ict1523 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Anything to get the ground white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I'm still puzzled by people being surprised by this dry run. Just look at the pattern...it was pretty clear that a MECS was not in the cards all week. agree besides out to lunch Euro run that the weenies hugged for life virtually all the runs of the models have either shown a non event or a very minor event. I keep seeing this stuff about time for a trend to keep moving north...no no no...the NAM just now fell in line, it does not mean that suddenly the models are trending...and for that matter the NAM is usally wetter than reality. take your 1-3 and run. The conditions have never been right for this storm, yet people keep hoping some new element is going to come and save this storm and push it north and deliver. Its not happening people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 1-3 inch snow event isn't bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 1-3 inch snow event isn't bad at all On the Euro, you'll be lucky to see 1-3 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does the long-range Euro build any kind of -NAO block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does the long-range Euro build any kind of -NAO block? More of the same old, same old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 On the Euro, you'll be lucky to see 1-3 flakes. Euro hasn't been stellar so I will stay with 1-3 inches ( for now ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lakes cutter to a secs to almost a non event Wow Models are awful and this winter is worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lakes cutter to a secs to almost a non event Wow Models are awful and this winter is worse We went from having the low close to our area to having the low way southeast of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SREF ticked northwest with the preciphttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_060_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SREF ticked northwest with the precip http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=03ℑ=sref/03/sref_namer_060_precip_p24.gif That's actually a big jump from the day's previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Nam is really close.Sim radar looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 not as close as it was 0z though,definitely a "Step back" i think the models waffle between what they showed earlier today and tonight's solutions until the storm happens...these look like typical small changes before any event,but obviously in this situation a small change is gonna be the difference between 1-3 and flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 GFS is dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Rgem is loaded with precip but misses the area. Light snow on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So are the models still showing 1-3 or are we now down to flurries if lucky....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lol it's an inch fuys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Upton going with 1" to possible 2 maxx ..what a waste of cold air this has been...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 D.C might get more than our area. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Funny thing is that after the cold retreats a bit I think we'll get a lakes cutter and rain lol this year's just not for us. It's made me realize just how impossible it is for winter forecasts to verify and at best they are all just educated guesses, like a model run 5,000 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Lakes cutter then back to the freezer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Time to close this thread...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Time to close this thread...lol Reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Reverse psychology Reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Reality. It's a weather board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER BENIGN WINTER WEATHER EVENT FORLATE FRI INT FRI NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFFTHE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF WILL ALLOWSHORT WAVE ENERGY AND THE ASSOC SFC LOW TO TRACK QUICKLY EAST OFTHE AREA FRI NIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RAPIDLYDEEPEN. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCHOF LIQUID...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A 1 TO 2 INCH SNOWFALL..... UPTON MT HOLLYS AFD 2- 3 thru central and southern NJ So its the lower end of the 2- 4 we thought . But this what has ALWAYS been modeled .15- w 20 to 1 ratio `s I dont know what some of you thought this was goin to be and why . It was never modeled to be strong . And you guys jump on here thinking you`re goin to get a severe change model run to model run . THIS IS WHAT IT IS , THIS IS WHAT IT ALWAYS WAS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The GFS hasn't lost the big storm in 7-8 days. Still warm but it tries to track the low up the spine of the apps and we all know how unlikely that it is. Still ends as wrap around snows this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 D.C might get more than our area. Unbelievable. That's because you never want to be in the deep freeze for snow threats. You want to be on the edge of the coldest air like they are, because cold air is dry and suppresses everything. The argument about wasting cold air is false, it's almost never going to snow when it's this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 6Z NAM snow map reminds one of the 2/6/10 disaster for NYC http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamsnow_NE048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 That's because you never want to be in the deep freeze for snow threats. You want to be on the edge of the coldest air like they are, because cold air is dry and suppresses everything. The argument about wasting cold air is false, it's almost never going to snow when it's this cold. If the argument about wasting cold air is false, so is the "it cant snow when its this cold" argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.