Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Sign in to follow this  
earthlight

Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread

Recommended Posts

DT showing off more of his non-professional immature behavior

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk

Id take JB in my court over DT any day of the week. DT is immature and honestly he doesnt have to the LR forecasting prowess as JB. We all have documented JB's tendency to hang onto to an idea too long in the face of overwhelming model support that contradicts his forecasts. However, his forecasts are not that far fetched and him, d'elio and Ryan Maue do a great job together. I know paul here loves Ryan Maue's work

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

read JBs latest

Just read it and it was as mature of a response you can ask for. DT is a clown and if he calls himself a "professional" he did not act like it on his FB page. JB > DT any day of the week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast:

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/

Just read it and you did spectacular work on it my friend. Even better work in breaking it down so even the regular non-weather observer can understand it. That said, having you excited about this winter is very encouraging and look forward to your in-depth analysis of the weather this winter again

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just read it and you did spectacular work on it my friend. Even better work in breaking it down so even the regular non-weather observer can understand it. That said, having you excited about this winter is very encouraging and look forward to your in-depth analysis of the weather this winter again

I hae to second that opinion with passion, throughly enjoyed the read not simply because it is snowy but, above all, because it was highly instructive. well done.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason.

 

The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.

 

post-128-0-08981600-1415241089_thumb.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast:

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/

Excellent work as usual and hope it verifies. I just have one question regarding the QBO chart DT detailed regarding rising -QBO into December. I'm not so sure those years featured SON averages below -20 heading into December? I could be wrong. I did find four years that did match an average -20 or lower with a December value around -10. Below is a list of SON falls with QBO lower than -20 that rose in December with QBO of around -10. At least for NYC, these years featured slightly AN snowfall but we're pretty warm except 2003-2004.

Year _QBO _Oct SCE _DJF Temp____Snowfall __Dec QBO

1984: -20.07 _9.47 __+1.2 Nina _____24.1" _____-8.16

1996: -22.50 _10.03 _+2.6 Neutral - __10.0" _____-9.86

2003: -20.24 _10.43 _-2.8 Neutral + __42.6" _____-11.38

2012: -23.35 _11.36 _+1.6 Neutral - __26.1" _____-10.02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason.

The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.

attachicon.gifmqiphasespace.png

There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

JB once again hitting home the 76-77 analog for atleast november. His premium page excerpt this morning showed a stark comparison in similarities. Whether or not this theme continues through the entire winter is yet to be seen but for right now the coldest winter analogs look pretty good. IMO most important part for the winter to even resemble 76-77 is IF this pattern can lock in for its entirety. Looks great into december but we have to look at relaxation and then how the pattern reloads as we head deeper into december

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing beat a Kocin appearance , it meant game on .

True that paul, everytime you saw him come on you knew we were in for some type of snowstorm. Sadly like yanks said 2001 he caught some flak but so did most people as that storm was further north than forecast. Even today you'll be hard pressed to find someone who is as accurate with east coast cyclogenesis as him, the father of NESIS, Paul Kocin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share.

 

1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips.

 

2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed.

 

3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the 1976-77 analog but that year started setting all time monthly record lows the end of August and the cold continued on and off (mostly on) into February...no year is exactly a like...1976-77 enso might be close but real time temperatures aren't yet...maybe January will see record cold like 2004...I'd look at 2003-04 as a better analog if you're looking for cold...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips.

 

2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed.

 

3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.

 

Thank you, it makes sense given the easterly shift started around June, we'll see.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Saddly his on air performances that stand out the most in my memory are the ones that preceded and occured during the March 2001 debacle.

He held on to the bitter end, but by the morning of 3/6 you could tell it was over NYC S and W

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×