June Severe Thread

[downeastnc]

There is already a thread dedicated to it. No need to change titles on an old thread.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39922-severe-weather-outbreak-april-9-11th-disc/

There is also no need for bunches of threads about severe weather and this is the one we have had running so far this year...but hey you guys wanna have a thread for every single severe threat go for it

[Jon]

There is also no need for bunches of threads about severe weather and this is the one we have had running so far this year...but hey you guys wanna have a thread for every single severe threat go for it

I agree with you man. Major outbreak potential over NC/ga/al or something like that, sure. But the event Wilkes made a thread for is mostly a central states outbreak.

[jburns]

I agree with you man. Major outbreak potential over NC/ga/al or something like that, sure. But the event Wilkes made a thread for is mostly a central states outbreak.

IMO we can handle all the upcoming severe discussion in one thread.  Once an an event gets underway an OBS thread would be appropriate, but not before.  That way we would have at most two severe threads active at a time.

[downeastnc]

IMO we can handle all the upcoming severe discussion in one thread.  Once an an event gets underway an OBS thread would be appropriate, but not before.  That way we would have at most two severe threads active at a time.

It would also make it easier to find later if we kept one main thread running and just reset it after a 1000 post or so.....obviously some major event like a April 16th would require its own thread. 

 

RAH still hinting at maybe something severe wise here

 

 

. IN ADDITION...WHILE ITS TOOSOON TO POINT OUT SPECIFIC DETAILS...WE CAN`T RULE OUT THEPOSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG OR HIGHER-IMPACT CONVECTION ALONG OR JUSTAHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT.

[NC_hailstorm]

Looks like the hype is already in full mode,TWC and local TV trying to work the public up into a frenzy 5 days out.Sure we might get some weather but can we please give it a day or two out to see what we're dealing with?

 

Gets worse every year.

[jburns]

Looks like the hype is already in full mode,TWC and local TV trying to work the public up into a frenzy 5 days out.Sure we might get some weather but can we please give it a day or two out to see what we're dealing with?

 

Gets worse every year.

 

I call it Wilkosis.

[Isopycnic]

I call it Wilkosis.

Wilkcrossis.

[downeastnc]

Looks like the hype is already in full mode,TWC and local TV trying to work the public up into a frenzy 5 days out.Sure we might get some weather but can we please give it a day or two out to see what we're dealing with?

 

Gets worse every year.

Yeah the need to be the first to call it is getting bad, the models have gotten better but I dunno if they are this good yet. 

 

That said RAH did put out a HWO for the potential for strong to severe storms late week this morning and it seemed kinda early to me, and the AFD this afternoon hits on it pretty well

 

 

 

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT INTOFRIDAY...AND WHILE SOME PART OF THIS PERIOD SHOULD END UP WITH ATLEAST NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...DEPICTING THAT EXACTPERIOD IS DIFFICULT GOING INTO THE FIFTH DAY DUE TO TIMINGDIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE. AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVETHAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOVES INTOTHE CONUS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MODELAGREEMENT SHOULD INCREASE WITH REGARD TO TIMING. WITH A SMALLCHANCES OF SHOWERS REMAINING FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY EAST OF U.S. 1...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A STABLE...DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED. SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER RELATIVE TO SUNDAY ASSHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST CONSISTENTLY FOR SUNDAY.

[downeastnc]

AFD from RAH starting to downplay the event for most of NC as timing looks to be a issue and this will more than likely not be a serious event, of course things can change again but the models seem to be getting a handle on it. 

 

 

 WITH AN ASSOCIATEDPRIMARY SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE GREATLAKES AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST U.S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT... WITH ATRAILING COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMSCROSSING OUR AREA IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION THURSDAY NIGHT INTOFRIDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THEPREVIOUS FORECAST. FOR NOW WILL SPEED UP THE TIMING A BIT... SHOWINGLIKELY POPS FROM LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLYFRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED ANDFOCUSED OVER A SHORTER TIME FRAME WHEN THE TIMING BECOMES MORECLEAR. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... GIVEN THE FASTER TIMING THERE APPEARSTO BE LESS OF A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS... THANKS TO THE OVERNIGHTINTO MAINLY MORNING TIMING... WITH VERY MINIMAL MLCAPE TO WORK WITH.HOWEVER... GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET(WITH 925-850 MB WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 55 KTS) WE COULD STILL SEE AFEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACCOMPANY THE BAND OF SHOWERS ANDSTORMS... WITH THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMMING WIND GUSTS. MOST OF THEGUIDANCE HAS THE EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT AND BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMSTO THE EAST OF THE RAH CWA BY AROUND 18Z FRIDAY... WITH THE MORESIGNIFICANT SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER/DRY AIR NOT ARRIVING UNTILFRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE SURFACE WINDS SWING AROUND FROM SOUTHWESTERLYTO NORTHWESTERLY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP WITH THE SECONDARYCOLD FRONT... JUST AN ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CLOUD COVER (WITH GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 775-800MB).

[downeastnc]

Maybe get a chance to chase after all Friday.......still I dont trust it when I see stuff like instability "despite mostly cloudy to overcast skies" as those tend top not work out most of the time..and the timing is suspect a few hrs earlier and its a no go. Still me and Shaggy have Friday off so we will be able to chase if we get lucky a actually get a trend towards a more favorable setup for severe.

 

From RAH

 

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY:
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ACROSS OUR REGION BY FRIDAY. THE BEST
HEIGHT FALLS AND PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER... A SECONDARY
S/W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC BY FRIDAY MIDDAY. THIS WILL
HELP PROPEL AN INITIAL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
MORNING... WITH A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. WRT A SEVERE THREAT... DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 TO 60 KTS... WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
(925-850 MB WINDS OF UP TO 45 TO 60 KTS POSSIBLE). HOWEVER... GIVEN
THE TIMING OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE
AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY
FRIDAY... EXPECT INSTABILITY MAY BE THE LACKING COMPONENT TO A GOOD
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. STILL GIVEN EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S... THE LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND A
COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG TO AS MUCH AS 500-600 J/KG (MOST OF THE NAM)...
WITH POSSIBLY AN UPWARD TREND IN INSTABILITY AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVES THROUGH OUR FAR EAST (AS WE BEGIN TO HEAT UP AND
DESTABILIZE). HOWEVER... LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
REMAIN POOR AS SOUNDING BECOME QUITE MOIST. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SHEAR STILL THINK WE COULD SEE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT... WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPWARD SWING IN
THE INTENSITY OF THE LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN AREAS
OF OUR CWA WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW INCREASING SURFACE
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING (DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST
SKIES EXPECTED). THIS IS WHERE IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE THE HIGHEST. IN ADDITION TO THE IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR... THE NAM AND GFS ARE INDICATING 0-1 KM SRH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 250 TO 350 MS/S2 RANGE AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
AGAIN... THE BEST THREAT MAY END UP BEING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA GIVEN THE INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING. THUS... THINK THE BEST
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WOULD BE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.

[SharonA]

First TOR of the day?

 

291
WFUS54 KJAN 111631
TORJAN
MSC069-099-111730-
/O.NEW.KJAN.TO.W.0046.130411T1631Z-130411T1730Z/
[...]
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NESHOBA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
  KEMPER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
[...]
* AT 1131 AM CDT...A TORNADO WAS INDICATED NEAR HERBERT SPRINGS
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  LIBERTY BY 1140 AM CDT...
  BLUFF SPRINGS BY 1145 AM CDT...
  DE KALB BY 1150 AM CDT...
[...]
LAT...LON 3258 8879 3258 8899 3293 8879 3293 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 1631Z 213DEG 42KT 3262 8888


 

[NC_hailstorm]

Another hyped up FROPA come and gone for the CLT area.

[metalicwx366]

Tornado watch up for Florida and SW GA. The HRRR and RUC nailed the radar pictures for now. They were the only models that had the precipation this widespread this early yesterday. All the other models were bringing in the precip late this Afternoon to overnight.

[Clyde]

Pretty intense tornado warned couplet just went through Cocoa, FL. Wouldn't be surprised if that one produced.

[Clyde]

Think i see the "extremely dangerous and life threatening situation" in Florida about once a year:

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY...

 

AT 846 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION.  THIS TORNADO WAS CROSSING
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY NEAR COCOA TOWARDS MERRITT ISLAND AND
STATE ROUTE 5 28...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BELLWOOD...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK...PORT CANAVERAL...KENNEDY
SPACE CENTER...MERRITT ISLAND WILDLIFE REFUGE AND PLAYALINDA BEACH.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. THIS
STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO. IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS TORNADO...TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY!

[DBriedis]

Port Canaveral webcam. One heck of a light show right now.

http://portcanaveralwebcam.com/

[metalicwx366]

The latest warning says the tornado has a high degree of confidence. Never heard that before.

[Disc]

Port Canaveral webcam. One heck of a light show right now.

http://portcanaveralwebcam.com/

 

Thanks for the link. I have the volume full blast and listening to the rain and thunder. 

[WilkesboroDude]

Day 3 Moderate Risk Issued...severe weather for Carolinas by Friday.

 

[jburns]

Day 3 Moderate Risk Issued...severe weather for Carolinas by Friday.

 

That map does not indicate severe weather Friday for the Carolinas.

[WilkesboroDude]

We may need a seperate thread if this goes to High Risk likely a Mod Risk further east for some. Stay tuned.

[VeronicaCorningstone]

Day 3 Moderate Risk Issued...severe weather for Carolinas by Friday.

 

 

Huh?  How did you get severe threat for us out of this?  There's nothing even on the Day 5 SWO for us.  

[WilkesboroDude]

Huh?  How did you get severe threat for us out of this?  There's nothing even on the Day 5 SWO for us.  

 

You must not know much about severe weather.

 

Anyway, for our region in TN and Mississippi the ongoing outbreak or squall line will be moving east through Thursday/Friday for them.

 

 

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE

PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH AND A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED

MAX OVER MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED

TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN STRONG/SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION DURING

THE DAY4 PERIOD WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THAT MORE MEANINGFUL LAPSE RATES

WILL BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THERE IS REASON

TO BELIEVE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND FROM

THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF LA...NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF STRONG MID

LEVEL SPEED MAX. AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY ADVANCE INTO

THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

[SmokeEater]

We may need a seperate thread if this goes to High Risk likely a Mod Risk further east for some. Stay tuned.

This won't be anything but a slight risk anywhere near you. As of now you're not even included in the Day 4-8.

[WilkesboroDude]

This won't be anything but a slight risk anywhere near you. As of now you're not even included in the Day 4-8.

 

I am not discussing just my backyard here...people don't like that. The South-East region extends well to the west of western NC.

[SmokeEater]

Huh? How did you get severe threat for us out of this? There's nothing even on the Day 5 SWO for us.

You must not know much about severe weather.

Anyway, for our region in TN and Mississippi the ongoing outbreak or squall line will be moving east through Thursday/Friday for them.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE

PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF UPPER TROUGH AND A VERY STRONG MID LEVEL SPEED

MAX OVER MO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED

TO BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN STRONG/SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION DURING

THE DAY4 PERIOD WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE

BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THAT MORE MEANINGFUL LAPSE RATES

WILL BE OVERTURNED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THERE IS REASON

TO BELIEVE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND FROM

THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY OF LA...NNEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY

WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF STRONG MID

LEVEL SPEED MAX. AN ELONGATED SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY ADVANCE INTO

THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

And being the poster you are, if I were you, I really wouldn't trash somebody else, saying they don't know what they are talking about. Just sayin.

[SmokeEater]

This won't be anything but a slight risk anywhere near you. As of now you're not even included in the Day 4-8.

I am not discussing just my backyard here...people don't like that. The South-East region extends well to the west of western NC.

You said severe weather in the Carolinas by Friday, lol.

[WilkesboroDude]

You said severe weather in the Carolinas by Friday, lol.

 

Counting your chickens before the eggs hatch. We don't know how the situation will evolve this far out but I won't rule out eastern NC or SC seeing a Moderate risk. You first say how do I get severe wx out of this but in the very next post say slight risk? Most severe wx around here comes with Slight Risk.

[jburns]

Counting your chickens before the eggs hatch. We don't know how the situation will evolve this far out but I won't rule out eastern NC or SC seeing a Moderate risk. You first say how do I get severe wx out of this but in the very next post say slight risk? Most severe wx around here comes with Slight Risk.

 

 

Day 3 Moderate Risk Issued...severe weather for Carolinas by Friday.

 

 

Stop.  You said severe in the Carolinas Friday.  You can't run away from it now.  You made that statement while posting a map that in no way supported your statement. If you can not impart accurate information leave it to those that can.

[WilkesboroDude]

 Not running away from anything. The map backs it up by having a little common sense the squall line and associated features will go east.