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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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Event totals: 7.0” Snow/0.32” L.E.

 

I was up to take a midnight reading off the snowboard, but there really wasn’t much snow during the overnight period.  I’ve got the latest BTV maps and text below; we’ll need another pulse of moisture in our area to get to the 8-10”/10-14” that the forecast map has us in, although it sounds like there might be something in the afternoon today.

 

21FEB13A.jpg

 

21FEB13B.jpg

WWUS41 KBTV 210841

WSWBTV

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

341 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013

 

VTZ003-006-008-016>018-211700-

/O.CON.KBTV.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130221T2100Z/

ORLEANS-LAMOILLE-WASHINGTON-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-

EASTERN ADDISON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...JOHNSON...STOWE...

MONTPELIER...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...

RIPTON

341 AM EST THU FEB 21 2013

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON...

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

 

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE

  WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORLEANS...LAMOILLE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES.

 

* HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 16 INCHES OF DRY FLUFFY SNOW WITH 10 TO 20

  INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

 

* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.

 

* TIMING...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH

  EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF.

 

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS...REDUCED

  VISIBILITIES...AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING DRIFTING.

 

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

 

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S.

 

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES IN MODERATE TO

  OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

PERSONS ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND IN NORTH CENTRAL

VERMONT SHOULD BE AWARE THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE

DAY RESULTING IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. LOW VISIBILITIES AND

DRIFTING SNOW WILL ALSO COMPLICATE TRAVEL. TAKE THE NECESSARY ACTIONS

WHEN DEALING WITH THIS STORM.

 

&&

 

$$

 

EVENSON

 

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. and 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations are below:

 

12:00 A.M.

 

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 46.0

Snow Density: 2.2% H2O

Temperature: 22.3 F

Sky: Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 12.0 inches

 

6:00 A.M.

 

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 11.1 F

Sky: Light Snow (1 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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Well, it took a while but the orographic stuff finally spilled over this far east.

 

Nothing like you spine-folk though:  1.3" so far and still snowing lightly.  Still looks nice though.  :snowing:

 

Holy smokes at the Jay pic.  I really should skip work today and go skiing....

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We had an inch overnight.  Only came in 28" behind Westfield (to the east of Jay Peak).

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/spotterReports/

 

 

..CHITTENDEN COUNTY...   3 SE WEST BOLTON       8.0   801 AM  2/21  BOLTON VALLEY RESORT       UNDERHILL CENTER       4.0   723 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            1 E NASHVILLE          3.0   641 PM  2/20  NWS EMPLOYEE               4 NNE UNDERHILL        2.5   700 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                   JONESVILLE             2.0   500 AM  2/21  NWS EMPLOYEE               1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO     T   733 AM  2/21  NWS OFFICE              ...FRANKLIN COUNTY...   MONTGOMERY CENTER     16.0   800 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER            ENOSBURG CENTER       16.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS           1 NW RICHFORD         13.1  1200 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER                         ...LAMOILLE COUNTY...   1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC  11.0   758 AM  2/21  STOWE RESORT               BELVIDERE CENTER       8.0   709 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            3 NE HYDE PARK         7.2   630 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                   STOWE                  6.2   900 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            1 WNW CAMBRIDGE        5.0   759 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE   4.5   814 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER           ...ORLEANS COUNTY...   1 WNW WESTFIELD       29.0   740 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                   4 WSW JAY             21.0   708 AM  2/21  JAY PEAK                   TROY                  13.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS           CRAFTSBURY             7.0   735 AM  2/21  BROADCAST MEDIA            

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We had an inch overnight. Only came in 28" behind Westfield (to the east of Jay Peak).

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/spotterReports/

..CHITTENDEN COUNTY...
   3 SE WEST BOLTON       8.0   801 AM  2/21  BOLTON VALLEY RESORT    
   UNDERHILL CENTER       4.0   723 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 E NASHVILLE          3.0   641 PM  2/20  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   4 NNE UNDERHILL        2.5   700 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                
   JONESVILLE             2.0   500 AM  2/21  NWS EMPLOYEE            
   1 NE SOUTH BURLINGTO     T   733 AM  2/21  NWS OFFICE              

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
   MONTGOMERY CENTER     16.0   800 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   ENOSBURG CENTER       16.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS        
   1 NW RICHFORD         13.1  1200 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER         
                

...LAMOILLE COUNTY...
   1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC  11.0   758 AM  2/21  STOWE RESORT            
   BELVIDERE CENTER       8.0   709 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   3 NE HYDE PARK         7.2   630 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                
   STOWE                  6.2   900 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 WNW CAMBRIDGE        5.0   759 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER         
   1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE   4.5   814 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER         

  

...ORLEANS COUNTY...
   1 WNW WESTFIELD       29.0   740 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                
   4 WSW JAY             21.0   708 AM  2/21  JAY PEAK                
   TROY                  13.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS        
   CRAFTSBURY             7.0   735 AM  2/21  BROADCAST MEDIA         

Impressive totals!! Congratulations to all of you...I love it when ski country gets smacked. 29" is just pure insanity, though. Enjoy the turns!

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BTV sounding a little more positive about something this weekend

 

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST THURSDAY...FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
TIME FRAME THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE...ONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND A STRONGER LOW OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES AS FAR AS
THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW GOES. LATEST ECMWF CAME IN WITH THE
LOW PASSING OUTSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK SUNDAY MORNING. GFS HAS THE
LOW A BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD...AND THE NAM BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS
CAPE COD. NORTHERN STREAM LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE OUR FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
SOME SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH TRACK OF STRONG
COASTAL LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AT THE ONSET
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA. LOW MOVES AWAY
FROM THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME NORTHWEST FLOW
WRAPAROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
BTV sounding a little more optimistic for something this weekend

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BTV sounding a little more positive about something this weekend

 

Yeah, I would say unless there are some hefty changes in things either direction, we're in the game for at lest a medium sized event. 

 

:ski:

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Great discussion out of BTV... "either way, Jay Peak will hit the jackpot"  lol.

 

Well, that was a quote from four days ago, so how does one rate that call from the BTV folks?  Let’s use the north to south listing of storm totals from the Vermont ski areas below.  I think the Burke number speaks volumes about being on the spine:

 

Jay Peak: 27”

Burke: 3”

Smuggler’s Notch: 12”

Stowe: 18”

Bolton Valley: 15”

Mad River Glen: 16”

Sugarbush: 12”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Okemo: 6”

Bromley: 8”

Stratton: 6”

Mount Snow: 7”

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Some updated totals 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/spotterReports/

 

 

 

...CALEDONIA COUNTY...          PEACHAM                1.0   913 AM  2/21  PUBLIC  

 

...FRANKLIN COUNTY...

 

   BAKERSFIELD           24.0   859 AM  2/21  PUBLIC                     ENOSBURG CENTER       16.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS           MONTGOMERY CENTER     16.0   800 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER            1 NW RICHFORD         13.5  1030 AM  2/21  TRAINED SPOTTER                               ...LAMOILLE COUNTY...   EDEN                  24.0   858 AM  2/21  PUBLIC                     WATERVILLE            18.0   856 AM  2/21  PUBLIC                     1 SSE SMUGGLERS NOTC  11.0   758 AM  2/21  STOWE RESORT               BELVIDERE CENTER       8.0   709 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            3 NE HYDE PARK         7.2   630 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                   STOWE                  6.9   914 AM  2/21  PUBLIC                     5 N JEFFERSONVILLE     5.5   730 AM  2/21  CO-OP OBSERVER             1 WNW CAMBRIDGE        5.0   759 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER            1 NW SOUTH CAMBRIDGE   4.5   814 PM  2/20  TRAINED SPOTTER              ...ORLEANS COUNTY...   1 WNW WESTFIELD       29.0   740 AM  2/21  COCORAHS                   JAY PEAK              22.0   600 AM  2/21  CO-OP OBSERVER             4 WSW JAY             21.0   708 AM  2/21  JAY PEAK                   TROY                  13.0   345 AM  2/21  DEPT OF HIGHWAYS  

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I just saw the updated storm total snow forecast map from BTV, which certainly shows how totals are expected to be quite high near the northern tier:

 

21FEB13C.jpg

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Stowe had about 0-12 inches over the trails. Some places were blown clean. Some knee deep. Though I'm sure PF's boards are accuate. Decent snow too despite the slight wind affected flake structure.  Some serious wind slab cracking however.  I'd let the alpine sit a day or too...

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GFS doing its rollercoaster with qpf (though I've not seen 12z run.) 2-3 days back, it had AUG progged for about 0.1" this weekend. By 18z yest AUG was up to 1.2", this morning back under 0.5". Usually it waits until inside 48 hr before starting the downward slide. GYX also said in AM AFD that the storm would approach the BM then head east, or even south of east. Gives us a sniff then runs away (though even the 06z run would be 4-6", which would be nice after totaling 1.0" from the last two events.)

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GFS doing its rollercoaster with qpf (though I've not seen 12z run.) 2-3 days back, it had AUG progged for about 0.1" this weekend. By 18z yest AUG was up to 1.2", this morning back under 0.5". Usually it waits until inside 48 hr before starting the downward slide. GYX also said in AM AFD that the storm would approach the BM then head east, or even south of east. Gives us a sniff then runs away (though even the 06z run would be 4-6", which would be nice after totaling 1.0" from the last two events.)

 

Model shuffle at its finest

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Trends are pretty bad this morning. Great for SNE, lol.

 

 

All winter, Just not this storm, Really the only one that moved favorably was the Blizz, And it still left some on the outside

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All winter, Just not this storm, Really the only one that moved favorably was the Blizz, And it still left some on the outside

Yup. Except for the bliz, it's like the Route 2 snow shield has moved down to 43N.

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Yup. Except for the bliz, it's like the Route 2 snow shield has moved down to 43N.

 

I look outside at my snow pack if you want to call it that and i can taste puke in my mouth

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I look outside at my snow pack if you want to call it that and i can taste puke in my mouth

 

12z gfs drops AUG to under 0.3" qpf. Still time for backtracking, but this is beginning to resemble last weekend more than blizz weekend. And the copious qpf for 26-27 now looks more wet than white.

I should stop looking at KevInMA's snow table, where I'm currently 26th, trailing 12 entries from CT (some by 18"+) along with several from RI/MA plus all those from VT and all others from Maine. Looks like that will only become more depressing soon.

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12z gfs drops AUG to under 0.3" qpf. Still time for backtracking, but this is beginning to resemble last weekend more than blizz weekend. And the copious qpf for 26-27 now looks more wet than white.

I should stop looking at KevInMA's snow table, where I'm currently 26th, trailing 12 entries from CT (some by 18"+) along with several from RI/MA plus all those from VT and all others from Maine. Looks like that will only become more depressing soon.

 

I did not like the look of the 27th as depicted by the 12z GFS this go round, I have bad visions of the storm, That reminded me of the one 2 days ago as it looked similar and my results were very wet and not white, Its getting pretty late now in the season down this way as temps are above freezing during the day for the most part and cold at night to retain the snow pack, I have a paultry 6" left and usually we would be between 18-24"

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I did not like the look of the 27th as depicted by the 12z GFS this go round, I have bad visions of the storm, That reminded me of the one 2 days ago as it looked similar and my results were very wet and not white, Its getting pretty late now in the season down this way as temps are above freezing during the day for the most part and cold at night to retain the snow pack, I have a paultry 6" left and usually we would be between 18-24"

Only with about 3x the qpf. A 1.5"+ RA could end the timber harvest season for our West and East Regions (North would survive, especially since gfs gives them a moderate snowfall) and probably set up some serious ice jam flooding on the Sandy, which has residual jams from 1/31.

My avg snowpack ("regressed" using a running 15-day mean) peaks at 20-21" from Feb 20 thru Mar 10, and is currently at 11". Snomo trails are scratchy at best until one gets into the mts. (Trail on my woodlot takes a turn for the worse today, as the fellow doing my timber harvest just moved onto the small block where he'll have to skid on that trail for about 900'. Maybe it's a good thing the sledding is mediocre - he won't discomfit many riders.)

 

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Snow is starting to increase again at the mountain and westward.  Blocked flow right now and you can see it well on radar.  Only a few flurries to the east in Stowe Village now.  Should be interesting to see how this plays out as moisture is definitely increasing from the north again.

 

blockedflow.gif

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A very interesting upslope event... just crushing the far northern Greens.

 

It looks like here in Stowe I ended up with 7" this morning (might have been some compaction overnight) but seems right in line with the other 6.9" observation from CoCoRAHS down in the Lower Village.  You can tell as you head south in the RT 100 corridor, amounts drop to 4-5" even a few miles south of here.

 

Looks nice to have a low-end warning criteria snowfall to freshen everything up...town looks beautiful today. 

 

But wow at the totals up north.

 

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