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WidreMann told us it was gonna snow thread


LithiaWx

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Nicely done! I enjoyed watching it and may your lovely neighborhood be graced with more snow.

 

Thanks so much!  I appreciate the kind thoughts.  From browsing other sub-forums, I believe you live in Maine, sir.  Is that correct?  It's pretty cool that you visited our sub-forum for an event that must be nuisance level, at best, by your standards for winter weather.  That recent blizzard you guys experienced was phenomenal!  Again, thanks for the well wishes.

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Thanks so much! I appreciate the kind thoughts. From browsing other sub-forums, I believe you live in Maine, sir. Is that correct? It's pretty cool that you visited our sub-forum for an event that must be nuisance level, at best, by your standards for winter weather. That recent blizzard you guys experienced was phenomenal! Again, thanks for the well wishes.

Jerry is in Boston, as I recall.

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So does this mean everyone who has had there seasonal or close too it snowfall for the winter will quit crying about the winter being crappy? Lol. Congrats on who got some snow.

 

LOL, I think CLT was the one place that atleast got close, well I bet parts of SC went over there average from that one super band last night.

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I have 'analyzed' this storm for Charlotte (CLT) and Raleigh (RDU).

 

For Charlotte (at CLT), I've got a mix of rain and snow in the morning, and either a rain/snow mix or transitioning to all snow into early afternoon.  Precip will overall be on the light side.  Trace to a light dusting for Charlotte (GSP going with 'around an inch' of snow for CLT)

 

For Raleigh (at RDU), I've got a mix of rain and snow in the morning, transitioning to all snow in the afternoon.  Light to moderate precip, but snow amounts limited to a Trace to 1 inch (RAH going with something similar for RDU it looks like).

 

With respect to temperatures, the low level cold air advection is moving in from the NW & NNW.  The mountains will likely play some level of hindrance to the speed in which the cold air moves in east of the mountains.  This is different from cold air damning where the cold air is moving in unimpeded from the N / NE.  For temperatures I used a combination of GFS/GFS MOS/NAM/NAM MOS...reviewing both temps aloft and surface wet-bulb temps.

 

Give myself a big fail grade for my Charlotte call with CLT reporting 3.0....and a passing grade for the RDU call where they reported 0.7

 

To top it off, I was out of town and missed the CLT snow...lol

 

Saw phil (met) post the SPC mesoscale analysis of the Greenville, SC meso-low that formed (same as the Jan 2003 event).  I thought the GFS was bunk in hinting at this feature, but it was right.  I suppose the crashing heights just west of the apps were instrumental in it's development - I thought you would need a stronger vort max rounding the base of the trough along with better jet dynamics to see that type of feature.  I didn't post it, but the Sat 00z WRF NMM radar loop showed this feature well.

 

I thought the GFS handled this system well, particularly with the way it ramped up the qpf where other models lagged behind and how it showed hints of the Greenville meso-low.  In addition, going back to it's long range guidance, it was more in line with the idea of troughing in the east.  I'm generally a pro-Euro guy, but it did not handle this system well at all.  I've actually never seen the Euro be as bad as it has in spots this winter (though the NE folks wouldn't say that).  I suppose progressive flow like we've seen this winter is where the GFS will tend to be at it's best.  I also thought the UKMet did well.  It had several runs in a row there in the 3-4 day range where it was showing the crashing heights just west of the apps....just as it played out.

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Thanks so much!  I appreciate the kind thoughts.  From browsing other sub-forums, I believe you live in Maine, sir.  Is that correct?  It's pretty cool that you visited our sub-forum for an event that must be nuisance level, at best, by your standards for winter weather.  That recent blizzard you guys experienced was phenomenal!  Again, thanks for the well wishes.

I'm in the Boston area. We've been blessed of late. This storm in this thread was particularly interesting because we both got hit on some level. I love it when snow hits areas not as used to it. The pure joy is great.

And remember, any snow is good snow!

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I'm in the Boston area. We've been blessed of late. This storm in this thread was particularly interesting because we both got hit on some level. I love it when snow hits areas not as used to it. The pure joy is great.

And remember, any snow is good snow!

 

I definitely concur with your final statement there.  Nice to make your acquaintance!

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Give myself a big fail grade for my Charlotte call with CLT reporting 3.0....and a passing grade for the RDU call where they reported 0.7

 

To top it off, I was out of town and missed the CLT snow...lol

 

Saw phil (met) post the SPC mesoscale analysis of the Greenville, SC meso-low that formed (same as the Jan 2003 event).  I thought the GFS was bunk in hinting at this feature, but it was right.  I suppose the crashing heights just west of the apps were instrumental in it's development - I thought you would need a stronger vort max rounding the base of the trough along with better jet dynamics to see that type of feature.  I didn't post it, but the Sat 00z WRF NMM radar loop showed this feature well.

 

I thought the GFS handled this system well, particularly with the way it ramped up the qpf where other models lagged behind and how it showed hints of the Greenville meso-low.  In addition, going back to it's long range guidance, it was more in line with the idea of troughing in the east.  I'm generally a pro-Euro guy, but it did not handle this system well at all.  I've actually never seen the Euro be as bad as it has in spots this winter (though the NE folks wouldn't say that).  I suppose progressive flow like we've seen this winter is where the GFS will tend to be at it's best.  I also thought the UKMet did well.  It had several runs in a row there in the 3-4 day range where it was showing the crashing heights just west of the apps....just as it played out.

 

I was actually quite pleasantly surprised with the nice quick (very quick) 3 inch total.  Thought for sure this was a dusting storm if that.  When you say the "meso-low" is that similar to the "lee-troughing" that was discussed?   Sure enough though the GFS was right in the higher QPF, I thought it did very well with this storm too.  Agree that's it's been the much better model this winter. 

 

Props to Brad Panovich too who made the call on the thundersnow, which sure enough gave us a nice little accumulation on the grassy areas. 

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That was a nice surprise. Too bad the ground was warm or it would have been a better total. All the snow I got Saturday morning and afternoon was all but gone by 7:00 that evening, and then I look out the window at 11:00 that night and see the ground and cars are covered even more than there were earlier. I didn't even know it had snowed, but we must have gotten a nice snowfall sometimes between 7:00 and 11:00. Most of it was gone by yesterday everning.

 

Still below average for the winter. Maybe we'll get another one before winter ends to get to normal.

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I was actually quite pleasantly surprised with the nice quick (very quick) 3 inch total.  Thought for sure this was a dusting storm if that.  When you say the "meso-low" is that similar to the "lee-troughing" that was discussed?   Sure enough though the GFS was right in the higher QPF, I thought it did very well with this storm too.  Agree that's it's been the much better model this winter. 

 

Props to Brad Panovich too who made the call on the thundersnow, which sure enough gave us a nice little accumulation on the grassy areas. 

 

Yes.  Below is an archived 12hr forecast from the 06z Sat GFS.  The coastal surface low is forming off Wilmington, and this shows a trough axis back to the meso-low near Greenville, SC that forms as the dynamics aloft approach from the west....you can see the bulge in the isobars over SC and eastern GA.  It's this feature that enhanced the snow across northern SC and in the southern foothills/piedmont in NC as it tracked ESE toward Myrtle Beach.

 

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