Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 How much different can the euro and gfs be. it's funny...their solutions have sort of swapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Wow, I'm surprise at how deep the trough is on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 it's funny...their solutions have sort of swapped. Yeah right? Remember the euro cutter 2/5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah right? Remember the euro cutter 2/5? yeah it's an interesting reversal. makes it tough to jump on any particular solution as the consistency has been lacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the 12z euro? no it doesn't. i don't even know if it has anything more than a "T" of precip over most of SNE. it's maybe 1-3 or 2-4 (if you're really optimistic) out hereAgain if you are focused on qpf then no it doesn't. Again look deeper. The amplitude of the Euro trough signifies a much stronger hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Again if you are focused on qpf then no it doesn't. Again look deeper. The amplitude of the Euro trough signifies a much stronger hit. Ok Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Again if you are focused on qpf then no it doesn't. Again look deeper. The amplitude of the Euro trough signifies a much stronger hit. well i don't focus solely on QPF but i do take it into account. and often times, when models show none...call me crazy...but i consider that a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ok Noyes.Ok you're right no snow. Partly sunny for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ok you're right no snow. Partly sunny for everyone The only way you would get more snow is a sharper s/w and stronger low. That setup would not throw back much snow UNLESS it got stronger? Is that what you are arguing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Ok you're right no snow. Partly sunny for everyone you'll probably get at least get some flurries or something - i doubt it will be sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Very close indeed. Initial s/w on Friday clears the area fast enough allowing for the trailing s/w's to amplify. Timing will still be an issue though. Need that S'ern S/w to slow down/dig S more allowing the N'ern s/w to capture. Looker better than 00z imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Very close indeed. Initial s/w on Friday clears the area fast enough allowing for the trailing s/w's to amplify. Timing will still be an issue though. Need that S'ern S/w to slow down/dig S more allowing the N'ern s/w to capture. Looker better than 00z imo. Meh. Winter of 100 pairs of socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Meh. Winter of 100 pairs of socks. what does that even mean? i've seen you write that on several occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 what does that even mean? i've seen you write that on several occasions. This winter is like being an expectant kid waiting for Christmas Day. Your parents (meteorologists) keep telling you how great a Christmas it can be this year and slowly as the presents assemble themselves under the tree you get more and more excited but can't seem to find a present big enough to be the new bike which is all you really wanted. As each day passes your parents drop more and more hints that things are looking good, that bike is only a few days away. You have visions of the greatest toys, the new bike you wanted and more. You wake up on Christmas Day to find 100 pairs of socks wrapped neatly under the tree and your parents act like they never talked about the bike in the first place. That's this winter. Non-stop talk about promise, 100 pairs of socks under the tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This winter is like being an expectant kid waiting for Christmas Day. Your parents (meteorologists) keep telling you how great a Christmas it can be this year and slowly as the presents assemble themselves under the tree you get more and more excited but can't seem to find a present big enough to be the new bike which is all you really wanted. As each day passes your parents drop more and more hints that things are looking good, that bike is only a few days away. You have visions of the greatest toys, the new bike you wanted and more. You wake up on Christmas Day to find 100 pairs of socks wrapped neatly under the tree and your parents act like they never talked about the bike in the first place. That's this winter. Non-stop talk about promise, 100 pairs of socks under the tree. Happy Hannukkah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larvay Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This winter is like being an expectant kid waiting for Christmas Day. Your parents (meteorologists) keep telling you how great a Christmas it can be this year and slowly as the presents assemble themselves under the tree you get more and more excited but can't seem to find a present big enough to be the new bike which is all you really wanted. As each day passes your parents drop more and more hints that things are looking good, that bike is only a few days away. You have visions of the greatest toys, the new bike you wanted and more. You wake up on Christmas Day to find 100 pairs of socks wrapped neatly under the tree and your parents act like they never talked about the bike in the first place. That's this winter. Non-stop talk about promise, 100 pairs of socks under the tree. Wow, your folks did a number on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This winter is like being an expectant kid waiting for Christmas Day. Your parents (meteorologists) keep telling you how great a Christmas it can be this year and slowly as the presents assemble themselves under the tree you get more and more excited but can't seem to find a present big enough to be the new bike which is all you really wanted. As each day passes your parents drop more and more hints that things are looking good, that bike is only a few days away. You have visions of the greatest toys, the new bike you wanted and more. You wake up on Christmas Day to find 100 pairs of socks wrapped neatly under the tree and your parents act like they never talked about the bike in the first place. That's this winter. Non-stop talk about promise, 100 pairs of socks under the tree. ah. well that would work as a good analogy if meteorologists could actually control the weather and santa actually brought the presents. there hasn't been anything exciting - no disagreement from me on that front. but by the same token there's only so much that can be said / pointed out about the pattern. and of course, sarcasm about sensible weather sucking doesn't make it suck less going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Meh. Winter of 100 pairs of socks. Would you rather us not discuss anything? Just shut the forum off? There is upside and downside to all threats. I see both with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Happy Hannukkah? Lol Kev, and Festivas too. Wow, your folks did a number on you. Definitely because that was a clear expression of personal frustration and not a poor attempt at relating the disappointment many have expressed this winter in simplistic terms. Phil, I agree 2/3 isn't far off from a decent event. But most haven't been all that far off from being something much better. Hopefully one or more pops out of this first series of three lows. Here's to hoping we can connect on one over the next 7 days. Bob, no by all means this is what we do. it's just be nice to see one finally break our way as we approach in a significant manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 This winter is like being an expectant kid waiting for Christmas Day. Your parents (meteorologists) keep telling you how great a Christmas it can be this year and slowly as the presents assemble themselves under the tree you get more and more excited but can't seem to find a present big enough to be the new bike which is all you really wanted. As each day passes your parents drop more and more hints that things are looking good, that bike is only a few days away. You have visions of the greatest toys, the new bike you wanted and more. You wake up on Christmas Day to find 100 pairs of socks wrapped neatly under the tree and your parents act like they never talked about the bike in the first place. That's this winter. Non-stop talk about promise, 100 pairs of socks under the tree. Tip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Tip? Did he get a lot of socks for the holidays too? Tauntons take: FRI...ALL MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROF PASSAGE ON FRI. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT SHARPNESS OF THE TROF SUGGESTS MENTION OF SCT FLURRIES. SAT...LOOKS DRY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. SUN...SHORT WAVE TROF WITH BAGGINESS IN SFC PRES FIELD DEPICTED BY MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS A TAD MORE QPF...THE ECMWF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SHARPER SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A NEGATIVE TILT HINT. PUT POPS AT 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF AREA FOR SUN. MON-TUE...MON LOOKS DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF AND SFC CLIPPER LOW PASSES THRU WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. GFS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH THIS LOW CENTER COMPARED WITH THE ONE ON SUN BUT TOO FAR OUT FOR MUCH CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs finally gave up on the 2/1 nonesense. Lol...what a disaster they have been this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I like socks...kneehighs...i have heart socks, and Christmas tree socks, and skull socks, and bear socks, and snowflake socks, and pot-o-gold socks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 SREFs finally gave up on the 2/1 nonesense. Lol...what a disaster they have been this season. Similar to the NAM, usually around ~48hr out they tend to drastically improve as a whole, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Similar to the NAM, usually around ~48hr out they tend to drastically improve as a whole, no? They seem to be completely useless this winter at any hour. They've busted hardcore inside of 18 hours this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What say the 12z Euro Ensm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 They seem to be completely useless this winter at any hour. They've busted hardcore inside of 18 hours this month. Yeah, they've been poor. One thing is for sure, lots of model reliance/modelology going on this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What say the 12z Euro Ensm? Can't see qpf, but the mean sfc features look pretty good actually for 2/3. Actually not bad for 2/5 either...but thats getting a bit ahead of ourselves. 2/3 could still be a solid advisory event if it goes right...but certainly its room for amolification is a bit limited and could easily end up as another 1" or less event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Can't see qpf, but the mean sfc features look pretty good actually for 2/3. Actually not bad for 2/5 either...but thats getting a bit ahead of ourselves. 2/3 could still be a solid advisory event if it goes right...but certainly its room for amolification is a bit limited and could easily end up as another 1" or less event. Ens mean QPF is better for ENE. 0.10" line runs from about BGR-DAW-ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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