SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This freaking thing is taking on a tropical look. So awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So far it seems to be following the path of the nam, the 0z gfs had it more offshore by now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Question, How much do SST's really effect a system like this at this time of the year? Been looking into current SST's and it is -quite- warm still all the way through the southern tip of VA. Been follow current obvs and we're closing in on a 1000mb low that hasn't climbed past NC in latitude yet. 6 hour forecast has this sub 995 and not even at the Delmarva yet. If the storm ends undergoing a small dose of rapid cyclogenisis wouldn't we see a track closer to the coast? It is not the end all be all, otherwise every single low pressure passing over those warm SST's would rapidly deepen, which doesn't occur. It helps, but upper air dynamics are the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 gfs is warmer at 12 but slightly colder for nyc at 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06Z GFS Initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It is not the end all be all, otherwise every single low pressure passing over those warm SST's would rapidly deepen, which doesn't occur. It helps, but upper air dynamics are the key. Yes, figured as much. Just didn't know how much SST's would have a play with the current set up we have going. Current: From earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 it then starts heading east even misses most of MA with the heavy totals (similar to 0z but slightly easy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 06Z GFS is weaker at HR 06. Makes no sense at all, given the current OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 32.0 here in eastern Queens. Worried that the dreaded rain/snow line will retreat late and will result in us losing QPF. Is there any recent factors that have evolved in the past few hours that would allow for this rain.snow line to retreat further south? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS looks pretty useless for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I think the GFS is just completely lost I guess you can't have all the models showing 1-2 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The 06Z GFS shears out the moisture through the entire event. Needs to be upgraded. Seriously. It's not even close the OBS. Well technically it wasn't built for mesoscale events anyway. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 06Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't be confused by the current look what is going on down south. I have been waiting all night for the precip just south of me to make a move north but its getting stuck as it hits the influence of the northern system. As the models show, the storm will start to be shunted east for a time as it hits that wall...until it phases and gets captured. I do not buy the GFS, it does not handle these things well...but its solution is not crazy and invalidated by current obs. It matters little what is going on right now, it all depends on how fast the phase happens and how quickly the system really wraps up with the northern branch system. If its slower and a bit disorganized in the early stages as the GFS shows, its going to wind up with a further east solution. Its not crazy, but I would still stick with a SREF/Euro blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Back on DEC 30 the NAM warmed the 925 level and no one bought it . Be careful , where as yesterday I thought NYC was a lock for 20 inches of snow - I dont anymore . I am more inclined to think around 10 ( which is still a formidable snowstorm) .Which matches the RGEM now From NYC and across Long Island I am begining to think 50 perc of what falls is rain now. The Euro is too cold vs whats on the board right now .We will now have to wait until the LP is east of AC before we snow hard ... 50 perc of what falls in NYC and East accross most of Long Island will be rain , Lets just hope the systems back end looks like the 0z NAM then no one will care about what falls on th front end .... Dont dismiss the warmer 850 s look , it fooled alot people back on Dec 30 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't be confused by the current look what is going on down south. I have been waiting all night for the precip just south of me to make a move north but its getting stuck as it hits the influence of the northern system. As the models show, the storm will start to be shunted east for a time as it hits that wall...until it phases and gets captured. I do not buy the GFS, it does not handle these things well...but its solution is not crazy and invalidated by current obs. It matters little what is going on right now, it all depends on how fast the phase happens and how quickly the system really wraps up with the northern branch system. If its slower and a bit disorganized in the early stages as the GFS shows, its going to wind up with a further east solution. Its not crazy, but I would still stick with a SREF/Euro blend. It's already organizing faster than expected. Also, the SREF/EURO blend is one of the best ways to go right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Road trip to Boston ?!lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There would be a lot of disappointed SNE weenies if the GFS came to fruition too. I doubt it will though, it's an outlier. Still frustrating how it just won't budge though, even this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6z suite makes me sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6z suite makes me sick. The GFS/RGEM is sickening, but the SREF and the NAM, not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The GFS/RGEM is sickening, but the SREF and the NAM, not so much. No good. welcome to the coastal plain, usualal screw zone, I was hyped, now not so much bad turn of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 There would be a lot of disappointed SNE weenies if the GFS came to fruition too. I doubt it will though, it's an outlier. Still frustrating how it just won't budge though, even this close to the event. I would be much more upset at losing the RGEM to the east/dry camp then the GFS. The RGEM has been in the euro/nam camp and is a useful tool, more accurate then the NAM, and it just folded. Models are obviously having issues with the meso scale features that have a major impact with this type of phasing late capture system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I just checked out the 03z SREF...about a foot of snow for the city. Snow rates of great than 2 inches per hour for about 4 hours with a window of 3 inch per hour snowfall in true early AM hours on Saturday possible. It looks like its much more of a quick hitter and doesn't really linger around with the backlash snows. Boston is another story with 20"+ and the hills of CT and MA are jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 After I pick up my GF today in PA I am thinking of trying to make it into the area. I have AWD and am used to driving in snow. What do you think about Waterbury CT? Is that a pretty safe bet to see 20" plus? I know going further east would be even better but at some point its going to just get too bad to drive and that's probably the furthest I can realistically get. Originally I was thinking northern NJ then CT as the models have shifted east the last few runs, but now I am wondering if even western CT is safely into the real heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The SREF hammers basically an area from western CT into ME with several hours of 3-4" snowfall and several more hours of 2-3" snowfall. If I had to pick up an area to set up camp it'd be in central MA. Should be exciting to see reports....maybe some in the 40+ range. The SREF also has NYC in the 10:1 ratio the entire storm. Into the New England area, however, it's 15:1 and even 20:1 muchof the storm. If 20:1 and the ratios for the duration of time it shows....it could easily be a foot of snow in 3-4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no expert fore sure, but the GFS has been seeing something the other models may not. tossing the GFS I suspect is a bad idea. most model have trended east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at rgem it doesn't look dry to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 no expert fore sure, but the GFS has been seeing something the other models may not. tossing the GFS I suspect is a bad idea. most model have trended east The GFS has seemed like the extreme version of a good general "idea"....like it is on to something but takes it too far. It trended east 75, all of the models trend east just 25 miles....it trends another 25 miles east....all of the miles trend 15 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looking at rgem it doesn't look dry to me But how warm? Can't win here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 From bergen county to s queens blizzard warnings it bring tears to my eyes and a robust angry storm coming like a freight train nowcasting mode throw the models and out and rock and roll. worry later with verification of accuracy for forecasting tools climatology included and teleconnections JB/Joe.D made a decent call from last weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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