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Snow threats for the mountains.


Met1985

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Hi Tony.

 

I've only been in the states for maybe 6 weeks since summer. Somehow Pam has confused the meaning of the term  "early retirement" with "personal assistant". 

 

No triple digits this year but 68 is around average. Not real sure of the accuracy either. The house sitter and security helped me out when I was gone.  

Glad to have you back!!  So you've been visiting all the fashion houses, and not in Tahiti.  Well, it doesn't sound like you missed much with a mere 70 or so inches, lol.  And I might have spoken too soon.  April looks like it could deliver to you too.  T

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According to GSP, we got one more shot of winter tomorrow afternoon...

 

 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT AREAS OF NCBECOME QUITE INTERESTING IN RESPONSE TO THIS COOLING. IN FACT...THE KTNB BUFR SOUNDING (ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS) IS DOWNRIGHT COLD...WELL BELOW FREEZING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. I/M RATHER LEERY OF THIS CONSIDERING THE NON-CLASSICAL NATURE OF THE CAD AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ALBEIT VERY DRY...IS NOT THAT COLD. NEVERTHELESS...SIGNALS ARE BECMG QUITE STRONG IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A TRANSIENT PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX IS LIKELY ALONG THE EASTERN ESCARPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-40... SO A MIX OF MAINLY SNOW/SLEET HAS BEEN INTRODUCED. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO RAIN IS FORECAST AS UPSLOPE COOLING SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCK NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS IN PLACE. THEREFORE...ANY ACCUMS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AND A HWOMENTION SHOULD SUFFICE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AS MUCH AS 25 DEGREES BELOWNORMAL TOMORROW
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euro still showing one heck of a cold shot the end of this week with still a possibility of some upslope snow. Also the Euro has been showing a system getting organized and shooting down into NC at the end of the run and bringing some cold air with it. I now it is ten days out but I have witnessed thundersnow as late as April 29th before.

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6Z GFS showing a brief shot of snow for the mtns saturday morning and in the 9-day range a more enhanced snow for next Wednesday night/Thursday

 

 

I know Birmingham NWS was saying lows in the 30's this weekend for north Alabama

Ya guys and some good news if you like cooler than average weather and possibly some mountain snow is the Euro weeklies are painting cooler than average in the Southeast right through the begining of May! Great news for the mountains!

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6Z GFS showing a brief shot of snow for the mtns saturday morning and in the 9-day range a more enhanced snow for next Wednesday night/Thursday

 

FYI-from 20 miles away-I did see what appeared to be some snow or rime ice on the very top of Clingman's Dome(6600' elevation) Saturday morning.

 

Based on this report from the Mt Leconte Lodge-it was probably rime ice/frost. The temperature was in the upper teens causing a flash freeze of the rain that had fallen the day before. Parts of the Blue Ridge parkway South of Asheville were a sheet of ice part of Saturday.

 

http://www.highonleconte.com/1/post/2013/04/april-22-2013.html

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Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
considerable questions remain with respect to the evolution of
weather features with the extended periods...especially the later
periods. The big question...as has been the case for days now...is
the development/movement/position of a potential closed upper low.
European model (ecmwf)/GFS continue to cover the entire spectrum with respect to
the details. Thus...there is little to no reliability or
confidence in the extended forecast...especially the later
periods. At the beginning of the extended periods...Tue-
Wednesday...still dealing with a lingering wedge across the eastern
sections. Given the persistent pattern this past winter and Spring
so far...have leaned heavily toward the European model (ecmwf) which is much slower
to erode The Wedge. Better precipitation chances with both the GFS/European model (ecmwf)
shift south and east of the County Warning Area early...with precipitation trending toward
a more diurnal pattern focusing along the mountains in areas of
better differential heating. Temperatures should slowly warm
toward more seasonal levels...but likely will remain just below
normal through the New River valley...Shenandoah Valley...and
Greenbrier valley. During the final days of the extended...namely
Thu-Fri...have gone nearly entirely with the 00z/12z European model (ecmwf)
solution and completely ignored the GFS solution of a very deep
closed low through the southern ablutions with attendant heavy
rain followed by snow and ridiculously cold temperatures for
early may.
The European model (ecmwf) offers a much more plausible forecast from
all aspects...qpf...pops...and temperatures. A cold front on the forward
flank of any low pressure area across the upper mid-west/Ohio Valley
may begin to approach the area by Sat with increasing chances of
rain showers/thunderstorms and rain at that time.

 

 

  Interesting weather pattern showing up on one of the models (GFS) for next weekend. Talking about this in the 6pm Wx report.

Friday evening, May 4-Sunday May 6th....a low moving up the east coast at the same time a pocket of very cold air aloft over the TN Valley into our Mtns. This reminds of the pattern we had back in early May 1992 which produced 57" of snow on Mt. Pisgah. Areas below 3500 feet had rain, areas above had wet snow. While the city of Asheville had rain, the mountain peaks had heavy snow. Currently the model suggest freezing levels down to ~3000 feet under this cold core of air aloft. Time will tell if this verifies. I will be watching it.

417809_575676689132046_1817219078_n.jpg

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Hey I have seen snow in May in the mountains!

 

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

430 PM EDT UPDATE...BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS THE LOWER NC PIEDMONT AND

UPSTATE TO ACCOUNT FOR REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED

WITH TRAVERSING UPPER S/W. THE MELTING LAYER IS AROUND 6.5 KFT...SO

A BRIGHT BANDING IS INDICATED ON THE DUAL POL IN RELATION TO GRAUPEL

AND MELTING SNOW. DONT ANTICIPATE VERY TALL OR LONG LIVED CELLS IN

THIS ENVIRONMENT. HOURLY TEMPS HAVE BEEN ADJ DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES

MAINLY ACROSS THE UPSTATE AS THE THICK MULTI/LAYERED CLOUDS AND

PRECIP DRAG HAS KEPT THINGS COOLER THAN FCST/D.    

 

I wonder if Mt Mitchel saw any snow today at 6684 ft. Last I checked it was 39 degrees.

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