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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Do you think the skiing will still be good by Sunday?  Worth a drive up from Maryland?  I was hopeful for the area to get crushed this weekend but that is looking less likely today.  My luck has sucked for two years now with weekend ski trips, almost every weekend I have left open for a possible Vermont road trip, there has been no snow.  This is my last shot this year, so its now or wait till next year. 

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Interesting little event. I wonder why Jay Peak didn't come out completely on top, though. I wonder where exactly in Westfield that measurement was taken. You'd think the elevation of Jay would have the edge over any other nearby hill.

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A very interesting upslope event... just crushing the far northern Greens.

 

It looks like here in Stowe I ended up with 7" this morning (might have been some compaction overnight) but seems right in line with the other 6.9" observation from CoCoRAHS down in the Lower Village.  You can tell as you head south in the RT 100 corridor, amounts drop to 4-5" even a few miles south of here.

 

Looks nice to have a low-end warning criteria snowfall to freshen everything up...town looks beautiful today. 

 

But wow at the totals up north.

 

attachicon.gifimage.png

I was just going to ask if you saw this map.  That's one heck of a bulls-eye for the Northern Greens.  Congrats to the skiers and the resorts up there.  We all win when the ski resorts are getting hammered and the crowds are coming up from Boston and New York.

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Some more photos from today...

 

45848_10151249729892382_582576309_n.jpg

 

207390_10151249729787382_1863665859_n.jp

 

This sequence just about sums it up... deep snow.  Thank you orographic lift.

 

24313_10151249730077382_1303950219_n.jpg

 

207380_10151249730102382_1448916221_n.jp

 

307365_10151249729977382_1860820185_n.jp

 

318216_10151249730267382_1920286395_n.jp

 

480163_10151249729867382_1059232774_n.jp

 

 

Its hard to get much better than today... well, last year's 36" in 36 hours event was better.  But after a couple weeks of snow without thaw, then a dense 3-4" followed by a fluffy 11-14" brings conditions up to prime levels.

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Interesting little event. I wonder why Jay Peak didn't come out completely on top, though. I wonder where exactly in Westfield that measurement was taken. You'd think the elevation of Jay would have the edge over any other nearby hill.

 

downwind sheltered area just adjacent to the high elevations would be my guess.  

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Are we talking upslope at this point or is this WAA from the north?  Looks like warm air has wrapped all the way around the storm and to the north of the area.  Is this triggering this batch along with the surface frontogenesis just to the north of the border?

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Looks like weenie flakes coming thru here on radar

30-minute flurry dusted the bare patches here in AUG with a tenth or two, and got coworkers worried about their homeward commute - zero problems, at least from snow. Still the odd leftover flake drifting by.

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Are we talking upslope at this point or is this WAA from the north?  Looks like warm air has wrapped all the way around the storm and to the north of the area.  Is this triggering this batch along with the surface frontogenesis just to the north of the border?

WAA from the north often triggers some pretty sweet upslope events.

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Some more photos from today...

 

45848_10151249729892382_582576309_n.jpg

 

207390_10151249729787382_1863665859_n.jp

 

This sequence just about sums it up... deep snow.  Thank you orographic lift.

 

24313_10151249730077382_1303950219_n.jpg

 

207380_10151249730102382_1448916221_n.jp

 

307365_10151249729977382_1860820185_n.jp

 

318216_10151249730267382_1920286395_n.jp

 

480163_10151249729867382_1059232774_n.jp

 

 

Its hard to get much better than today... well, last year's 36" in 36 hours event was better.  But after a couple weeks of snow without thaw, then a dense 3-4" followed by a fluffy 11-14" brings conditions up to prime levels.

That is awesome.

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That is awesome.

 

Be interesting to see what the Co-Op comes in with... given that they run around 50% of reality most of the time, my guess is 5-8 inches for 24 hour total.

 

;)

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WAA from the north often triggers some pretty sweet upslope events.

 

Yes, my favorite one of those WAA from the north was March 3-4, 2006.... the ski resort got like two feet, but it ended up backing all the way to BTV with 10-14" even right to the lakeshore... one of those events that got more blocked with time.

 

I have no idea how I remember this, but I was in college at the time and it was a Friday night.  The forecast was for like Partly Cloudy skies in BTV... but late evening it was obvious that was wrong as it was snowing 1"/hr and we got like 10" of fluff overnight in downtown.  I think the airport had 14" from that event.

 

But that one was caused almost all from WAA rotating back south around a cut-off low near the Maritimes.

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downwind sheltered area just adjacent to the high elevations would be my guess.  

Makes sense. I didn't realize how strong the winds were last night until I saw the upper mountain lifts on Jay were on hold. Looks like Westfield "stole" the highest total from Jay.

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Do you think the skiing will still be good by Sunday? Worth a drive up from Maryland? I was hopeful for the area to get crushed this weekend but that is looking less likely today. My luck has sucked for two years now with weekend ski trips, almost every weekend I have left open for a possible Vermont road trip, there has been no snow. This is my last shot this year, so its now or wait till next year.

Are you serious?? Define no snow because I've skied every day I have had off work in VT since October. 45 days so far and only 4 or 5 of those were icy with limited terrain. There was always snow. Right now VT is basically 100% open. What are you waiting for? As far as how conditions will be...... You never know until you go and it's always better than you think.

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Are you serious?? Define no snow because I've skied every day I have had off work in VT since October. 45 days so far and only 4 or 5 of those were icy with limited terrain. There was always snow. Right now VT is basically 100% open. What are you waiting for? As far as how conditions will be...... You never know until you go and it's always better than you think.

Well I have to admit my luck has sucked.  THere have been some great powder weekends, but I was not able to make it.  I coach debate and we have lots of weekend tournaments.  I had 4 weekends put aside as a possible weekend trip up to New England.  The first 3 all came right after some horrible 50 degree rainstorm.  I read the reports on my powder app and was getting nothing but "sheet of ice" reports so I said no thanks.  I used to be hard core and would carve anything on my K2 recons, but since getting a bit older, and switching to a pair of atomic access powder ski's I would rather pass on icy stuff.  Usually if I set aside a few weekends, one works out with a big dump.  The last two years I have been unlucky, the powder seems to be avoiding me.  Keep in mind also we are talking about a 10 hour drive for me so I am not going to do that to ski on crud.  I am thinking of Sugarbush this weekend.  I see they got 12", and its been forever since I was there, so long that I couldnt do their glades back then, so it would be a totally different mountain for me now.  Plus its an hour closer then Stowe and 2 hours closer then Jay and they might do a little better with the weekend system if it doesnt trend into nothingness.  Thoughts?

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4:30pm today.   last gasps of true winter.   arg,  mark on window. lol

post-510-0-97207800-1361483086_thumb.jpg

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Yes, my favorite one of those WAA from the north was March 3-4, 2006.... the ski resort got like two feet, but it ended up backing all the way to BTV with 10-14" even right to the lakeshore... one of those events that got more blocked with time.

 

I have no idea how I remember this, but I was in college at the time and it was a Friday night.  The forecast was for like Partly Cloudy skies in BTV... but late evening it was obvious that was wrong as it was snowing 1"/hr and we got like 10" of fluff overnight in downtown.  I think the airport had 14" from that event.

 

But that one was caused almost all from WAA rotating back south around a cut-off low near the Maritimes.

 

Yeah the Champlain Powder Jan 3, 2010 event where BTV got 33" was WAA from the North from a retrograding ocean storm too!

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Yeah the Champlain Powder Jan 3, 2010 event where BTV got 33" was WAA from the North from a retrograding ocean storm too!

 

This is awesome.  We apparently got 3" more than the summit all the way down here in town (3,000ft+ lower)! 

 

It truly is amazing... 18" at 3,000ft in the past 48 hours, and the Co-Op has had 8" at 3,950ft during that time, lol.  This is why I always post photos...hopefully it is evident that the snow those skiers/riders are in is closer to 14" in the last 24 hours rather than 4.5".

 

DAILY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DATANATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT547 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013STATION            PRECIP   TEMPERATURE   PRESENT         SNOW                   24 HRS   MAX MIN CUR   WEATHER     NEW TOTAL SWE...VERMONT...MOUNT MANSFIELD     0.22     9  -7   5   LIGHT FOG    4.5  65

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We've got a ways to go, no? 

NNE lasts longer by a week or two , but I'd say south of CON/ALB line it's over.    The sun is just too warm to call it winter....even out there on the slopes or etc. you can feel it,  the cold days aren't nearly as bad.

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Do you think the skiing will still be good by Sunday?  Worth a drive up from Maryland?  I was hopeful for the area to get crushed this weekend but that is looking less likely today.  My luck has sucked for two years now with weekend ski trips, almost every weekend I have left open for a possible Vermont road trip, there has been no snow.  This is my last shot this year, so its now or wait till next year. 

Did you see the totals from today?  Unless you require untracked powder it's good to go.  If this storm trends into the crapper just go to Stowe or North of there.

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Well I have to admit my luck has sucked. THere have been some great powder weekends, but I was not able to make it. I coach debate and we have lots of weekend tournaments. I had 4 weekends put aside as a possible weekend trip up to New England. The first 3 all came right after some horrible 50 degree rainstorm. I read the reports on my powder app and was getting nothing but "sheet of ice" reports so I said no thanks. I used to be hard core and would carve anything on my K2 recons, but since getting a bit older, and switching to a pair of atomic access powder ski's I would rather pass on icy stuff. Usually if I set aside a few weekends, one works out with a big dump. The last two years I have been unlucky, the powder seems to be avoiding me. Keep in mind also we are talking about a 10 hour drive for me so I am not going to do that to ski on crud. I am thinking of Sugarbush this weekend. I see they got 12", and its been forever since I was there, so long that I couldnt do their glades back then, so it would be a totally different mountain for me now. Plus its an hour closer then Stowe and 2 hours closer then Jay and they might do a little better with the weekend system if it doesnt trend into nothingness. Thoughts?

. Sugarbush this weekend will be a winner for sure. They are 100% open so it will be good for sure. Have a blast!!!

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Event totals: 7.5” Snow/0.34” L.E.

 

We picked up an additional half inch of snow during the day today, which may mark the end of this event based on the radar.  Next we’ll have to see what the potential weekend storm brings.

 

I updated the storm totals as of this evening for the Vermont ski areas; the north to south listing is below.  Smugg’s made a big leap in accumulation from this morning, and aside from Burke being way out to the east, you can see the numbers line right up down the spine.

 

Jay Peak: 27”

Burke: 5”

Smuggler’s Notch: 24”

Stowe: 18”

Bolton Valley: 16”

Mad River Glen: 16”

Sugarbush: 12”

Pico: 8”

Killington: 8”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 8”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 7”

 

I stopped in at Bolton for a few runs this afternoon, and my measurements generally revealed powder depths in the 15 – 19” range above the subsurface  That settled powder depth isn’t all from this event since the snow has recently been piling up, but it was some damn find skiing with a right side up gradient topped off with Champlain Powder™ as Powderfreak mentioned in his post.  I’ve added a few pictures below, and the full report is at our website:

 

21FEB13E.jpg

 

21FEB13D.jpg

 

21FEB13G.jpg

 

This storm cycle was somewhat auspicious in that the snow depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake has finally gone back above average for the first time in a month and a half:

 

21FEB13H.jpg

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 19.4 F

Sky: Flurries

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

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Nice sunrise from the office this morning...shot with iPhone so not my usual quality but should've gotten some great ones with the Cannon of the ridgeline as it turned red, then pink, then orange.   

 

 

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Between sugarbush Stowe and Smuggs which is least likely to have wind issues Sunday?

 

I'm seeing winds of like 15-30mph on Sunday... wouldn't worry about it.  This isn't like last weekend where the coastal low just exploded into a bomb in the Maritimes.  Gradient isn't that impressive.

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Can someone explain to me how exactly the "Jay Cloud" works? Meaning, why in events like this one and the last upslope, Jay can get significantly more snow than points south? I skied Jay yesterday (and will again today) and can vouch for >20" of low-density. And yes, wind slab cracks and some impressive slough runs in the steep woods, leaving little crowns behind ... Interesting ...

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Listening to Roger Hill’s broadcast from this morning, he’s going with a 3-6”/4-8” event for this weekend in Northern/North-Central Vermont, and our point forecast from the NWS seems generally in line with 3-7”.  The graphical point forecast for our location looks nice:

 

22FEB13A.jpg

 

The forecast temperatures also seem quite comfortable, and even if they’re marginal down in the valley, the mountains shouldn’t have that issue.

 

It’s nice to see the more substantial snowfalls coming through the area with a bit more frequency; it feels more like the Northern Greens again, and thanks to this most recent event, February snowfall (25.1”) has already surpassed January’s total (21.9”).  Using the numbers through yesterday, monthly snowfall is still running rather low at 79.5% of average, but seasonal snowfall is fluctuating around that 90% zone at 88.2%.  A couple of decent snowfall events in the next week could get February snowfall into a respectable range, but almost 20” is still needed to get to average, so we’d have to have at least one fairly significant system to get it on the positive side of the mean.

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