously, but that in itself maybe should have been a red flag that I could have paid more attention to.

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It's a colossal failure on every single level 

No model was a winner in this one. Granted, it was a complicated setup, but really a rough job this time around. Thermals, system not strong enough - whew - what a disaster.

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