ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Verbatim, that smells of pingers to me. Notice how the sounding kisses the 00z line for about 100mb. If vvs are through the roof it may be an isothermal snow sounding, but anytime I see those soundings I think some IP mixed. Of course the NAM could be too warm because it's too far west which changes things. Thanks man, after this point temp crash 5-7C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I feel dirty just posting this ScreenHunter_15 Feb. 07 21.35.png Thats unfathomable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The Nam stalls out just like the Euro does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd say reduce NAM by 33% and shift it 25 miles ENE.. Congrats NYC The Idea is likely correct, death band on the Northwest edge If it's wrong all mesoscale models are junk because they all show it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Boxing Day all over again. Get some rest.. You're gonna need it!! Good Luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Again even with the warm NAM from hr 24 till the end was all snow and atleast 1.5 in equivalent from Trenton north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Likely snow with some sleet maybe mixing in. Nearly saturated all the way to 250mb and look at the sfc wind direction, NE, maybe more like NNE. 850mb winds are also north of east. That tells me that temps at that level and below are rapidly cooling. Well the model could be too warm, sure. But, just talking about that exampke verbatim. Usually if that sounding is for real, there are pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Get some rest.. You're gonna need it!! Good Luck!! Storm of the year and I am in florida, and cannot enjoy it. Ah well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd say factoring in all the new data....tonight's GFS should be pretty close to the truth, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'd say reduce NAM by 33% and shift it 25 miles ENE.. Congrats NYC The Idea is likely correct, death band on the Northwest edge If it's wrong all mesoscale models are junk because they all show it!! There's almost always a huge band that sets up over NNJ or ENJ in storms like this-helped by the deformation on the west edge of the heavy precip, higher ratios, and terrain. I expect nothing different this time. I was probably not generous enough for snow up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I'm not a fan of those cutoffs it shows over middlesex and Monmouth. Thank god other models are colder. I actually just posted about those cutoffs on the NAM clown map a page back, was wondering if that is even possible, once again it is the NAM clown map so take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well the model could be too warm, sure. But, just talking about that exampke verbatim. Usually if that sounding is for real, there are pingers. More so though if that warm layer is associated with W or SW flow, a near 0C layer with N-NE or E winds is much more likely to verify cooler than warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Haha, 40"+ for all of Passaic County and Northern Morris County on that map. There you go the typical West Milford Jacpot! Anything over 30" in reality would make me rather nervous about my roof. Now in all seriousness the NAM is most likely well over done with qpf but taken with all other data just more support for a major snowfall. Still wiggle room on final amounts and exact placement of highest totals. Enjoy all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Papa Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The question is: Is this even possible? I'm actually at a loss for words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Storm of the year and I am in florida, and cannot enjoy it. Ah well. lol could possibly be the storm of a life time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Storm of the year and I am in florida, and cannot enjoy it. Ah well. Sorry to hear. I was in Florida for Boxing Day. It sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well the model could be too warm, sure. But, just talking about that exampke verbatim. Usually if that sounding is for real, there are pingers. Not disagreeing there, for sure. Hopefully that's a touch cooler-luckily every other model is cooler than the NAM, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 qpf for NAM at KNYC is 3.55. 850's warm to just below 0. Surface gets as high as 33.6. Thats like 3.0in snow on the nam for KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 These clown maps are running out of colors they are reusing them for a 3rd time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The question is: Is this even possible? I'm actually at a loss for words. Skepticism is healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I know its the NAM clown map, but looking at the snowfall accumulations there looks to be an extremely sharp cutoff in extreme eastern Middlesex Co. portions of Monmouth Co NJ and Richmond NY, does anyone think that is possible? I'm not a fan of those cutoffs it shows over middlesex and Monmouth. Thank god other models are colder. You've got a vertically stacked low of the coast of NJ/SNE with a 1040 mb high in Canada and you are worrying about a cutoff that an inaccurate map shows? Relax, this is a snow nuclear bomb from TTN N&E, perhaps even PHL N& E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Lol Ace telling All snow hes too low on snow amounts. Think thats what is going to make this a historic storm... that comment right there im always on the big ones...go big or go home . Someone in N NJ and SW CT will report 30"+ totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Banding on the hi-res nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well we still have models to go through, so we will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Haha, 40"+ for all of Passaic County and Northern Morris County on that map. There you go the typical West Milford Jacpot! Anything over 30" in reality would make me rather nervous about my roof. Now in all seriousness the NAM is most likely well over done with qpf but taken with all other data just more support for a major snowfall. Still wiggle room on final amounts and exact placement of highest totals. Enjoy all! Haha West Milford seems to get 30" quite easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Look at this data very impressive just a small area of warming for a short period of time. In all my years of forecasting I have never seen a blizzard forecast like this. This can easily be very historic and again the weather just keeps getting more extreme, Station ID: KNYC Lat: 40.78 Long: -73.96 NAM Model Run: 0Z FEB 8, 2013 Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr Sfc Prs(mb): 1024.3 1020.8 1014.9 1007.2 995.1 993.0 997.7 1004.8 1012.5 Mean SLP (mb): 1030.4 1027.0 1020.9 1013.2 1001.2 999.2 1003.9 1011.0 1018.7 2m agl Tmp (F): 28.9 30.0 33.3 33.6 31.5 24.8 20.8 23.2 20.1 2m agl Dewpt(F): 16.8 27.1 32.2 32.4 30.3 23.8 18.5 18.0 13.2 2m agl RH (%): 60 89 96 96 95 96 91 80 74 10m agl Dir: 102 82 84 61 31 343 334 334 336 10m agl Spd(kt): 5 11 13 22 30 23 26 25 19 6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.31 1.32 1.31 0.58 0.01 0.00 AccumPrecip(in): 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.33 1.65 2.96 3.55 3.55 3.55 Sfc CAPE (J/kg): 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.2 11.5 0.9 Sfc CINH (J/kg): -0.2 -0.1 -1.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -0.4 0-3km Hel(J/kg): 242.7 379.0 508.4 672.8 664.1 1286.4 100.2 207.5 105.6 Precip H20 (in): 0.38 0.51 0.62 0.73 0.78 0.52 0.39 0.35 0.15 Lifted Index©: 18.9 16.3 12.7 9.6 8.7 18.2 18.4 15.7 14.3 700mb VV(-ub/s): -0.2 0.6 0.1 2.6 21.8 16.1 2.1 -2.5 -1.5 Thk1000-500mb(m)5339.9 5353.1 5385.2 5414.0 5433.4 5339.8 5272.8 5281.7 5282.3 Thk1000-850mb(m)1272.2 1286.4 1298.1 1302.4 1294.0 1266.0 1254.1 1252.9 1257.6 Thk850-700mb(m):1519.8 1519.1 1522.0 1539.2 1549.3 1510.8 1500.5 1505.8 1514.5 SWEAT Index: 63.2 226.5 251.4 109.8 147.3 151.9 189.9 142.5 162.3 Total Totals Idx 22.9 26.4 34.9 38.7 36.2 22.7 22.4 27.8 30.2 Frz Hgt(ft amsl) 154 154 857 718 154 154 154 154 154 0WetBlbHgt(amsl) -1000 -1000 636 558 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 -1000 Equil Prs (mb): 1024 1021 1015 1007 995 993 998 1005 1012 Equil Hgt(amsl): 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 154 Hail Size(in): 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Conv Wind Gust: 7.0 6.9 23.0 19.7 12.3 10.7 19.2 16.8 15.7 Showalter Index: 19.4 18.2 12.9 10.0 11.4 21.0 21.4 18.4 15.3 Cap Strength©:-999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 -999.9 14.7 11.8 -999.9 Storm Dir (deg): 288 250 230 174 119 62 34 21 14 Storm Spd (kts): 16 17 20 24 28 25 42 37 36 2m HeatIndex(F): 29 30 33 34 32 25 21 23 20 2m WindChill(F): 23 20 23 21 16 9 2 6 4 1000mb GPH (m): 238 212 166 105 8 -8 30 86 145 950mb GPH (m): 643 620 577 516 417 395 429 485 542 950mb Temp ©: -5.7 -2.9 -1.0 -1.5 -2.5 -6.5 -9.5 -9.6 -10.2 950mb Dewpt©: -12.0 -4.2 -1.0 -1.6 -2.8 -7.4 -10.8 -11.6 -13.1 950mb RH (%): 61 91 100 99 98 94 90 86 79 950mb Dir: 121 115 109 76 42 355 339 337 341 950mb Speed(kt): 14 25 32 43 54 38 43 38 34 900mb GPH (m): 1064 1048 1008 948 846 815 845 900 958 900mb Temp ©: -7.3 -3.1 -1.1 1.3 -2.2 -8.9 -11.0 -11.7 -9.6 900mb Dewpt©: -19.7 -4.1 -1.1 1.3 -2.8 -9.7 -12.4 -13.9 -15.8 900mb RH (%): 37 93 100 99 96 93 89 84 61 900mb Dir: 163 162 142 106 61 17 356 348 357 900mb Speed(kt): 11 25 35 47 70 51 59 50 49 850mb GPH (m): 1510 1499 1464 1408 1302 1258 1285 1339 1402 850mb Temp ©: -6.3 -5.6 -2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -8.3 -9.7 -9.5 -6.9 850mb Dewpt©: -14.0 -9.3 -2.5 -0.3 -0.6 -9.1 -10.7 -12.0 -16.4 850mb RH (%): 55 75 100 100 100 95 93 82 47 850mb Dir: 217 188 170 122 81 42 22 9 355 850mb Speed(kt): 13 24 31 40 65 65 69 47 52 800mb GPH (m): 1985 1974 1942 1891 1787 1729 1753 1810 1876 800mb Temp ©: -4.9 -5.2 -5.6 -1.7 -0.1 -8.2 -9.1 -7.3 -5.7 800mb Dewpt©: -22.7 -9.5 -8.4 -1.7 -0.1 -8.9 -10.1 -10.4 -21.5 800mb RH (%): 24 71 81 100 100 95 92 79 28 800mb Dir: 245 224 169 132 96 60 23 354 356 800mb Speed(kt): 17 20 21 31 49 65 65 50 53 750mb GPH (m): 2492 2479 2447 2403 2303 2231 2254 2311 2381 750mb Temp ©: -5.7 -6.2 -6.2 -3.7 -1.3 -7.0 -8.9 -8.4 -6.6 750mb Dewpt©: -10.7 -10.9 -13.1 -4.1 -1.3 -7.3 -9.9 -11.8 -25.5 750mb RH (%): 68 70 58 97 100 97 92 77 21 750mb Dir: 260 229 183 143 105 75 7 356 351 750mb Speed(kt): 22 19 10 26 39 39 66 59 49 700mb GPH (m): 3029 3018 2986 2947 2851 2769 2785 2845 2917 700mb Temp ©: -8.7 -8.2 -6.9 -5.5 -3.5 -7.6 -11.8 -9.9 -9.7 700mb Dewpt©: -10.5 -10.1 -9.2 -6.0 -3.5 -7.7 -13.2 -13.9 -29.7 700mb RH (%): 87 86 84 96 100 99 90 73 18 700mb Dir: 274 226 229 170 117 72 360 0 348 700mb Speed(kt): 24 17 9 27 29 15 65 60 48 650mb GPH (m): 3601 3589 3562 3526 3435 3344 3348 3413 3484 650mb Temp ©: -11.3 -11.2 -9.5 -8.5 -6.2 -9.6 -16.3 -13.3 -13.4 650mb Dewpt©: -13.0 -12.9 -10.7 -9.4 -6.2 -9.9 -18.0 -17.2 -35.5 650mb RH (%): 87 87 91 93 100 98 87 72 14 650mb Dir: 274 242 248 174 129 348 2 355 343 650mb Speed(kt): 28 18 19 23 25 10 67 60 50 600mb GPH (m): 4212 4200 4177 4142 4057 3959 3947 4018 4088 600mb Temp ©: -13.8 -14.3 -12.3 -11.6 -9.6 -12.4 -17.7 -16.4 -17.5 600mb Dewpt©: -15.4 -15.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.7 -12.9 -19.6 -20.3 -37.9 600mb RH (%): 87 88 90 92 99 97 85 72 16 600mb Dir: 273 254 240 192 137 351 355 352 338 600mb Speed(kt): 32 21 32 28 20 19 58 58 54 550mb GPH (m): 4869 4856 4838 4805 4724 4619 4597 4668 4733 550mb Temp ©: -17.2 -17.2 -15.6 -15.0 -13.7 -15.6 -18.9 -19.9 -21.9 550mb Dewpt©: -19.7 -20.5 -17.1 -16.3 -14.1 -16.2 -20.9 -24.2 -42.3 550mb RH (%): 82 76 88 90 97 95 84 69 15 550mb Dir: 269 256 241 211 137 6 357 346 335 550mb Speed(kt): 37 27 41 30 19 22 57 53 56 500mb GPH (m): 5577 5565 5551 5519 5442 5332 5303 5368 5427 500mb Temp ©: -21.6 -20.7 -19.9 -19.6 -18.7 -20.0 -21.4 -24.7 -26.7 500mb Dewpt©: -24.7 -28.2 -21.8 -21.4 -19.5 -21.4 -23.6 -29.5 -46.5 500mb RH (%): 77 52 85 86 93 89 83 65 15 500mb Dir: 264 259 242 221 141 20 11 338 331 500mb Speed(kt): 38 35 47 30 18 22 52 49 59 450mb GPH (m): 6345 6338 6324 6294 6219 6105 6073 6126 6179 450mb Temp ©: -27.0 -25.1 -25.9 -25.1 -23.9 -25.4 -26.1 -29.6 -32.2 450mb Dewpt©: -30.9 -35.9 -28.2 -27.2 -25.1 -27.6 -28.4 -34.1 -50.0 450mb RH (%): 70 37 81 83 90 82 81 66 17 450mb Dir: 264 259 240 214 149 34 21 332 328 450mb Speed(kt): 39 43 48 34 18 20 39 41 61 400mb GPH (m): 7183 7183 7166 7138 7067 6948 6914 6957 6998 400mb Temp ©: -33.3 -31.5 -32.4 -31.0 -30.3 -31.5 -32.3 -35.4 -38.2 400mb Dewpt©: -38.7 -38.1 -35.3 -33.4 -31.4 -34.6 -35.2 -38.9 -53.8 400mb RH (%): 60 53 76 80 90 74 76 71 19 400mb Dir: 264 256 238 205 151 60 29 326 325 400mb Speed(kt): 47 51 49 46 20 18 32 32 64 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Kaner587 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 banding on the hi-res name is insane. That would be thundersnow and 4in/hr under that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 BTW, look at the H5 vorticity in the area near NYC at 00z. Now look west. Winds in the mid levels coming from the east while winds over ern PA and near PHL coming from the WSW. There is your frontogenesis. So, I could buy a band...but where it sets up is the question. If it set up there you could enhance it from Orographic lifting also. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mrx/research/mar26snow/mar26snow.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 im always on the big ones...go big or go home . Someone in N NJ and SW CT will report 30"+ totals... ace, could be the biggest ever for some locations, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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