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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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I wouldn't make that forecast at this point, but the idea is on the table. High winds cold temps and blowing snow aren't a far fetched idea.

Actually, that's exactly right. JB was talking about high winds and frigid temps, combined with powder snow which could cause blizzard like conditions. Doesn't take much snow to qualify for a blizzard and between the arctic boundary, the trough, and new coastal, there are a number of ways in which NY metro should get some decent snows. Add the wind and frigid temps and this is all quite plausible.

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Actually, that's exactly right. JB was talking about high winds and frigid temps, combined with powder snow which could cause blizzard like conditions. Doesn't take much snow to qualify for a blizzard and between the arctic boundary, the trough, and new coastal, there are a number of ways in which NY metro should get some decent snows. Add the wind and frigid temps and this is all quite plausible.

at this juncture in the ball game with the model divided we could easily lined up with 8 to 12 inches blizzard and single digits or teens and a couple of inches
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Bill Evans who is normally bullish just said 1-2 inches for the weekend

why do people take these guys serious? You have the models in hand and you can come up with your own forecast? No model shows 1-2! Even the conservative GFS shows 2-4... And with that cold air there will be sticking every flake so ratios will be at least 12:1
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He also said 36 inches could fall in NYC the NIGHT BEFORE the southern NE blizzard back in January.

He honestly is horrible he rattles off some cloud types then proceeds to show future cast maps that never match his actual forecast. If it doesn't match you're forecast why show it. He does it everyday no matter how big the discrepancy . The one he just showed had less then inch for most of the area for the weekend storm.

I like channel 7 news best of local stations for actual news and lee and Jeff. Bill and Amy are tv personalities.

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I'm actually concerned that TWC might be right; the temps the past two days have been warmer than forecasted.

TWC gets too much slack in my opinion, they have done a really nice job this winter, especially during the blizzard fiasco.

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Bill Evans at 1220 said 1 inch at the park out of this .

1" seems low to me. I'm thinking 2" in Central Park given the developing system's dynamics, forecast track (considering the spread among the guidance), and qpf over the past two model cycles. A 1"-3" range probably isn't unreasonable for the City, though I think a 2"4" one might be a little better, as I suspect amounts in the 2"-3" range will be more common in the City than 1"-2" amounts. Furthermore, as a 1" figure would probably depend on low ratios (perhaps on the order of 8:1) and/or a reduction in qpf from what is forecast on most of the guidance, I suspect that there's probably a little more upside potential than downside potential e.g., if the storm develops a little more quickly than forecast.

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