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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

 

I knew it was a mistake, but I threw my snow wheels on the car last night just in case. Now I'm just too lazy to drive to find snow.

 

I figure once I leave, it'll shut down out there, the roads will clear :(, and I'll be missing the burst back here in Alexandria.

 

If I were to go, I'd probably head out 66. The truth is, wet snow generally isn't as fun to drive in as the more powdery stuff.

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Model fail:

Supposed to rain western richmond...they get 6-8".  Supposed to get 10-14" here and we get a mix.

 

I'll check...maybe we ran the NAM upside down.

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One (of many) problems is that the bands haven't actually been moving the temperature much.  I hit the afternoon high before this last band hit, and dropped a whopping 0.4 degrees during the band.  The boundary layer is just too warm, and without extreme dynamics like down by Richmond, it just isn't going to happen for DC east.

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Not sure anywhere within 60 minutes is worth the effort. Maybe in 90 minutes you could get out to Faquier County or far westen Loudon. But you may be underwhelmed regardless, so would think hard about how far you want to go vs. just waiting till next year.

 

It will probably be melted before he gets there.

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Finally beginning to get a new slushy accumulation.  It is snowing like a sonofabetch.

There is almost nothing on the radar by you either...

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Trying to convince housemates to go on a snow drive...

Me: anybody want to drive 45 mins or so and see some real snow?

Housemates: uh, why would we want to do that....?

Me: CAUSE IT'S SNOW

This should be more self-explanatory.

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this particular one seems to pack a punch. Better proximity and trajectory. Or I'm just being a hopeless weenie who should remove himself from this board and drop the hobby. 

No sir, you along with the rest of the guys are not wrong in parlaying the remainder of your hope in what the DOX radar shows. There sure is a firehose, and my no means is our low moving east out to sea right now. It is being tugged a bit west in a wobbling fashion through the flanking line that exists on the southeastern side. 

 

The h5 low and h7 circulations are becoming vertically stacked. Overall, the truth is that the storm is trekking more w and north than anticipated, and as I mentioned earlier a more traditional CCB like area could develop shortly. The lapse rates are driving these bands, and frontogenesis is healthy enough to support the thundersnow. Don't expect the low to move longitudinally in the next few hours, its about parked for now. 

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No sir, you along with the rest of the guys are not wrong in parlaying the remainder of your hope in what the DOX radar shows. There sure is a firehose, and my no means is our low moving east out to sea right now. It is being tugged a bit west in a wobbling fashion through the flanking line that exists on the southeastern side. 

 

The h5 low and h7 circulations are becoming vertically stacked. Overall, the truth is that the storm is trekking more w and north than anticipated, and as I mentioned earlier a more traditional CCB like area could develop shortly. The lapse rates are driving these bands, and frontogenesis is healthy enough to support the thundersnow. Don't expect the low to move longitudinally in the next few hours, its about parked for now. 

 

you are my favorite new poster on the planet of the united states of the world. 

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Been in my office in Downtown Leesburg for a couple hours - does not appear to have been much more accumulation - so I'd still say around 4 inches. Not sure what has happened at my house (about 8 miles South) - but we typically get more down there (perhaps some elevation).

 

Current obs are very light mix. Roads in Downtown Leesburg are just wet; not slushy.

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Finally beginning to get a new slushy accumulation.  It is snowing like a sonofabetch.

I'm sure I will be scolded for posting here, but I am just a bit north of the M/D line and it is ripping here right now.  Temperature is at 35, so not much accumulation.

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Trying to convince housemates to go on a snow drive...

Me: anybody want to drive 45 mins or so and see some real snow?

Housemates: uh, why would we want to do that....?

Me: CAUSE IT'S SNOW

This should be more self-explanatory.

 

Come pick me up.  16th/spring.   I'll be the only black guy waiting to go on a SNOW CHASE.  I'll be easy to spot.   See you in 10.

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it sure does. slp isn't scooting away either. it's kinda wobbling. I'm ALL F'N IN on the superbandedfirehose

Just not sure on temps and how much we get. Prob better for places like NE MD than me but our last hope so ill hug,

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Trying to convince housemates to go on a snow drive...

Me: anybody want to drive 45 mins or so and see some real snow?

Housemates: uh, why would we want to do that....?

Me: CAUSE IT'S SNOW

This should be more self-explanatory.

 

"Normal" people can be so boring :thumbsdown:

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Not sure anywhere within 60 minutes is worth the effort. Maybe in 90 minutes you could get out to Faquier County or far westen Loudon. But you may be underwhelmed regardless, so would think hard about how far you want to go vs. just waiting till next year.

Centreville is worth it if you like a few inches with mod snow and stickage

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No sir, you along with the rest of the guys are not wrong in parlaying the remainder of your hope in what the DOX radar shows. There sure is a firehose, and my no means is our low moving east out to sea right now. It is being tugged a bit west in a wobbling fashion through the flanking line that exists on the southeastern side. 

 

The h5 low and h7 circulations are becoming vertically stacked. Overall, the truth is that the storm is trekking more w and north than anticipated, and as I mentioned earlier a more traditional CCB like area could develop shortly. The lapse rates are driving these bands, and frontogenesis is healthy enough to support the thundersnow. Don't expect the low to move longitudinally in the next few hours, its about parked for now. 

Get this guy a beer.

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Just not sure on temps and how much we get. Prob better for places like NE MD than me but our last hope so ill hug,

 

for whatever weird reason i've been one of the cooler spots. Sitting at 33.1. doxband or death

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you are my favorite new poster on the planet of the united states of the world. 

I appreciate that, but I wouldn't say it if it didn't have some potential. Relatively speaking, it helps that the low and h5 circulations have moved east of DC's longitude. Essentially, it comes down to if we can yield a latent heat release and dynamics through the Dover area bands. It was snowing in that area earlier, and that is a good sign for those in the best set-up for this action. The storm is slower, so the bands are in the midst of a lag really. In some instances, in storms that are overly dynamic, expect the radar to lag on ground truth. New technologies via dual pol can assist you with it in some ways, but not 100%. 

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Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. High near 36. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

 

Lets see, not snowing, barely raining, 0" on the ground. Why are they even bothering? 

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