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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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Surprised with the relative favorability of the coming winter.

With the Nino as strong as it is and getting stronger along with eastward shifting forcing, it should completely overwhelm the pattern.

This means cold would be an afterthought with a general warm/wet pattern throughout the season

It is a basin wide event but this year you want to live in upstate pa or in NY state if you like snow!

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Surprised with the relative favorability of the coming winter.

With the Nino as strong as it is and getting stronger along with eastward shifting forcing, it should completely overwhelm the pattern.

This means cold would be an afterthought with a general warm/wet pattern throughout the season.

 

I am not surprised at your shock , since non of what you wrote is relevant . 

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I am not surprised at your shock , since non of what you wrote is relevant .

I'm just saying several mets are pretty gung-ho about this winter when they shouldn't be.

They're also putting all their eggs in one basket and hope late Jan/Feb bails them out again.

But is a cold, snowy Feb really a lock in a super Nino?

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I'm just saying several mets are pretty gung-ho about this winter when they shouldn't be.

They're also putting all their eggs in one basket and hope late Jan/Feb bails them out again.

But is a cold, snowy Feb really a lock in a super Nino?

It's not a lock. But it's possible that the second half of the winter evolves into something favorable.

Nov and Dec are likely warm , then as the NINO declines and the forcing retrogrades back towards 160 you could see a more favorable pattern at 500 in J and F .

Not all NINO s are alike. Seeing super status alone is not a death sentence.

The sample size is small and the signals around this event are hinting that this is not 97.

So don't be too quick to yell torch. We overcame all the east based talk from very early on in this event . Be careful of listening to the same voices that took you on a trip east only to find the action was to your west and you ending up missing another party.

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It's not a lock. But it's possible that the second half of the winter evolves into something favorable.

Nov and Dec are likely warm , then as the NINO declines and the forcing retrogrades back towards 160 you could see a more favorable pattern at 500 in J and F .

Not all NINO s are alike. Seeing super status alone is not a death sentence.

The sample size is small and the signals around this event are hinting that this is not 97.

So don't be too quick to yell torch. We overcame all the east based talk from very early on in this event . Be careful of listening to the same voices that took you on a trip east only to find the action was to your west and you ending up missing another party.

 

The frustrating part about 97-98 was that we had the cool weather in November and December but no storms. We could have at least had a front loaded winter before it turned warm and rainy. So the worry would be we turn colder second half but not necessarily stormy. But cold and dry has been pretty rare except for March 2014

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I'm just saying several mets are pretty gung-ho about this winter when they shouldn't be.

They're also putting all their eggs in one basket and hope late Jan/Feb bails them out again.

But is a cold, snowy Feb really a lock in a super Nino?

That's because this is not a Super El Nino or any nonsense like that.  It's a strong central based El Nino that's about to steadily weaken with a positive PDO.  Comparisons to other strong El Nino events like 97/98 simply just is not valid.  Different set up in the Pacific, Atlantic, and in Siberia.

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That's because this is not a Super El Nino or any nonsense like that.  It's a strong central based El Nino that's about to steadily weaken with a positive PDO.  Comparisons to other strong El Nino events like 97/98 simply just is not valid.  Different set up in the Pacific, Atlantic, and in Siberia.

 

Steve..you should post more!

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That's because this is not a Super El Nino or any nonsense like that. It's a strong central based El Nino that's about to steadily weaken with a positive PDO. Comparisons to other strong El Nino events like 97/98 simply just is not valid. Different set up in the Pacific, Atlantic, and in Siberia.

Region 3.4 just hit +2.7C and it's still warming. You don't think this qualifies as a super event? 3.4 is the region every El Niño's strength in history has been measured by, not the other regions. I'm not understanding here
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so far the trend for the ao nao is up...Hopefully it will trend back down in the coming months...

 

With respect to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), today's preliminary figure was +3.366. That's the second highest figure on record for November 2. The record is +4.544, which was established in 1978. That figure remains the November record.

 

During the 11/1-10 period, only four prior years saw the AO reach or exceed +3.000: 1973, 1975, 1978, and 2013. Winter 1978-79 turned out to be quite blocky. In contrast, 1975-76 saw much less blocking. I don't think we'll have a good idea until we get closer to December, especially as the last two winters argue that the Snow Advance Index (SAI) has a weaker relationship to the AO than had previously seemed to be the case.

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Region 3.4 just hit +2.7C and it's still warming. You don't think this qualifies as a super event? 3.4 is the region every El Niño's strength in history has been measured by, not the other regions. I'm not understanding here

That's what I was thinking. How can this not be a super Nino if we only have 97-98 to compare it to at this point, and the anomalies are still going up.

I'm also only referring to the Nino regions in particular and not what's going on outside of them. I'm sure things are different than 97-98 but the critical 3.4 zone is right in its ballpark.

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That's what I was thinking. How can this not be a super Nino if we only have 97-98 to compare it to at this point, and the anomalies are still going up.

I'm also only referring to the Nino regions in particular and not what's going on outside of them. I'm sure things are different than 97-98 but the critical 3.4 zone is right in its ballpark.

We are now ahead of where 1997 was at this time. The 97 Nino peaked at +2.8C the last week of November. We are already at +2.7C with more warming to come. Very, very likely now that we beat the 1997-1998 super El Niño trimonthly peak. This Nino is looking to peak in December and it would not surprise me at all to see a +3.0C as a weekly number given what is occurring and what is forecast
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Let me explain why this is not a Super El Nino.  

 

Look, I get that you see this Kelvin Wave induced spike and say this HAS to be a Super El Nino, but you miss one key point, duration.  I use the ONI, that chart you see with each ENSO report from the CPC, to measure El Nino and La Nina events.  The reason being is that it irons out these short terms spikes and crashes to give you a clear picture of how an ENSO event, warm or cold, influences the atmosphere.  This process has been used for over 40 years and I see no reason why I should stop.  

 

The current ONI, which will be updated next week for October, is at 1.5.  The El Nino from 1997/98 was at 2.3 for not just one month but for 3 months, which would have a significant impact on the 500 MB weather pattern over North America, no doubt.  That El Nino also featured a -PDO period and below normal SSTA conditions over the western Atlantic.  This year, complete opposite.  So as you can see, the two years are not comparable at all.

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Let me explain why this is not a Super El Nino.

Look, I get that you see this Kelvin Wave induced spike and say this HAS to be a Super El Nino, but you miss one key point, duration. I use the ONI, that chart you see with each ENSO report from the CPC, to measure El Nino and La Nina events. The reason being is that it irons out these short terms spikes and crashes to give you a clear picture of how an ENSO event, warm or cold, influences the atmosphere. This process has been used for over 40 years and I see no reason why I should stop.

The current ONI, which will be updated next week for October, is at 1.5. The El Nino from 1997/98 was at 2.3 for not just one month but for 3 months, which would have a significant impact on the 500 MB weather pattern over North America, no doubt. That El Nino also featured a -PDO period and below normal SSTA conditions over the western Atlantic. This year, complete opposite. So as you can see, the two years are not comparable at all.

1997 was +PDO, the PDO didn't go negative until the spring of 98. Region 3.4 is now pushing +2.8C, that is pretty substantial I'd say
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Heres an idea. One of you link to actual data.

I'm going to work can't post links right now. Everything I said is true, fact. The PDO was positive in 97, it didn't go negative until spring 98 and Nino region 3.4 is now over +2.7C. I'm not making this up. I don't know what Steve is talking about. To say it will not have an effect on the 500mb longwave pattern with a Nino this strong is just crazy and defies logic, nature and physics
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