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Central PA - March 2013


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I have a rough map drawn with my take on amounts with this thing, but nobody's seeing it until I see what 0z models do up through the Euro haha.

 

This storm has been frustrating to forecast..even though the snow threat for southern Penn seems to be zeroed in fairly well at the moment, there remains some major differences on what it does in eastern Penn and beyond. I'd keep an open mind with the further north GFS/GEFS/SREF and not just toss it to opt for the non-American guidance (specifically the Euro/GGEM/UKMET camp). The difference between the 12z GGEM ensembles and the 12z/18z GEFS is vast. 12z GGEM has only .25-.50" running the southern tier counties and .25-.50" up in Boston while the GEFS by comparison has much higher amounts in PA and over 2 inches of QPF in Boston. I personally don't think a trajectory that culminates in hitting SNE is all that impossible. CPC derived NAO values are negative but not all that negative. I would tend to put more weight on the solutions that just go straight out or even ESE off the coast if we had a very strong NAO (like a -2 or -3) but we have just a modest one so I think there is some play room there. Consensus between both camps remains the best option. 

 

NAO

post-1507-0-25204900-1362446265_thumb.gi

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I feel this close in the models will hold  or creep further north

As much as I don't want to agree w/ wmsptwx, I think he is right as we often see a north trend stop inside of 24 hrs and a slight correction south sometimes happens.  The true weenie in me wants this to be completely wrong, and for another tick north to give many of us that reside in the donut hole to get filled in...even if it is basically in 1 storm.  I'g guess the 0z's to tick back south, but to still deliver us a moderate to low end warning event in the LSV.  Another tick north and hey...I might get another weekend on my sled before putting it to bed for the summer.

 

Nut

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As much as I don't want to agree w/ wmsptwx, I think he is right as we often see a north trend stop inside of 24 hrs and a slight correction south sometimes happens.  The true weenie in me wants this to be completely wrong, and for another tick north to give many of us that reside in the donut hole to get filled in...even if it is basically in 1 storm.  I'g guess the 0z's to tick back south, but to still deliver us a moderate to low end warning event in the LSV.  Another tick north and hey...I might get another weekend on my sled before putting it to bed for the summer.

 

Nut

 

Regardless what happens in the backyard I foresee Blue Knob and/or Seven Springs in my future this week as they already have about as good of conditions as you generally get on PA slopes the first week of March and they'll probably manage 10"+ out of this storm.

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expanded the watch--

PAZ027-028-056-057-059-051215-

/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0005.130305T2300Z-130306T2300Z/

MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...NEWPORT...

HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON

903 PM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE. STRONG EAST WINDS COULD

ALSO CREATE BLOWING SNOW AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...EAST AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY

TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER

INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO

BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE.

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CTP update for watch expansion:

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... EXTENDED WATCH NORTH INTO MIFFLIN...JUNIATA...PERRY...DAUPHIN AND LEBANON COUNTIES LATEST GEFS AND SREF RUNS. STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN NORTHWARD EXTEND OF SNOW BANDS WITH UPCOMING SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH POTENTIAL FOR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS IN THIS AREA TO WARRANT A NORTHWARD EXTENSION IN THE WATCH. THIS PUTS CENTRE COUNTY AND THE STATE COLLEGE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF AREA OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH...BUT IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL LOCALLY. GEFS U-WIND ANOMALIES -3 TO -4 OVER AREA AND STRONGER TO SE. VERY IMPRESSIVE.

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