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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason.

 

The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.

 

post-128-0-08981600-1415241089_thumb.png

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For those who haven't seen it yet. Here is our winter forecast:

 

http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/

Excellent work as usual and hope it verifies. I just have one question regarding the QBO chart DT detailed regarding rising -QBO into December. I'm not so sure those years featured SON averages below -20 heading into December? I could be wrong. I did find four years that did match an average -20 or lower with a December value around -10. Below is a list of SON falls with QBO lower than -20 that rose in December with QBO of around -10. At least for NYC, these years featured slightly AN snowfall but we're pretty warm except 2003-2004.

Year _QBO _Oct SCE _DJF Temp____Snowfall __Dec QBO

1984: -20.07 _9.47 __+1.2 Nina _____24.1" _____-8.16

1996: -22.50 _10.03 _+2.6 Neutral - __10.0" _____-9.86

2003: -20.24 _10.43 _-2.8 Neutral + __42.6" _____-11.38

2012: -23.35 _11.36 _+1.6 Neutral - __26.1" _____-10.02

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I disagree with the premise that the QBO easterlies will weaken substantially by December and through the winter. This seems to have become a popular idea in the last week for some reason.

The MQI phase space demonstrates how the easterlies are still descending, and the core of the anomalies will reach 30mb in January and February.

attachicon.gifmqiphasespace.png

There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share.
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JB once again hitting home the 76-77 analog for atleast november. His premium page excerpt this morning showed a stark comparison in similarities. Whether or not this theme continues through the entire winter is yet to be seen but for right now the coldest winter analogs look pretty good. IMO most important part for the winter to even resemble 76-77 is IF this pattern can lock in for its entirety. Looks great into december but we have to look at relaxation and then how the pattern reloads as we head deeper into december

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Nothing beat a Kocin appearance , it meant game on .

True that paul, everytime you saw him come on you knew we were in for some type of snowstorm. Sadly like yanks said 2001 he caught some flak but so did most people as that storm was further north than forecast. Even today you'll be hard pressed to find someone who is as accurate with east coast cyclogenesis as him, the father of NESIS, Paul Kocin

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There were a few discussions on the main page, the snow cover thread discussing what appears to be a sudden drop in dark green anomalies going into Nov on this zonal wind anomaly graph. If you have any thoughts; please do share.

 

1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips.

 

2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed.

 

3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.

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I like the 1976-77 analog but that year started setting all time monthly record lows the end of August and the cold continued on and off (mostly on) into February...no year is exactly a like...1976-77 enso might be close but real time temperatures aren't yet...maybe January will see record cold like 2004...I'd look at 2003-04 as a better analog if you're looking for cold...

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1) Some people seemed to have based this assumption on the 1-dimensional QBO index "slowing down" last month. 1D extrapolation of the QBO index is primitive considering the data that we have at our fingertips.

 

2) Basing an assessment of the QBO, a 25-29 month oscillation, on weekly variations of local anomalies is extremely flawed.

 

3) The core of the easterlies were at 20mb this past month. There's still easterly shear at 30mb. Therefore the QBO "index" would be expected to continue to fall or at least remain nearly steady for the next few months.

 

Thank you, it makes sense given the easterly shift started around June, we'll see.

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I knew it was over the night before when the 12"+ graphic got pushed up into Orange County.

and TWC slowly moving it north and east.  Looking back, it's amazing that climo was never factored in (That these storms always tend to develop a bit later and further north and east that modeled-especially at that time in history.  Look no further than 12/30/00 which screwed Balt and DC at the 11th hour)

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and TWC slowly moving it north and east. Looking back, it's amazing that climo was never factored in (That these storms always tend to develop a bit later and further north and east that modeled-especially at that time in history. Look no further than 12/30/00 which screwed Balt and DC at the 11th hour)

I was in Baltimore for 12/30/00 and we had less then an inch and it was torture. I went home to li a few days later and was a whole other world!
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http://beforeitsnews.com/weather/2014/11/we-are-in-the-bullseye-expert-warns-by-midweek-all-hells-going-to-break-loose-2443800.html

"Michio Kaku joins CBS This Morning to warn 250 million Americans that “we are in the bullseye” and by midweek, “all hell’s going to break loose” as America prepares to be pummeled by something sounding almost Biblical, ‘BomboGenesis’. Kaku warns that air, train and vehicle traffic could be paralyzed next week, and schedules disrupted"

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