whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 CTP really low on the southern border counties based off last few NaM and GFS runs. Must be waiting on some support from the euro before upping totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 CTP update for watch expansion: Interesting. Well, I never got skunked in 09-10 from any of them. 4 in the Dec. one, 15 from the first Feb one and 9 from the second. If people want to throw around the early Feb 2010 stuff, I say go ahead. Do you remember what the models showed prior? I am thinking the snow came further north than modeled but I can't recall for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 0z GFS through 54hr very similar to 12z... slightly slower so on a couple frames it looks south but it really is nearly the same track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is a whiff for anyone not in the extreme southern tier of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is a whiff for anyone not in the extreme southern tier of PA. Seriously? WTF?!?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 GFS is a whiff for anyone not in the extreme southern tier of PA. what whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Met analysis from the NYC forum says the GFS did something strange this run...random vortmax escaping and producing a QPF bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I was a reader on these forums for the longest now posting it still amazing the posters that have no clue or do it for attention.LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Wiff? GFS gets the dark blue to the Lake Raystown. How is wiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those totals over eastern PA look good, but you need to look at how you get there too I think. Those totals are accumulating over 24 hours, and getting .3 inches of QPF, in early march, with low ratios over a 24 hour period is likely not to add up to all that much accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those totals over eastern PA look good, but you need to look at how you get there too I think. Those totals are accumulating over 24 hours, and getting .3 inches of QPF, in early march, with low ratios over a 24 hour period is likely not to add up to all that much accumulating snow. we have it starting overnight plus banding features will help out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If that's a swing in the dirt than can I see Joe Carter's World Series clinching home run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 To me consensus is building for an impressive warning event for counties bordering md. North of there it is still sketchy. Cutoff for precip will likely be north of unv with unv getting a few wet inches of snow. AVP.. IPT and FIG...prbly miniscule...if iy turns corner AVP may do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And I am not trying to troll anyone on here, honestly, but take a look at 6hr precip totals from hour precip totals from hour 30-54, you will see moderate precip never really makes it more than 25-50 miles into PA. Those accumulations are the result of getting .1 inches of QPF over several 6 hour periods. Hope it bumps north, because I think that is the only way there is significant accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Those totals over eastern PA look good, but you need to look at how you get there too I think. Those totals are accumulating over 24 hours, and getting .3 inches of QPF, in early march, with low ratios over a 24 hour period is likely not to add up to all that much accumulating snow. its cold paweatherguy1 worry about your area......to say what you said prior is no true at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 5, 2013 Author Share Posted March 5, 2013 Interesting. Well, I never got skunked in 09-10 from any of them. 4 in the Dec. one, 15 from the first Feb one and 9 from the second. If people want to throw around the early Feb 2010 stuff, I say go ahead. Do you remember what the models showed prior? I am thinking the snow came further north than modeled but I can't recall for sure. I remember the evolution of the models coming north as we neared the Feb 5-6th event being similar to what's going on here, though I don't think the bullseye is going to come as far north with this one... as well as the other disclaimers like we probably won't get high end totals that approach that storm save for maybe some 20+ amounts in the Northern VA mountains. I went into that storm with a WSW for like 8-14 inches with the southern border counties being the bullseye and some of the very heavy bands ended up setting up just a bit further north giving me about 18" and other parts of Blair 20"+. Still though, the SREF has pretty hefty snow means for the southern tier. Guess the GFS isn't going to concur with higher QPF this run, def a lil drier but seems to be a similar looking track... not a disaster but it tightened its northern extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree paweatherguy, but our southernmost counties will be fine(Adams,Franklin etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 And I am not trying to troll anyone on here, honestly, but take a look at 6hr precip totals from hour precip totals from hour 30-54, you will see moderate precip never really makes it more than 25-50 miles into PA. Those accumulations are the result of getting .1 inches of QPF over several 6 hour periods. Hope it bumps north, because I think that is the only way there is significant accumulation. models have trended north all day...even the EURO what is your problem? why did NWS put a WSW for our area up? go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 its cold paweatherguy1 worry about your area......to say what you said prior is no true at all. Look, here are the 6 hour increments starting at hour 30. Outside of the extreme southern counties, it is mostly very light snow over a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 models have trended north all day...even the EURO what is your problem? why did NWS put a WSW for our area up? go to bed. HOLY DT'IAN RESPONSE. EPIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Precip should start after dark. I see no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Border counties are in good precip most of the time. The .1 to .25 will depend on temps/ time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree paweatherguy, but our southernmost counties will be fine(Adams,Franklin etc.) I agree with this, and if it bumps north, areas like Harrisburg and Lancaster will do fine as well, and push warning level. That total precip map is extremely deceiving. Getting .3-.5 inches QPF over a 18-24 hour period might be fine if you had 15 to 1 ratios and were sitting at 20 degrees, but when you are likely going to be sitting between 30-33 degrees, and have a long period of light snow, it will be very hard to get that to actually accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Precip should start after dark. I see no problem me neither....people are unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I agree but those areas should be expecting little. SEG, UNV, IPT and AVP are not likely to get into good rates, but this isnt our storm in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 HOLY DT'IAN RESPONSE. EPIC! love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 If you get a good layer of snow down first, usually the lighter stuff during the day will continue to accumulate. I've seen it happen enough to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 I can't speak for the eastern areas, but for SWPA / Ridges the 00z GFS is about 30-40 miles south with the northern extent of the heavier precip vs 18z (Essentially cuts some folks qpf in half). Storm seems to be a bit slower as well. The tight gradient exaggerates even the tiniest shift. Barring this being the start of an adjustment South I see no reason the next run couldn't bump north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Precip should start after dark. I see no problem It honestly doesn't matter when the precip is falling...looking at the GFS verbatim, many are looking at those blues and greens and are saying "wow..that's going to be a good 3-6 inch event" but whn you break it down, and see that for most of the storm, any area north of york is in fairly light precip, but for an 18-24 hour period, you have to take that into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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