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2013 Mid-Atlantic Severe General Discussion

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Please note that I am discussing STRONG TO SEVERE winds, not just widespread severe. I would think gusts to 40-50+ mph are a good bet with the frontal passage so long as there's no major timing issues.

snow peeps are angry that we're living through our worst snow period in history
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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Check out the sfc-925mb bulk shear really ramps up (50-55kts) over eastern VA as DP's in the 60's surge into the warm sector. 925mb winds are now 75+kts on the 12z GFS (over eastern VA/Delmarva region) and with the chance of any thunderstorm bringing some of those winds to the surface. Maybe we'll see our first tor. warning of the year perhaps? I'm going to remain pessimistic though; It is the Mid Atlantic we are talking about..

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Disc

Disc

Posted
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RNK afternoon AFD also mentions the possibility of damaging winds..

 

 

 

THE SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC AND WIND DRIVEN AND SPC HAS US IN ANOUTLOOK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. ON THE SIDE FAVORINGSEVERE IS THE WIND ENERGY WITH 70+ KNOT LLJ MOVING FROM TN/OH VALLEYWED MORNING TO DELMARVA AT 18Z WED...WITH SECONDARY WIND MAX PUSHINGFROM UPSTATE SC TO ERN VA IN THE AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS TOP OF THECHARTS PER HODOGRAPHS. CONDITIONS INHIBITING SVR ARE WEAK LAPSERATES...LOTS OF CLOUDS/RAIN AND LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.HOWEVER...CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A CASE WHERE SOME OF THESHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT BRING DOWN GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ORMORE...SIMILAR TO SOME OF THE EVENTS WE GET IN LATE FEB-MARCH...WHERE THUNDER IS LIMITED.
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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
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im highly skeptical we'll get 60 degree dewpoints this far north

I would think dews of 55-60+ could/should work into DC. Not to give the models too much credit, but they've been consistent in bringing such dewpoints into the area. Winds are generally going to be out of the south/southwest from now up until then... plenty of time to advect those kind of numbers in.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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If only we had better CAPE... 00z NAM looks threatening Wed evening wind-wise.  SRH through the roof, but I dont think there will be a tor threat

we'll get one of those pencil thin lines without thunder probably.
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HM

HM

Posted
Posted

And here I was thinking the GFS got a little bit better looking for wind transfer (still appreciable moisture advection with less of an inversion). Yesterday, the inversion was pretty strong, especially up my way of course and it still is to some extent this morning (the coastal areas are worse). But today, I could see surface parcels rising with a strong front like this one; however, I hate when the vort max pulls north quickly within the trough and brings in a bit of anticyclonic shear/subsidence. Too many mixed signals it seems (also a slight timing issue with various features) but some wind gusts to near severe limits in convective showers still seems possible for N VA-MD-PA.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX afternoon AFD

 

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAYAFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A LINE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ANDISOLATED T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE INVERSIONAPPEARS THAT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD SEVEREWEATHER...BUT THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST A COUPLE THOUSANDFEET FROM THE SURFACE /50-60KT/. A HEAVIER SHOWER OR T-STORM WILLHAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DRAG THESE WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
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Disc

Disc

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The color tables on sim reflectivity on the weatherbell site are HORRIBLE. Very overexaggerated. 

 

You're right. The reds are only 40-50 dbz. At my first glance I was thinking we were gonna be raked with a mess of storms that were 60+ dbz.  :P Very deceiving.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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You're right. The reds are only 40-50 dbz. At my first glance I was thinking we were gonna be raked with a mess of storms that were 60+ dbz.  :P Very deceiving.

 

I think Ian's pencil thin line call is a good one. We'll probably have a 50mph gust reported somewhere in our area. Tornado probs aren't good at all. Squally weather but nothing too serious seems reasonable. Of course...now that I'v said that the NAM will come in with massive tornado potential and SPC will issue a 30% tomorrow ;) 

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Ian

Ian

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I think Ian's pencil thin line call is a good one. We'll probably have a 50mph gust reported somewhere in our area. Tornado probs aren't good at all. Squally weather but nothing too serious seems reasonable. Of course...now that I'v said that the NAM will come in with massive tornado potential and SPC will issue a 30% tomorrow ;)

It's tricky. If we actually get solidly into the warm sector we might have some potential.. Mainly wind. The inversion is less or even non existent on recent runs up into the DC area.. Which would at least allow some wids to mix down. I could see 30% wind as far north as DC if we max potential tho 15% should cut it. S Va and NC have a bit better odds probably.

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