MAG5035 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 New thread, here's CTP's current take on the events of the upcoming week : .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE FOR FAIRAND SEASONABLE MONDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING TO THE 30S. ALL MDLDATA TRACKING NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM NORTH OF PA ON TUESDAY. APERIOD OF PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THE ASSOCIATED LL JET AS IT SWEEPSTHRU CENTRAL PA. LATEST MDL RUNS NOW INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARYLOW ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PASS SOUTH OF PA ANDMDL SOUNDINGS HAVE ACCORDINGLY TRENDED TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTIONWITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW INCHES OF SNOW...ESP ACROSS THE NWMTNS.GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FRONTAL TIMING GIVES AFAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING MY EASTERNZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A PRETTY TYPICAL POST COLDFRONTAL NW FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. WESTERN ANDNORTHERN AREAS WOULD THEN BECOME FAVORED FOR SNOW SHOWERACTIVITY...WITH CHANCES WANING AS ONE MOVES AWAY FROM WESTERN HIGHTERRAIN.THE CHILLY NW FLOW WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A BRIEFIMPROVEMENT SETS IN FOR THURSDAY...JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTALSYSTEM SLATED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL IT WILL BE A COLDERTHAN NORMAL WEEK WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERSIN THE CLIMATALOGICALLY FAVORED AREAS.BULK OF MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVEFOR LATE WEEK WILL OPEN UP/SHEAR OUT AS IT LIFTS INTO THE GRT LKS. TOOEARLY TO HASH OUT THE FCST DETAILS FOR THE LOCAL AREA...BUT A LIGHTWINTRY MIX APPEARS MOST LIKELY ARND NEXT FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can't wait for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Maybe the LSV will get a ton of severe thunderstorms to make up for it. Probably not, probably like last spring but you can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Cannot wait for t storm season...hopefully its a solid one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Maybe the LSV will get a ton of severe thunderstorms to make up for it. Probably not, probably like last spring but you can hope. we had a decent severe season last spring. the cells from the mid atlantic tornado outbreak passed directly overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 we had a decent severe season last spring. the cells from the mid atlantic tornado outbreak passed directly overhead. I was going to comment on that last night...us Lancaster folks do a lot better with storms than we do with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 00z Euro puts out several inches of accumulating snow in Central PA Saturday night into Sunday. Completely different look than the 12z run from yesterday. The new Canadian (the new, upgraded version) goes with a quick thump of snow Friday into Saturday. Here's a link to the new Canadian: http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?run=12&map=na&mod=gemglb〈=en ...goes out to 240 hours now and has upgraded physics/data ingestion. Has done pretty well with the coastal system forming now, so we'll see how it holds up the rest of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Holy fluff.. .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FIRST PERIOD FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. COOP REPORT FROM LAUREL SUMMIT /2730FT ELEVATION/ HAD 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW WITH 0.09 WTR EQUIVALENT...MAKING FOR A 40-45:1 SLR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Man...hate this type of day it looks beautiful then you step outside and freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Man...hate this type of day it looks beautiful then you step outside and freeze. We had a decent snow shower move through earlier with hardly a cloud in the sky. Was pretty amazing. Sky diamonds and ****. I guess it fell apart before reaching here but snow was still in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Good snow on traffic cams west of Altoona and Johnstown. Reminds me of spring snow showers on radar, very cellular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 We had a decent snow shower move through earlier with hardly a cloud in the sky. Was pretty amazing. Sky diamonds and ****. I guess it fell apart before reaching here but snow was still in the air. What snowfall total do you have for the season to date? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What snowfall total do you have for the season to date? I didn't add them up this year but I imagine a bit above UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Light snow showers at LNS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I didn't add them up this year but I imagine a bit above UNV.[/quote Altoona coop site has reported 33.3" so far . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How are we not in a wind advisory? It is insanely windy, river has whitecaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Anything exciting in the works? I know we have rain and snow showers on tap for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Definitely a wintery day...wind, cold, and frequent flurries. Sitting at a blustery 26 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I didn't add them up this year but I imagine a bit above UNV.[/quote Altoona coop site has reported 33.3" so far . I'm 12 miles from UNV and 12 miles from Philipsburg - what's Philipsburg's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm 12 miles from UNV and 12 miles from Philipsburg - what's Philipsburg's? philipsburg ytd is 34.5" (1720ft) state college ytd is 31.5" (1170ft) tyrone ytd is 24.6" (890ft) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Off-topic, but: THON raises a record $12,374,034.46 for the Four Diamonds Fund! FTK! And has anyone checked Twitter lately? -points to the bottom- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 philipsburg ytd is 34.5" (1720ft) state college ytd is 31.5" (1170ft) tyrone ytd is 24.6" (890ft) I went through the recent C-PA threads last night and finally added the rest of my snow totals from mid Jan (20.8" as of Jan 16th) to now and came up with 36.1" here which is at about 1200ft elevation. Me and Jamie usually end up with pretty similar results because we have about the same proximity being right at the foot of the Allegheny Front. I'm surprised my total actually surpasses Philipsburg's but I was aided greatly by the V-day death band dumping 5 inches. I saw the coop observer up there only reported 1.6" for that event.. they must've just missed out on the band. And wow, Philipsburg only has 3 more inches than State College, which could possibly be a testament to lack of a normal LES regime this year. Today I think might be the first day this winter I've seen a more classically oriented NW flow and the Laurels are accumulating snow like they should in those situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 Anything exciting in the works? I know we have rain and snow showers on tap for Tuesday. Monday night/Tuesday's event is likely going to translate into a minor advisory event for at least the western and north central counties as temps aloft look to warm marginally enough to introduce a mix threat while surface temps should be at or below freezing at the onset. Probably a 1-3 of snow and/or less than 0.1" of freezing rain type deal. SREFs have been pegging the north central counties with high snow probs of 1+ and most models have generally kept that region mostly snow, so I can see the more mountainous parts of Lycoming and Clinton Counties as well as the NY border northern tier counties getting a couple inches of snow. Locations like AOO, UNV, and IPT I think see an inch or less with the trace of ice. I won't rule out mixing issues further southeast either, but later onset further east might make for a more liquid result if onset doesn't occur til later in the morning. If the precip comes in early, then we could be talking the same kind of wintry issues as the AOO/UNV/IPT corridor and a potential advisory. This event is not really a big one QPF wise and will likely roll through pretty quickly with the frontal passage resuming the colder regime for most of the rest of the week. The next system, which as I said a few days ago is shaping up to be a pretty widespread winter storm for the US looks to make whatever impacts to PA around Friday/Sat. Models have generally agreed on a much more sheared out type system as of late (somewhat similar to V-day) as it gets to the eastern US, making for only light precip in PA. The primary low attempts to cut into the Great Lakes, but will be met by blocking in Canada. There will likely be a forced secondary on the coast. That storms still in the D5-6 range, thus certainty on details continues to be sketchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I went through the recent C-PA threads last night and finally added the rest of my snow totals from mid Jan (20.8" as of Jan 16th) to now and came up with 36.1" here which is at about 1200ft elevation. Me and Jamie usually end up with pretty similar results because we have about the same proximity being right at the foot of the Allegheny Front. I'm surprised my total actually surpasses Philipsburg's but I was aided greatly by the V-day death band dumping 5 inches. I saw the coop observer up there only reported 1.6" for that event.. they must've just missed out on the band. And wow, Philipsburg only has 3 more inches than State College, which could possibly be a testament to lack of a normal LES regime this year. Today I think might be the first day this winter I've seen a more classically oriented NW flow and the Laurels are accumulating snow like they should in those situations. you have me by a few inches as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Off-topic, but: THON raises a record $12,374,034.46 for the Four Diamonds Fund! FTK! And has anyone checked Twitter lately? -points to the bottom- That's great! I've been to a few of them when someone I know is participating. Very, very cool event. philipsburg ytd is 34.5" (1720ft) state college ytd is 31.5" (1170ft) tyrone ytd is 24.6" (890ft) Thanks! I went through the recent C-PA threads last night and finally added the rest of my snow totals from mid Jan (20.8" as of Jan 16th) to now and came up with 36.1" here which is at about 1200ft elevation. Me and Jamie usually end up with pretty similar results because we have about the same proximity being right at the foot of the Allegheny Front. I'm surprised my total actually surpasses Philipsburg's but I was aided greatly by the V-day death band dumping 5 inches. I saw the coop observer up there only reported 1.6" for that event.. they must've just missed out on the band. And wow, Philipsburg only has 3 more inches than State College, which could possibly be a testament to lack of a normal LES regime this year. Today I think might be the first day this winter I've seen a more classically oriented NW flow and the Laurels are accumulating snow like they should in those situations. Totally agree. Even last year they had decent lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 you have me by a few inches as well looked around Clearfield County and found Grampian with 41.2" ytd at 1510ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 looked around Clearfield County and found Grampian with 41.2" ytd at 1510ft. i dont even have 30" here for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 dang had a lot of hope in late week, but weather doesnt listen to forum weenies like wmsptwx hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 i dont even have 30" here for the year. Yeah I saw you were at 28.5. I'm not familiar with your area but I found that interesting. Both Clearfield and Treasure Lake sites were not updated to post their totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I have 25.5 according to this chart....Last year I had 12.3 - so I have doubled my snow amount from last year. http://nowdata.rcc-acis.org/CTP/pubACIS_results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.