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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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Guest Pamela

I feel bad for the poor souls that have to pay for said bad advice... :(

 

With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

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Guest Pamela

In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself.  So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks.  But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

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With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

This...I plow snow and this forum is sooo far ahead of the curve  (PB GFI) :)

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In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself. So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks. But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

Exactly !! Most of us here can, at the very least, view a few model runs and gauge the intensity of the system. This allows us to have a better idea of what to expect than what was seen on an earlier local forecast. When the TV mets say "we have some new info coming in, and amounts might have to be adjusted", we know what that new info is and where it is coming from. The forecasts that are notable are the ones that come from respected mets and are not simply in support of model data. If a 1-3 inch snowfall forecast was made at 7am and was followed by almost all of the 12z model runs shifting the storm track and now giving us 6-12 inches of snow, we pretty much all know that any reputable news source will update and televise the new forecast to reflect the changes in their next update (and will probably be fairly conservative and forecast "4-8 inches now but could go even higher if this new info is right"). I will always look forward to reading a forecast by a met/pro forecaster that I have respect for, yet the snow maps that change with each model run are really for those new to the hobby (though it can be entertaining watching people get bothered by the fact that they are 20 miles away from the 6" line on a map, yet the new GFS shows them getting 10")
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In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself.  So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks.  But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

I don't about lol-worthy. Part of why I do it is to keep track of accuracy -- or that lack of it.

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With all the available information on the internet regarding weather....anyone who actually enters into a contractual agreement and agrees to pay a fee to receive a weather report...all I can say is it is very strange. 

 

Moderator, feel free to delete...

I completely agree... considered buying his service, then realized I can get same info everywhere else for free

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We are taking a 10 day break . -EPO +PNA re fires around the 20th . Would love to see a - NAO  form and maybe pull something off in the last 10 days .

 

But is was a very good winter . If this the end , it ended with a bang in some areas

Doubt we're seeing an -NAO-that's been modeled a bunch of times this year only to bust hard.   It's likely over for most here.  Heck of a run 1/24 on after a forgettable 1st half.

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lol - he crushed this winter . He smoked  DT .  HE CRUSHED THE WINTER .. It is not debatable .

He crushed the 2nd half of winter.   His first half was terrible.   Overall, his forecast will verify nicely because of a historic comeback.  Most years, he would have gone down in flames with most sites sitting at 5 inches YTD that late.  

=

DT on the other hand was awful from front to end.  He can say winter's over, but he's been so bad, I don't know if he's got any credibility left.

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In all candor, I have to say it has been years since I've given even the slightest consideration to what *any* media outlet was predicting with regards to a snow event...I have eyes & model access & access to all needed synoptic charts & radar and I can evaluate the situation and attendant conditions and decide for myself.  So I always laugh just a bit when anyone writes "So & so says NYC will get a foot'...as if that person somehow has the insight that the rest of the universe lacks.  But I can understand that approach for someone new to the hobby; but for the long time observer and weather fan...its lol worthy.

I don't have a meteorology degree, "but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night."

 

As much as we know as amateurs or think we know, the person with the degree will always have the advantage. 

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Verizon Fios did not renew their contract with TWC so instead we have Accuweather, which I didn't know had a TV channel.  Only had a few minutes to check it out before leaving for work but Mark Mancuso, late of TWC, was on.  Seemed like the old days of TWC, no personlity, just radar, futurecasts, etc, with side and bottom bars running current and forecasted conditions for a rotation of cities.

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Verizon Fios did not renew their contract with TWC so instead we have Accuweather, which I didn't know had a TV channel.  Only had a few minutes to check it out before leaving for work but Mark Mancuso, late of TWC, was on.  Seemed like the old days of TWC, no personlity, just radar, futurecasts, etc, with side and bottom bars running current and forecasted conditions for a rotation of cities.

It was talked about a while ago that accuwx was going to launch a tv channel but haven't heard anything since, so I guess they did? Lets see if they pour enough resources into it to make it decent...they cant even keep their website up to date with old stories and info especially on weekends.

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It was talked about a while ago that accuwx was going to launch a tv channel but haven't heard anything since, so I guess they did? Lets see if they pour enough resources into it to make it decent...they cant even keep their website up to date with old stories and info especially on weekends.

 a few years ago on over the air tv either 7.2 or 7.3 channel in nyc accuweather did have a channel but it was dropped..

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Guest Pamela

I don't have a meteorology degree, "but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night."

 

As much as we know as amateurs or think we know, the person with the degree will always have the advantage. 

 

I mean there is no doubt a person with a degree in atmospheric science can do differential equations better than  me (my bete noire)...but doing them is still not going to give them insight into other things that are elements in making a good forecast. 

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Of all the inane stuff DT has said in order to bash other mets, this -- imho -- wins first prize.  From his 3 week forecast:

 

Part of the problem when you engage in hype, whether it is in weather or sports or politics or economics, is that you end up painting yourself into a corner because of the expectation of an unusual or exceptional event happening. We can see this most clearly with the ridiculous assertions that this mild period we have been seeing over the past several days is a “ FALSE SPRING “ and that winter is going to make a dramatic comeback over the eastern third of the country during the last week of March / last week of April. The meteorologists who are attempting to convince you that this is a valid argument are hoping that you are unable to realize two important points. First, that the SPRING season from a climatology perspective is MARCH, APRIL and MAY. Having a cold interval in March, April or May does not mean that it is still Winter-- it just means that it is a cold spring. Second, from an astronomical perspective, the SPRING season begins when the tilt of the Earth's axis shifts from its winter position to the SPRING position and the Sun crosses the equator. That is going to happen no matter what the weather pattern actually shows on March 20, or March 25, or April 3. To suggest that the upcoming cold pattern in the last week of March /first week of April is a return of winter is to imply that this cold last week of March will stop the Earth's axis from shifting. It is absurd and pure hype.

 

Is he really suggesting that all the pros and serious hobbyists who have been identifying the upcoming jaunt into a colder (possibly snowier) pattern were suggesting that the Earth was undergoing an unprecented cosmic shift?   DT is a smart guy -- and a very competent met -- but when he talks about his "competition" this way, he sounds like an hysterical 6 year old and I can't imagine how this kind of thing doesn't hurt his business.  What media outlet not broadcasting from inside padded walls would hire this guy?

He's lashing out and desperate to get SOMETHING right this year.   He's had an F- year from start to finish so far.

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He's always either bashing someone (JB is usually his fave) or bragging about how he first spotted "the trend".  For a competent pro he rarely acts anything like a pro.

and his individual storm calls have been anything but decent this year.  He always seem to be trying to find a way for the Northeast to not get decent snows.   He had us in a 1-3 inch swath for several storm which dumped triple that around here.

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See when I forecast I use the STD model (I used it for Steven D).  See what he says and go opposite.  Seems to work real well this winter. 

 

 

 

Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather  ·  5h 5 hours ago

If you only have one model with an extreme solution in an atmospherically unfavorable environment, is advertising that solution responsible?

 

 

Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather  ·  Mar 14

@pete807: @nynjpaweather Yes, I see. Below normal temps but not winter like.” Bingo! Put away the snow shovel.

 

 

Steven DiMartino @nynjpaweather  ·  Mar 13

Yet another GFS model run that continues to back off on the cold. Not one day featuring highs in the 30's through Day 7 for any location.

 

 

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