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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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Bastardi needs a new last name lol jk. In what world does someone just throw some of the snowiest analogs out there for next winter, which is 8/9 months away.

An El Niño doesn't mean squat right now if it happens.

If we have raging -pna still and a weak niño it could happen. Obviously a strong niño and all bets are off.
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If we have raging -pna still and a weak niño it could happen. Obviously a strong niño and all bets are off.

El Ninos correspond to +PNA. They typically happen during the +PDO phase though, as their most severe effects happen when the El Nino and PDO are in sync with each other.

 

I'd much rather play our odds with a Nino than a Nina.

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JB is calling for a major winter storm next week after the brief warmup.

 

Nope, unless you speak French (of the Canadian variant).

Larry Cosgrove 

Forecast thought for the day: the March 7-9 storm may be stronger than many think, and the system March 13 - 15 bears watching for Appalachia, the Mid-Atlantic, New England and the Maritime Provinces. As in "winter storm".

Wrong.

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another ugly JB bust shaping up...from today:

But I think the heaviest is going to fall between where the March 2-3 storm hit and the one this week , from the lower Ohio valley through Pa and NJ

-

nope.

 

latest JB comment:  "GFS back south again. UKMEY back further north than last night. I dont believe model handling of this as it continues to look bizarre to me."

 

makes no mention of canadian.

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latest JB comment:  "GFS back south again. UKMEY back further north than last night. I dont believe model handling of this as it continues to look bizarre to me."

 

makes no mention of canadian.

he'll hold out until Sunday morning, well after everyone else has moved on and then say he's giving up-he should stick to general pattern analysis and skip the storm predictions...

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What if there's a total flip at 0z, how will everyone react then. If everyone's discounting it now then shouldn't they all discount that too. If not then it proves most are hypocritical and incredibly biased Either that or they'll say the 12z runs were just a blip.

we'd be 12 hrs closer so that's something. It won't be happening though, if anything, they're going further south--look at that PV moving south....

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we'd be 12 hrs closer so that's something. It won't be happening though, if anything, they're going further south--look at that PV moving south....

The PV is not the problem with this. It's the energy that's holding back and is digging too far south that's causing issues. It was a problem will the early March system because the PV was even stronger back then and further south but more importantly the southern disturbance was very weak to barely anything. The southern energy with this is much stronger and more consolidated than with that storm. 

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Friggin' Weather Channel is saying at 1 pm latest models are a smidge north so New England watch out. How old is the info they must be using?! And this from Postel.. Isn't he one of their winter weather leads? Shameful..

They are always 24 hrs behind in the winter..always

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