Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 36hr looks like it would be a big hit. Wes, if you put 6z / 12z h5 side by side you can see it's a little more tightly wound and ridging a little sharper in front. I would assume this is why precip moved in faster? It's just a little more amped @ h5 and stronger overall. But a little more south so we're still wobbling around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Virginia getting hammered at 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That's what I was thinking. I think wetter compensates for a slight jog south? I don't like depending on NAM QPF to overcome the 500 track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 a little slower again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wes, if you put 6z / 12z h5 side by side you can see it's a little more tightly wound and ridging a little sharper in front. I would assume this is why precip moved in faster? It's just a little more amped @ h5 and stronger overall. VA may be the bullseye on this one, but I t hink we'll do ok if you look at h5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't like depending on NAM QPF to overcome the 500 track. Truth. I dunno, looking at the latest panel compared to the 42 hour..the H5 doesn't look too far south in comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't like depending on NAM QPF to overcome the 500 track. And as I say that, 48 straightens out and looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 March snow in Washington, D.C.: A precedent for ending winter with a bang http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html Good stuff Ian. This event will surely be listed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 h5 energy at 48 is basically just south of the NC/VA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is another VA crush job. 48 everyone is getting dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 BOOM. Looks pretty good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 post 48 hrs should be some huge qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Big "X" for the vortmax on the hr 48 panel is in an identical spot as the hr 54 from 6z. Literally identical. Contouring is a touch south, but vortmax hasn't budged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 .75 QPF at DCA at 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is another VA crush job. 48 everyone is getting dumped on. 51 is crazy.......NOVA crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nice http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Big "X" for the vortmax on the hr 48 panel is in an identical spot as the hr 54 from 6z. Literally identical. Contouring is a touch south, but vortmax hasn't budged. Yep..was just about to post that. The actual vortmax (or the x) is in the same exact spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 48 sim radar has the best band DC-->Baltimore, basically all of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 51 is crazy.......NOVA crush job Looks like a NOVA DC Central MD crush job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 post 48 hrs should be some huge qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_700_rh_ht.gif i havent seen uvv like that since 2009-10 winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Wes's 850 low is in a great place. I know how much he talks about the 850 low with big storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 nice http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12&image=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif That sim radar is just crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nice http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_048_sim_radar.gif That's impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We've been dissecting and discussing the SREF membership over and over again in our model evaluation group meetings. The real issue seems to be related to the (unperturbed/base) initial conditions used within the SREF membership....i.e., all of the ARW members use one set, the NMM use another, and the NMMB a third (where the ICs are the RAP, GFS, and NAM ICs, IIRC). I know that the complaints have been noted and folks are working on a better solution, but the membership as currently constructed does seem quite problematic as it results in extreme clustering. good they have noticed this... the SREF could be a really excellent tool if they correct that problem. As it is now, the ARW seem to skew things a lot. It doesnt matter much for DC but if you were looking at the Philly area, using all the 21 SREF it looks like 15 of 21 give them significant precip...seems like good odds, but if you remove the ARW its only 6 of 14. You would get a completely different projection picture from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 this thing will develop and eye once off shore, you watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i havent seen uvv like that since 2009-10 winter 51 is ridiculous on h7.. excellent placement of the h5 for us as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i havent seen uvv like that since 2009-10 winter Jan '11 was a uvv monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 mitchnick what do you think about the LWX disco using I95 as the rain/snow line? I know many of our events end up that way, but it appeared that BWI soundings have suggested more of a snow than rain profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 In the NAM's wheelhouse right now. We are getting crushed. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep..was just about to post that. The actual vortmax (or the x) is in the same exact spot. You guys both beat me to it. also someone mentioned the 48 simulated radar, it is a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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