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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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Which model is on track for best verification (so far)?

GFS/EURO/That Sordid Little NAM

I say the EURO seems to be doing better than I would have liked.

Couple things: 1)It suppressed the system a bit further south than either GFS or NAM 2) It had a temperature profile notably warmer than that of the GFS or NAM

 

the warm one

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the band showing on dox radar is now approaching the bay bridge. lwx radar looks like it's going to make it. if THAT doesn't wow anybody then I'm going back to deep deep sadness and pouring a 12oz glass of bourban. 

I may down the 1/4 gallon of Jack single barrel I got.

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.1 at 7a... So maybe .3?

Got chided last night for sticking with my "no more than 4" for DCA call. Still a ways to go, storm looks almost stalled and trying to figure out if center is east of our longitude yet? Now is prime radiant sun time now but that will be over in another two hours. I am glad we are getting some accumulating snow as this saves forecasters in general from complete public rancor over those 9-12" maps for immediate DC that were being displayed last night.

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the band showing on dox radar is now approaching the bay bridge. lwx radar looks like it's going to make it. if THAT doesn't wow anybody then I'm going back to deep deep sadness and pouring a 12oz glass of bourban. 

Pour me some bourbon too please.  Seen some of the heaviest snow I've ever seen without any accumulation whatsoever.  Tough.  Oh well.  Ready for a good torch.  We had a shot.... Bring on baseball.

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Except around like 830 these have been extremely underwhelming bands when in the yellows etc.

Absolutely.  20-25dbZ should be good for more than 4mi vis snow. 

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Except around like 830 these have been extremely underwhelming bands when in the yellows etc.

 

this particular one seems to pack a punch. Better proximity and trajectory. Or I'm just being a hopeless weenie who should remove himself from this board and drop the hobby. 

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the warm one

We'll see who wins on precip.  I've got over .5" of QPF.  Euro was still too warm on low-level temps (for the surface at least) and NAM was too cold.  I'd say GFS was closest just going off memory.  It's the crappy precip rates that we're getting that's keeping this all RASNy garbage. 

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Got chided last night for sticking with my "no more than 4" for DCA call. Still a ways to go, storm looks almost stalled and trying to figure out if center is east of our longitude yet? Now is prime radiant sun time now but that will be over in another two hours. I am glad we are getting some accumulating snow as this saves forecasters in general from complete public rancor over those 9-12" maps for immediate DC that were being displayed last night.

 

It was a very good call...

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

 

Just get on 66 West to 267.  Plenty out here just over the Loudoun line.  Reston, etc closer in have 3-4 as well.

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this particular one seems to pack a punch. Better proximity and trajectory. Or I'm just being a hopeless weenie who should remove himself from this board and drop the hobby. 

 

I have had composite loop of DOX radar on for over an hour watching it :(

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Radar does look sick. Firehose..

 

it sure does. slp isn't scooting away either. it's kinda wobbling. I'm ALL F'N IN on the superbandedfirehose

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Absolutely.  20-25dbZ should be good for more than 4mi vis snow. 

We are barely getting flurries/drizzle under 25dbz...

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I'm gonna be upset when the next rainstorm hits and the majority of the area doesn't get the day off from school and what not...the commute in this morning was awesome.

 

 Rain is now our new winter event, that's why schools were closed!

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

 

Go as far west and as high in elevation as possible. Seriously in my town a few hundred feet is making a world of a difference today.

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

Highly advise it if you know how to drive in it. Legit snow out on 66 towards centreville. I got tired of waiting for this nonsense

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

 

Get on I-66 West and see how close you can get to the Shenandoah Valley in 60 to 90 minutes.  Depending on conditions, you should get close enough to see some 10"+ accumulations.  

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So I'm in NW DC. Thinking of going for a drive to see real snow. Thoughts of best places to go within 60-90 minutes where I can see at least a few inches?

 

Not sure anywhere within 60 minutes is worth the effort. Maybe in 90 minutes you could get out to Faquier County or far westen Loudon. But you may be underwhelmed regardless, so would think hard about how far you want to go vs. just waiting till next year.

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Can someone explain the debacle here? I refuse to believe that it all comes down to temperatures being a bit too warm. There must have been some synoptic feature or some major flaw the skewed both the GFS and NAM. Not even the EURO's solution was as futile.

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