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First Week of March Nor'Easter


Capt. Adam

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Why are you here now, then?

 

I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content.  People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out).  People here are reasonable and sane. 

I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask.

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Why are you here now, then?

 

I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content.  People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out).  People here are reasonable and sane. 

 

 

More levelheadedness with less weenie outbursts in this forum cuts down on the post number dramatically :)

It's hard to comment on snow chances since the slightest of shifts could make it either a lot more rain or a lot less QPF. Models are starting to converge on an impactful solution that is mostly concentrated over the DC area, with PHL dealing with a greater likelihood of low-level temp issues if the better precip rates don't make it far enough north. Until the run-to-run consistency is there, it's tough to really speculate about any of these details. The takeaway from the 12z suite is that odds are increasing but there's still a ways to go, so details can wait.

 

The Mid-Atlanticers don't want him, either :P

 

Agree with both of these...don't have much to add. 

 

Meanwhile, at work I am already getting questions on timing. Would be easier to pinpoint timing if we could pinpoint where it's going to snow.

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This is why I never post in this forum, the southern part of this forum needs to be merged with the Mid-Atlantic forum and the northern part with NYC Area. There are just not enough active posters around.

 

Probably because we're 5 days away, energy isn't even onshore yet and still for our immediate area there is a ton of uncertainty (although the 12z gfs <3). Like famartin said - we're cool, collective cucumbers here.

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I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask.

Well... going into another subforum and making a post complaining about the whole forum is not going to win you friends or influence people ;)

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Agree with both of these...don't have much to add. 

 

Meanwhile, at work I am already getting questions on timing. Would be easier to pinpoint timing if we could pinpoint where it's going to snow.

Haha yeah, this was my Facebook post a few hours ago:

 

"Yeah there could be a big storm back east next week... or it could stay south... or not develop... or be more rain than snow... or... you get the idea."

 

Which got 7 likes ;)

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I do find it interesting that this thread is a ghost town compared to the one in the dc forum......

I think many of us got screwed pretty bad this year so what's all the fuss until a day or two before the potential of a storm. When model runs occur there is more than enough information to keep anyone updated. Finally, no weenies who keep on babbling! 

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Oh I might have to do something similar!! My family lives in Richmond, VA so I was thinking about sending a forecast that goes something like...one of us will get decent snow, just not sure who.

 

Haha yeah, this was my Facebook post a few hours ago:

 

"Yeah there could be a big storm back east next week... or it could stay south... or not develop... or be more rain than snow... or... you get the idea."

 

Which got 7 likes ;)

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We need a banter thread for this storm because this is a good topic to discuss. You are one of my favorite posters and I would read this forum just to see your ideas. It may seem like i'm complaining about "everyone" but I just want things to change but maybe i'm being too forceful and harsh.

 

However, during large events there is not enough real-time discussion and banter. Some people may not like that but I prefer a less strict environment. NYC Metro and Mid-Atlantic have great storm-mode environments with an ideal influx of information and culture, rather than the semi-consistent flow of obs and met-only posts that often predominate here.

 

Thanks for the compliment :wub:

 

I guess Tombo could get a banter thread started and move some posts over there...

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Why are you here now, then?

I like this forum, it has a manageable amount of content. People don't monger and go crazy (and then get ridiculously depressed when things don't pan out). People here are reasonable and sane.

I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask.

Hilarious that you think our subforum shouldn't exist because it's not filled with weenie posts every 5 seconds. And the reason why your posts get deleted is, you're a horrible poster. Possibly the only one to be hated in multiple subforums. And our mods here won't put up with your crap either. Sorry for the rant guys, just felt the need to defend our forum.
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That's uhhhhhhhhh very conservative given the latest model solutions/trends. Almost all the stuff I've looked at since 00z on the Euro and GFS are a lot better than that. Only the 00z GFS Op. supports that QPF map.

And add the 18z GFS Op... lol. #derp

Waiting to see the ensemble trends.

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I'm here because I get harassed and my posts get deleted if I venture into other subforums. Really a stupid question to ask.

To respond to your deleted post, Philly and NYC already *were* a combined subforum for the first several months of AmWx's existence... that was a disaster.

Merging with the MA subforum would also be a disaster. Instead of complaining, perhaps take a hint?

Also, to reply to your OTHER deleted post (sensing a theme here?): if you wanted to start a banter thread, you were free to do so. NYC and MA have terrible reputations, and deservedly so. We don't need to be like them. Our subforum is perfectly fine as is.

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18z GFS ensemble comes in further north, more amplified compared to the 12z ensemble. 18z op run is an outlier (just in case you couldn't tell already :P).

I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario..

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I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario..

The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

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The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season :axe:

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The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol

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At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season :axe:

not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol

Ha ha I thought that was the case at PHL. DCA has a pitiful 0.4" as its biggest event this season (twice), so with this storm it may very well beat that in under 1/2 hour. Been a miserable year of mixing/misses at both locations.

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my thoughts on tonight's model runs. 

 

1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z. 

2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC) 

3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF. 

 

We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out. 

 

Overall

 

Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course.  

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my thoughts on tonight's model runs.

1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z.

2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC)

3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF.

We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out.

Overall

Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course.

Well you are 1 for 1 so far. 00Z GFS looking similar to 18Z. On Edit, its worse, no northern stream at all.
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