Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

For the NYC area, it looks like we will be relying on and hoping for insane snow rates for a few hours to develop probably between midnight and 7 am Saturday or so. SREF shows greater than 50%+ chance of rain for several hours most of the day Friday and friday evening before switching to all snow Friday night. The no rain above here line sets up from around 287 in NJ east to southern CT and just north of cape cod

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After I pick up my GF today in PA I am thinking of trying to make it into the area.  I have AWD and am used to driving in snow.  What do you think about Waterbury CT?  Is that a pretty safe bet to see 20" plus?  I know going further east would be even better but at some point its going to just get too bad to drive and that's probably the furthest I can realistically get.  Originally I was thinking northern NJ then CT as the models have shifted east the last few runs, but now I am wondering if even western CT is safely into the real heavy snows. 

 

I have a holiday inn hotel in Marlboro MA, I have 2 beds and the guy I was going to share it with didn't come, you're def welcome to stay if you want, throw me a few bones no big deal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA TODAY INTO
SATURDAY...

NYZ078>081-177-179-081730-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.130208T1100Z-130209T1800Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
421 AM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 20 INCHES...WITH
  LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WITHIN DEVELOPING SNOW BANDS...MAINLY
  ACROSS EASTERN SUFFOLK.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S BY EVENING.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING
  INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND WINDS WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS DRIVING
  CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO IN WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS.
  IN ADDITION...SOME TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE DOWNED...
  CAUSING POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One observation the gfs initialized at kfrg with a temp of 36 at 6z, the temp was 34. The nam initialized at 34. I would go with the nam temp profile rather than the gfs.

I think too much is made of whether a model initialized one or two degrees too warm/cold and then extrapolate it to a models future performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bill Evans comparing this with the 2001 bust... hope it's not a bad omen... :violin:

You are mis stating what he said. His point was that a lot of pieces need to come together for a storm like this to happen. He said that in 2001 it happened up north

This time its happening here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature  blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll  take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think we should be WSW rather than blizzard warning for NYC and NE NJ....the blizzard warning should be limited to Long Island and new england

Its not a measure of snow for the 1000X time.

Seriously man ? Yes obviously blizzard is not simply a measure of snow. My statement is saying that most likely Long Island and New England will verify blizzard conditions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey guys projecting at this point is fruitless ma nature  blesses us with probably an historic storm nimby effect is envy over nothing last week i was pissing on sparkplugs, Beggars can't be choosy i'll  take whatever i get and my gut says alot of surprises and disappointments are going to happen part of the game.Stunningly beautiful on radar she is pissed off get your ticket for the magic carpet ride.I'm so pumped i'm not drinking coffee see ya peace

You got the right idea mulen. We've been following these things for too long to twist on model runs at this point. Storm looks healthy, sit back and enjoy! See ya! :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...