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Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here.

 

Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think?

I think March (at least the first half) is trending colder than normal.  Not looking like an early spring like last year.  Winter chill is going to hang on for a while longer.  Beyond that, not sure where we go.

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Anyone have any ideas on Spring 2013 for the region? Are we looking at an early Spring? Post your thoughts here.

 

Personally, I'm rooting for a mild, dry Spring. But what does everyone else think?

 

I noticed you put severe wx tags on this thread - all severe talk should go in the already existing 2013 severe season thread :) - other talk I guess now belongs here!

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  • 2 weeks later...

Happy first day of Met Spring! I don't know if such things exist, but similar to fall foliage maps, are there any "spring foliage," or "first springing" maps anywhere? Can someone post one, if so? I'm wondering, on average, when there first leafing out of trees occurs here in southern VA.

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I've seen scientific papers discussing "green up".  You can see it on MODIS imagery quite nicely as this link demonstrates.

 

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8047

 

Very cool. So, for example, my town has a renaissance faire every April. By the middle of April last year, everything was nice and leafed out. Last April was very warm though. But in a normal April, vegetation would only just be getting going by that point?

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Last year was very early.  The study of earlier greening up is ongoing as relates to climate change.  I recall seeing one picture from the mid 1800s in the Boston area...it was early-May and the trees weren't even budding.  That was apparently typical.  They bud and leaf out several weeks earlier now.  Thoreau's journal from Walden Pond is still used as the best reference for budding/leafing/flowering in the mid 1800s in the northeast.  

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i think it's fairly regular over the short term tho temps are more important than fall with leaf change where that's largely just light. down here you can't battle climo too well past the beginning of march though. 

 

from year to year i see things bud almost the exact same time.. last yr was early.

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  • 2 weeks later...

According to what?  GFS and GEFS look cold out to 384hrs and the CFSv2 is apparently quite cold through Week 4.  Not sure about the Euro weeklies.  

Weeklies were cold/coolish with a trough in the east through the second week of April.  Week 3 was showing some signs of more zonal flow.

 

Brett Anderson from AccuWx elaborates here:

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/any-signs-of-spring-1/8644661

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According to what?  GFS and GEFS look cold out to 384hrs and the CFSv2 is apparently quite cold through Week 4.  Not sure about the Euro weeklies.  

AccuNever uses the GFS to create their weekly and extended forecasts, if I recall correctly. It's been showing 60's and then eventually 70's returning by April for a while now. But like I said...people don't joke about it being "accunever" for no reason.

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