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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Most of the chatter is of course in the pinned 'threat' thread.

 

But yeah, could be an interesting one and I wouldn't be surprised to see results similar to what we just had--maybe more.

 

At 72.3" for the season now and might break 80" with this next shot.  We ususally do pretty well at my locale with this kind of set-up, getting nice lift with a southeasterly fetch.

Honestly, you may do decently, but the upper CT river valley is fooked. SWFE's will redeveloping SLP's over SNE are never good with that SE flow aloft and at the surface. When it's all said and done, I could see you guys in western Orange County above 1,200ft getting 5-9" while St. J gets 1-3" of slop.

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Boy no one seems to be talking much about the next storm but I think it will be the biggest of the season for me with big impacts with tree damage.  Long term, wet snow, tons of QPF.  Elevation will be key.

Yup, should be very good for you. Maybe 12-14" of wet snow? I'm hoping to pull a 6" or 8" spot here.

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Most of the chatter is of course in the pinned 'threat' thread.

 

But yeah, could be an interesting one and I wouldn't be surprised to see results similar to what we just had--maybe more.

 

At 72.3" for the season now and might break 80" with this next shot.  We ususally do pretty well at my locale with this kind of set-up, getting nice lift with a southeasterly fetch.

 

You should do the best of any of us VT posters in this set up... the SE flow is a no-brainer in the Orange Heights ;)

 

Up here I'm thinking 4-8/5-10 type deal on Mansfield, but down here in town maybe 3-6"?  Further east you go up this north, the lower totals will get.  Going to be some severe NEK shadowing.

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Yup, should be very good for you. Maybe 12-14" of wet snow? I'm hoping to pull a 6" or 8" spot here.

If you have a car you should come on by.  Im 20 minutes to downtown PLY.  The end of my road is at 1500 feet.  It is amazing to go from 500 feet at Newfound Lake and drive 1.5 miles up my road and see the difference.  In these spring type setups its elevation, elevation, elevation. You will even see a  difference in PLY between the Pemi River and Speare Hospital on Highland St.   Off course with this storm after the initial thump on Wed we could have hours of 33-34F non accumulating stuff with the high sun angle.  Anyhow I just have a feeling that this will be a over performer in our area while areas NW get downsloped with the SE flow.  Looking forward to an interesting event.   Just for a tease to show you that the Plymouth NH area can get some good snow here are pics of my house on Feb 29 2008.   

post-268-0-86512200-1361834401_thumb.jpg

post-268-0-77298000-1361834420_thumb.jpg

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If you have a car you should come on by.  Im 20 minutes to downtown PLY.  The end of my road is at 1500 feet.  It is amazing to go from 500 feet at Newfound Lake and drive 1.5 miles up my road and see the difference.  In these spring type setups its elevation, elevation, elevation. You will even see a  difference in PLY between the Pemi River and Speare Hospital on Highland St.   Off course with this storm after the initial thump on Wed we could have hours of 33-34F non accumulating stuff with the high sun angle.  Anyhow I just have a feeling that this will be a over performer in our area while areas NW get downsloped with the SE flow.  Looking forward to an interesting event.   Just for a tease to show you that the Plymouth NH area can get some good snow here are pics of my house on Feb 29 2008.   

you've got a little snow there to move, eh?

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If you have a car you should come on by.  Im 20 minutes to downtown PLY.  The end of my road is at 1500 feet.  It is amazing to go from 500 feet at Newfound Lake and drive 1.5 miles up my road and see the difference.  In these spring type setups its elevation, elevation, elevation. You will even see a  difference in PLY between the Pemi River and Speare Hospital on Highland St.   Off course with this storm after the initial thump on Wed we could have hours of 33-34F non accumulating stuff with the high sun angle.  Anyhow I just have a feeling that this will be a over performer in our area while areas NW get downsloped with the SE flow.  Looking forward to an interesting event.   Just for a tease to show you that the Plymouth NH area can get some good snow here are pics of my house on Feb 29 2008.   

Awesome pics! Not only is Plymouth a local screw zone..but Plymouth state is a local screw zone of Plymouth lol. The rest of town holds snow much better and accumulates better. Anyway, thanks for the offer, I would love to but I don't have my car up right now...but I'll probably have it up after spring break. I definitely would love to get up there at some point for sure.

I'm slammed with work right now so I hope I can get Wednesday off...but unfortunately if we do, I'll have to spend a good part of it doing work. I expect to get it off at this point.

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I'm not expecting too much, but BTV seems to be playing this pretty cautious.  I normally agree with them fully... I would've thought at least advisories for the southern tier of counties or at least western Rutland/Windsor/Orange...maybe even Washington County.  I know they mentioned long duration, but I'd think those counties (or at least above 1,000ft in those counties) have a good shot at 4"+ in a 12-24 hour period.

 

But I won't knock 'em, they do a fantastic job and give their reasoning in the AFD for no headlines.  North of I-89 there's no reason for anything, but I'm surprised the SE flow spots like Ludlow/Orange Heights/Killington area, etc don't have anything.

 

They did have a fair amount of rain in the forecast too, as most of the zones say, "Numerous rain or snow showers" and the wording implies that rain would be the preferred p-type?  At least I've always thought they one that came first was the higher probability p-type in those zones/grids.

 

 

 

 

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Here's the zone forecast for up here...

 

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers until midnight... Then mostly cloudy with scattered snow or rain showers after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

Wednesday: Numerous snow or rain showers. Snow accumulation a dusting to 2 inches possible. Breezy with highs in the mid 30s. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Numerous rain or snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Lows in the upper 20s. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday: Cloudy with scattered rain or snow showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.
 

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Anyway, got 0.5" of dust overnight.  The type of stuff that does absolutely nothing except pad the seasonal totals as it gets added up over time.

 

 

I love this stuff, you can get a half inch and still see the surface underneath.  Could probably get an inch or two and still see the bed surface, lol.

 

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You should do the best of any of us VT posters in this set up... the SE flow is a no-brainer in the Orange Heights ;)

.

 

We have a very nice 'window' in that direction (can see 25 miles or so into NH) and seem to get enough lift for a little extra snow.  Also, the western Whites are enough north of us not to be an impediment like they can be in parts of Caledonia Co. and northen Grafton Co., NH.

 

Not really feeling this one this morning but we'll probably get a sticky few.

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I'm not expecting too much, but BTV seems to be playing this pretty cautious.  I normally agree with them fully... I would've thought at least advisories for the southern tier of counties or at least western Rutland/Windsor/Orange...maybe even Washington County.  I know they mentioned long duration, but I'd think those counties (or at least above 1,000ft in those counties) have a good shot at 4"+ in a 12-24 hour period.

 

But I won't knock 'em, they do a fantastic job and give their reasoning in the AFD for no headlines.  North of I-89 there's no reason for anything, but I'm surprised the SE flow spots like Ludlow/Orange Heights/Killington area, etc don't have anything.

 

They did have a fair amount of rain in the forecast too, as most of the zones say, "Numerous rain or snow showers" and the wording implies that rain would be the preferred p-type?  At least I've always thought they one that came first was the higher probability p-type in those zones/grids.

Since correlation always equals causation, this ice-rotting sap running mud making weather pattern for the Champlain Valley is due solely to the fact that the forecast wizards (prolly Nash) at BTV forgot to re-order magenta for their printer some time after the epic 2011 winter.

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Actually it's Rayond Pond. Sebago is slightly visible, but off to the far right. I'm hoping to get a better outdoor cam with good resolution to clean things up.

 

 

lol, It looked like Frye and Dingley Isle from that view

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I asked in the main thread but got no response.  Was a low supposed to be forming in SC?  It looks like one has been developing there this morning.

 

post-1533-0-54594600-1361901209_thumb.gi

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I asked in the main thread but got no response.  Was a low supposed to be forming in SC?  It looks like one has been developing there this morning.

I think there was a trough of low pressure shown on some of the earlier models--extending southeast from the parent low over the Mississippi valley toward the Carolinas

 

Looks like the pressure on the map you posted is lower than what was shown on the models though, so that's something of note.

 

This is smelling more and more like a hill-country paste-job.

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I'm telling you guys, this has LSC screw job written all over it! Cross barrier flow is very strong, and instability is relatively high in the lower levels during the day tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised if St. J sees an inch, while Walden/Danville/Orange heights above 1,200-1,500 feet see 5-8". Thank god I'm not there. 

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I think there was a trough of low pressure shown on some of the earlier models--extending southeast from the parent low over the Mississippi valley toward the Carolinas

 

Looks like the pressure on the map you posted is lower than what was shown on the models though, so that's something of note.

 

This is smelling more and more like a hill-country paste-job.

I had a look at the Euro on wundermaps.  It did show a 1000mb low just NE of there but it doesn't do much after that.

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I just notice BTV took rain out of my forecast for Wed night with the midday update though it is still there for the day on Thurs.

 

This was in the AFD update (along with the map that PF posted above):

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...AS OF 1245 PM EST TUESDAY...SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CRNT FCSTWITH LATEST UPDATE. HAVE HOISTED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR EASTERNDACKS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MOUNTAINS FOR 6 TO 10INCHES OF SNOW. ALSO...HAVE PLACED WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR PORTIONSOF THE SLV...WESTERN CPV...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN MTNS FOR3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ADVISORY/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 06ZTONIGHT THRU 12Z THURS. SNOW WL BE VERY ELEVATION DEPEND WITHHIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 1500 FT...ALSO EXPECT SOME SHADOWINGASSOCIATED WITH SE DOWNSLOPE WINDS. REST OF TODAY...EXPECT TEMPSTO WARM IN THE M30S TO L40S WITH LIGHT WINDS.

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