IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The ECMWF has 17-20" of snow for Southern Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey now...it was only because everyone seemed to have a love affair with the euro and claimed that they would for some reason leave the forum if the euro cut amounts in any way for the NYC area....true story ! no, it was if the euro spit out a GFS like solution.....you will always get ticks and wobbles from run to run. your "i told you euro will be east" tonight was really bad.... and your posts about the GFS throughout the day today was just as bad. lets be real here, the euro kicked arse and every model played catch up to it. the fact that you do not realize that makes you look foolish, unless of course you start spinning and backtracking now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Been creeping up. 34 degrees now I think we have to deal with the mix and rain for a while unfortunately. The development of the phased low should be crazy though and flip us over fast. I'm actually up to 35 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can you do a select few for us NW folk.. SWF? FWN? Thanks.. SWF: 1.09". All snow FWN: 1.02" All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SWF: 1.09". All snow FWN: 1.02" All snow Thanks.. Much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Been creeping up. 34 degrees now If u live along the coast, yes the temps are rising. This will be a rain/mix event to start and turn to a heavy thumping snow. Stay calm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 SWF: 1.09". All snow FWN: 1.02" All snow thanks. decent ratios and we can get 12-15 nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Calm and expect the initial rain, just posting my obs. Just hoping we cool down quicker than forecast. If u live along the coast, yes the temps are rising. This will be a rain/mix event to start and turn to a heavy thumping snow. Stay calm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Intense deform bands have a lot higher then 10 to 1 ratios. People are forgetting that. A band like Dec. 26, 2010 or Jan. 27, 2011 would have at least 15 or 20 to 1 ratios. Don't look strictly at qpf numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Calm and expect the initial rain, just posting my obs. Just hoping we cool down quicker than forecast. Agreed. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Calm and expect the initial rain, just posting my obs. Just hoping we cool down quicker than forecast. Its going to be real close, the dewpoints are not going up as much as I'd have thought, if we are 35/28 or so when precip arrives it could get interesting but then we have the issue of whats happening at 850-925 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Hey now...it was only because everyone seemed to have a love affair with the euro and claimed that they would for some reason leave the forum if the euro cut amounts in any way for the NYC area....true story ! no, it was if the euro spit out a GFS like solution.....you will always get ticks and wobbles from run to run. your "i told you euro will be east" tonight was really bad.... and your posts about the GFS throughout the day today was just as bad. lets be real here, the euro kicked arse and every model played catch up to it. the fact that you do not realize that makes you look foolish, unless of course you start spinning and backtracking now. . Most consistent all the way through was the euro....yes I'll give you that. My point was that even the euro would still wobble a bit and adjust AS DID other models with a shift east, be it cutting 4-6" or 5-10" off the total from a previous run. I was simply making the point that I feel a model run like the GFS earlier will be CLOSER to the actual outcome then something obscene like the NAM and when taking a "blend of" models...the NAM shouldn't even be factored in. Kinda like saying "well his IQ is somewhere in between a 50 and a 200"....when you see all these hyped up posts about "NYC EASILY WILL GET 30"! I can't believe this is happening!" Etc etc....that's not just as bad or WORSE than stating facts and comments on model runs, albeit with a bit of negativity to offset the false positive emotions from things such as the NAM? C'mon man....arguing over model runs is not what I'm out to do, not what I'm sure you are aiming for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Calm and expect the initial rain, just posting my obs. Just hoping we cool down quicker than forecast. Euro does the trick for us thermally. It is colder and colder each run as we get closer. It probably has the best handle on the thermals right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1.70". All snow. Thanks. That's pretty big cutback but I won't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Here's some select areas text sounding qpf and my opinion: 1.71" for LGA. (Maybe .25" is a mix or wet snow) 1.94' for JFK. (75" of it is mix/rain or wet snow) 2.47" for BDR. (All snow) 2.85" for ISP. (About .90" is lost to mix/rain or wet snow) 1.50" for EWR. (Maybe .24" is a mix/rain or wet snow) .68" for ABE. (All snow) 2.39" for BOS. (All snow) .88" for PHL (about .30" or so lost to rain/mix or wet snow) Can you do SMQ please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This storm is currently slightly stronger than modeled. The RAP has the storm at 1006 mB, 2 hours from now. It's already approaching 1004 mB. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Intense deform bands have a lot higher then 10 to 1 ratios. People are forgetting that. A band like Dec. 26, 2010 or Jan. 27, 2011 would have at least 15 or 20 to 1 ratios. Don't look strictly at qpf numbers. and considering a deform band tends to develop on the extreme NW side of a tightly wound system, NNJ to SE NY to SW CT are in a very good spot. could be further NW or SE, but there will be 24" amounts in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thanks. That's pretty big cutback but I won't complain. You will have high ratios all throughout and will be all snow and then sick ratios in the banding. You may end up with more totals with less qpf due to the colder look at 0z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't like this, Temps are climbing fast here up to 34.2 in Queens (was at 31 at 12am) - Already low 40s on the jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Intense deform bands have a lot higher then 10 to 1 ratios. People are forgetting that. A band like Dec. 26, 2010 or Jan. 27, 2011 would have at least 15 or 20 to 1 ratios. Don't look strictly at qpf numbers. and considering a deform band tends to develop on the extreme NW side of a tightly wound system, NNJ to SE NY to SW CT are in a very good spot. could be further NW or SE, but there will be 24" amounts in there. A good point is that jan 27,2011 the model runs I believe had us in around 1" liquid or so and we got heavy banding so I ended up with around 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can you do SMQ please? 1.16". All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 A good point is that jan 27,2011 the model runs I believe had us in around 1" liquid or so and we got heavy banding so I ended up with around 18" As did I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Where is that great thread of storm map images compiled by Sacrus? I love that but can't seem to find it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can you do SMQ please? euro snow maps on weather underground have about 6" snow at SMQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 1.16". All snow. Great, thanks. And with ratios of 12-15:1 in the second half of the storm we could still easily be looking at amounts over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 euro snow maps on weather underground have about 6" snow at SMQ. lol well I'll take the word of the text soundings over that any day. No way SMQ only gets 6'' with 1.16'' QPF all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00Z ECMWF ENS start in 15 minutes. pretty sure they come out at 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Great, thanks. And with ratios of 12-15:1 in the second half of the storm we could still easily be looking at amounts over a foot. middlesex county has about 9 to 10" on wx underground maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What do we think the ratio's with this storm will be. In places that are all snow. 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Most consistent all the way through was the euro....yes I'll give you that. My point was that even the euro would still wobble a bit and adjust AS DID other models with a shift east, be it cutting 4-6" or 5-10" off the total from a previous run. I was simply making the point that I feel a model run like the GFS earlier will be CLOSER to the actual outcome then something obscene like the NAM and when taking a "blend of" models...the NAM shouldn't even be factored in. Kinda like saying "well his IQ is somewhere in between a 50 and a 200"....when you see all these hyped up posts about "NYC EASILY WILL GET 30"! I can't believe this is happening!" Etc etc....that's not just as bad or WORSE than stating facts and comments on model runs, albeit with a bit of negativity to offset the false positive emotions from things such as the NAM? C'mon man....arguing over model runs is not what I'm out to do, not what I'm sure you are aiming for the nam was just model porn, nothing more. some might have tossed some wieners out their kitchen windows but thats about it, and nothing wrong with that either. but the realists knew what the nam was. you dont come across well in your posts. rather than just laying your ideas out, you make it your days goal to be right and prove you know it. the point is not to be right but to discuss and learn, possibly goofing up in the process, but being positive regardless of your position. yet you tend to just hammer the same thing over and over again....so no, im not arguing model runs, im arguing the way you post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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