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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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Looks like the >20" will happen in the high spots. How much does Leesburg have.

 

 

Um have you read the obs. Most areas struggling to get 2". Leesburgh may have 4-5"

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Looks like a lot of the area is mixing more now

 

remember the soundings showed 9z was the dicey time when its really showing up around 18z. The whole storm evolution seems to be progressing 6-9 hours slower than the models anticipated, even the higher res short range models. I think this is easily one of the biggest model busts of recent time this close in, both from hires, regional, and global models, both from a perspective of storm evolution and QPF

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Postel on TWC basically said DC is done

Which we probably already knew

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Loudoun Co has asked drivers to stay off the roads. Downed trees and powerlines.

Back roads must be really slushy.

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2.75" so far and snow at rate of 1-2"ph but about 10% is big fat raindrops and the accumulation rate is marginal.

How much for DCA so far?

.1 at 7a... So maybe .3?

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Harrisonburg--20 inches in the grass. 15-16 on the roads.

 

Last 2 hours temp has rise, heaviest snow, not really accumulating.

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It's 3.5" where I am in Cockeysville, but just a few miles down the road it looks just like you described......ugly slop and not really much of anything sticking.

WBAL just did a live shot from York and Timonium rd. and there was literally nothing on the ground.

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Is there a chance that it cools down and places that are getting rain right now go over to some snow accumulating snow later this evening? Its our last hope for the winter it seems.

 

Seems the idea that the I-95 area would have temp problems was very legit.

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remember the soundings showed 9z was the dicey time when its really showing up around 18z. The whole storm evolution seems to be progressing 6-9 hours slower than the models anticipated, even the higher res short range models. I think this is easily one of the biggest model busts of recent time this close in, both from hires, regional, and global models, both from a perspective of storm evolution and QPF

 

 

the DCA QPF numbers may end up more "euroesque"

 

Had 2-3 6 hour frames in the .35 .4 range.

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Postel on TWC basically said DC is done

Which we probably already knew

 

Now that Greg is big time he trolls so well :cry:

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Loudoun Co has asked drivers to stay off the roads. Downed trees and powerlines.

Back roads must be really slushy.

 

Not sure that means anything. Think DC is also asking people to stay off the roads..

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epic surprise storm here light snow a pic a few miles down the street

 

DSC02123.JPG

 

 

 

14" drifts up at 410'

DSC02125.JPG

Again, if you want snow, go South to VA!

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here is all the mesonet stations below 33F. if your not near these areas your ratios will be drastically lower. congrats to the winners though!

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Model fail:

Supposed to rain western richmond...they get 6-8".  Supposed to get 10-14" here and we get a mix.

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the DCA QPF numbers may end up more "euroesque"

 

Had 2-3 6 hour frames in the .35 .4 range.

I agree the euro was probably more right on QPF amounts, but it was still pretty far off on the placement.

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Um have you read the obs. Most areas struggling to get 2". Leesburgh may have 4-5"

 

Umm, I said above 1K. Looks like the hills did well.

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I have boarded 13.5 for this storm....But I only have about 10 or 11 inches on the ground. Compaction sucks. Was hoping to hit 20 but not a chance now.

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WBAL just did a live shot from York and Timonium rd. and there was literally nothing on the ground.

 

I was just there an hour ago......it's amazing what a little elevation can do. But I think I'll be lucky to hit 5" with the way this is going, it's a very sloppy 3-4" here and not adding up well.

 

I'm just glad I got some cool footage of a few good bands.

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Had enough of loserville so I drove out to centre vile...legit snowstorm in progress. Roads slushy. Plows around. Good rates. Trip success.

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Still going hard here.  Flake size back to cotton balls again. Seems to be accumulating a little better than previous, but still 5.5-6 tops.

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the band showing on dox radar is now approaching the bay bridge. lwx radar looks like it's going to make it. if THAT doesn't wow anybody then I'm going back to deep deep sadness and pouring a 12oz glass of bourban. 

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DOX radar showing a lot of merging all the yellows and reds together into one conglomerate as it moves W... should be interesting to see what it does

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Which model is on track for best verification (so far)?

GFS/EURO/That Sordid Little NAM

I say the EURO seems to be doing better than I would have liked.

Couple things: 1)It suppressed the system a bit further south than either GFS or NAM 2) It had a temperature profile notably warmer than that of the GFS or NAM

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the band showing on dox radar is now approaching the bay bridge. lwx radar looks like it's going to make it. if THAT doesn't wow anybody then I'm going back to deep deep sadness and pouring a 12oz glass of bourban.

Except around like 830 these have been extremely underwhelming bands when in the yellows etc.

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