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Feb 8-9th Blizzard Thread


dryslot

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We have four flakes of snow here in Bennington as of noon.

 

I think this storm will bust big time for western parts of New England. I'll be surprised if we get more than 6".

 

Never fails. Whenever we're supposed to get a big storm, we get sleet. And whenever a storm has a chance of hugging the coast, it goes over the benchmark and we get fringed.

 

Oh well.. enjoy your snow, easterners. :)

Of your 20 posts, 90% have complained about how screwed you get in snow. Meanwhile, most have half your climo and totals. Give it a rest bub.

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My hope is as the storm bombs it slows faster than some of the latest guidance shows.  We keep discounting the NAM, at some point it should get this right...12 hours seems to be it's sweet spot :)

 

The RUC seems very reasonable to me.  Rap whatever its called now.  Not focusing on QPF, just the overall track.

 

Well I THINK an earlier phase would mean an earlier stall right?  I don't really know what I'm looking for (someone else can explain wonderfully I'm sure) but it looks like it is starting to phase on that mesoanalysis?  Not sure, I'd love to see some met input.

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Oh gosh, good question. I am not a local expert on the terrain, nor do I have a well defined climatology in my head like ORH and many others here regarding SNE. I just love tracking these. That said, I am impressed with what I am seeing thus far this morning. Only negative is it may be deepening too rapidly and stalling just a tad as convection wraps ahead of the upper level PV anomaly. That may tend to slow this down a tad. The heavy dump comes as convective cells initiating along the occlusion/trough axis and wrap into the WCB/deform band. Unfortunately that is over water. The positive is the stretching deformation/upper level frontogenesis that will occur later over SNE may be epic, and the NAM may not be too far off once the phase completes. In fact, the NAM is simulating one of the most hellacious episodes of upper level frontogenesis I have ever seen...so much so it is actually forming upper level PV as large amounts of LH is released aloft above the front. Can't say I have ever even seen such a thing. NAM is too wet though, way too wet. Not realistic to have the same precip over SNE as there currently is over the Gulf Stream. Even with dendritic growth, hard to survive in high ratios when 70 MPH northeasterly winds are ripping them apart. There is an outside shot at 30" if both the decaying convective comma head and then the upper level frontal band manage to stall over the same region similar to the NAM depiction. And believe it or not, there is reason to believe the NAM is not completely off its rocker like most think. But the stars need to align. I am definitely not afraid of an east track at this point, though.

 

 

Good description. This is the best setup I've seen in a long time for a chunk of SNE...particularly eastern half. Prob since January 2005. I think there will be a lot of 24"+ totals and def some totals that approach or crack 30" wherever the stars align for some location.

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Thanks BI

 

you know i'm not sure if i mentioned this yesterday but it was when i was asking ryan what is caution flags were, that i was thinking i have seen numerous times  models TO SLOW wrt  strength/ deeping of a surface low esp one that is phasing.   i was concerned the storm may max out a bit further SW of where it's prog'd .

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Models have it generally around 18-21z.

 

Seems to have already started on visual observation.

 

12z UK QPF higher for ENY and WNE.

 

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At least one thing has trended in a friendly manner. :)

 

While I think it's taking on more eastern movement, the overall movement is painstakingly slow.

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Seems to have already started on visual observation.

 

 

At least one thing has trended in a friendly manner. :)

 

While I think it's taking on more eastern movement, the overall movement is painstakingly slow.

Really?  You see an E movement?  It's still got a mostly northern component IMO with some east movement.  Unless that's what you meant lol

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