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First Week of March Nor'Easter


Capt. Adam

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Quite a few bullish members for precip. That does include snowfall as well. The SREF mean has 7 inches at Philly. 11 members are higher than the mean. So it's not a typical outlier skewed mean. 

I know the SREFS have been bad this year, but can they possibly be this bad?? eta9y3y8.jpg Temps aside, that's a pretty damn large difference in regards to the precip shield...

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Quite a few bullish members for precip. That does include snowfall as well. The SREF mean has 7 inches at Philly. 11 members are higher than the mean. So it's not a typical outlier skewed mean.

Let me guess, the arw members are the higher outputs?

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Remember when the nam had Phl area to your area in 2-4 inches qpf for the bliz. That's all I'm gonna say

 

Hey, I'm just saying the model verbatim. The people need to know!

 

And now on spite, I'm going to post the clown map when it comes out and you're not going to delete it. :thumbsup:

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Let me guess, the arw members are the higher outputs?

Nice mix actually. I was surprised by the SREF today but that made the 18z NAM outcome predictable. I don't think this is set in stone though I think 33% chance of something more bullish like GEFS/SREF/ 18 z nam 67% chance more like a EC or GFS run for the final outcome. 

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