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Allsnow

Winter storm threat disc 1/25/13-1/26/13

1,394 posts in this topic

Better to play the conservative route and not make that call right now. Seems equal chances for flurries and moderate snow at this point. 00z runs are still important.

 

1-3" is not moderate.

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The GFS has been trending north with that southern part of the system all day, places like Nashville/Charlotte/Knoxville that looked very wintry on the 06z or 00Z runs last night are less so and this is impacting areas north of the Mason/Dixon line the opposite direction.

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1-3" is not a horrible call. I'd say 1" for most of us, 2" SE portions down the shore of NJ, and eastern LI and New England, with isolated amounts up to 3"....

I also feel that this is less of a "more north = more snow scenario" and more of a "phase is more snow, no phase 1-3" max. I think we are comparing this to a coastal storm coming north where we hope that it reaches certain areas, etc. but in this case, if there is a phase, we WILL get a moderate storm, if it doesn't we will either get 1-3" or nothing

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This is most likely goin to be a 3 to 4 inch snowfall for many . Its very cold aloft and the rest is just goin to be a  timing issue between the 2 streams.  You can see the trend all day with the more robust representation of the  precip field and we are still outside 60 hrs.

 

The models are mainly printing out close to .15 area wide and if I had to pick a side of which way the QPF  would go in the next 24 hrs , I  would bet a slight tick higher . ( closer to .20 ) in the end . With the surface and mid levels  that  cold I think you can tell how I get to 3 - 4 inches ( SREF ) ratio estimates back me up .

Think all will be happy to see it snowing steady for a few hrs  and temps in the teens .

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

344 PM EST WED JAN 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE DELMARVA

LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR

LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT,

THEN INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH

SATURDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION

THIS WEEKEND, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT

LOOKS TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A

COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND IT WILL

BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK LOW LATE TONIGHT. THE CU/SC ACROSS THE AREA

THIS AFTERNOON WILL THIN OUT BY EVENING AND THEN OTHER CLOUDS WELL

TO THE WEST WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. ANY

SNOWFALL WITH THE WEAK LOW WILL BE CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER

THE DELMARVA WITH THE BEST CHC FOR OUR AREA BEING ACROSS SUSSEX CTY

DELAWARE, WE WILL HAVE MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE DELMARVA AREA WITH

SOME LOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BE A INCH (AT MOST). NO ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SINCE IT

IS ABOUT 1/2 OF ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE DELMARVA.

IT WILL REMAIN COLD TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE

DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOSTLY TEENS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL

DIMINISH BY SUNSET...BUT THEN INCREASE AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE (AS THE

LOW DEEPENS TO THE EAST). WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH FOR ANY

WSW FLAGS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL DEEPEN THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE

EAST OF THE AREA BY MORNING...SO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL

BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY...AND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS EARLY

ON...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME COLD WIND CHILL READINGS EARLY ON.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE 20S BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE STRETCH OF RATHER COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND,

HOWEVER THEN A BREAK LOOKS TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A

QUICK MOVING SYSTEM LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BRING AT

LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE FLOW IS COMPRISED OF A POLAR VORTEX THAT

TENDS TO RELAX SOME WITH TIME. AS THIS OCCURS, ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE

ENERGY TOPPING THE RIDGE OUT WEST DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE

NORTHERN PLAINS AND HELPS TO CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE OVERALL FLOW REGIME IS SUPPORTIVE OF PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS. THE

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY HAS BEEN CAUSING ADJUSTMENTS IN

THE MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SETUP A QUICK MOVING AND WEAK

SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. IN

SUPPORT OF THIS IS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE EITHER

NEUTRAL OR POSITIVELY TILTED. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE OF A

CONSENSUS NOW WITH THIS SYSTEM GENERALLY ZIPPING ACROSS THE MID

ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW THEN STRENGTHENS ONCE

OFFSHORE AS IT ENCOUNTERS MORE ENERGY INTERACTION ALONG WITH A MUCH

MORE IMPROVED BAROCLINIC REGION OVER THE OCEAN. A SHOT OF COLD AIR

THEN ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEAK STORM, WITH SOME AIRMASS

MODIFICATION TAKING PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WE USED A MODEL BLEND/CONTINUITY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,

THEN INCORPORATED HPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. HPC USED MOSTLY A BLEND

OF THE ECMWF MEAN/GEFS MEAN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME

TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE BASED ON ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR

NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...A FAIRLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES

IN AND THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT AS WINDS

DECOUPLE. SOME CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE, HOWEVER AS OF NOW

THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY THE HIGH LEVEL VARIETY. WE THEN TURN OUR

ATTENTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE A STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE

REGION, IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK AND A QUICK MOVER. THE OVERALL

PROGRESSIVE FLOW SHOULD TEND TO KEEP THE LARGE SCALE LIFT ON THE

WEAKER SIDE BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE AND MOVES

AWAY. WHILE THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS,

THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS THAT A LIGHT QPF EVENT MOVES ACROSS THE

ENTIRE CWA. THE NAM CONTINUES TO APPEAR TO QUICK AND LIES ON THE

EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD BY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC. SINCE THERE IS NORTHERN AND SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY

INVOLVED, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW TENDS TO KEEP THE LARGE

SCALE LIFT IN CHECK FOR AWHILE. THE GENERAL IDEA OF INCREASING WAA

WILL HELP TO SPREAD OUT AN AREA OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED

MODERATE SNOW. THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY TO START, BUT THE FORECAST

SOUNDINGS OVERALL SUGGEST THAT THE SATURATION OCCURS FAIRLY QUICKLY

DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD LOSE SOME QPF TO EVAPORATION, BUT

THE LIGHT SNOW MAY START FAIRLY QUICKLY THEREAFTER.

WE CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS IS AN OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR MOST OF THE

DURATION AS THE INITIAL WAA HELPS TO TIGHTEN THE THERMAL GRADIENT

ALOFT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT ROBUST ENOUGH TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING GOING. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW THE SNOW

GROWTH REGION EDGING INTO THE LIFT AREA /SATURATION OCCURRING

THROUGH THE DENDRITIC CRYSTAL LAYER/, HOWEVER THIS IS ON THE WEAKER

SIDE. THIS ALL POINTS TO A LOW BANDING POTENTIAL UNTIL ONCE THE

SURFACE LOW IS OFFSHORE AND MOVING AWAY AS IT STRENGTHENS. AT LEAST

ONE CONCERN IS THAT AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE,

DOES THIS CREATE A VOID OR MUCH WEAKER AREA OF LIFT TO ITS NORTHWEST

SIDE. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT FOR NOW IT IS NOT FACTORED IN AS IT

APPEARS THAT A SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE

AREA.

WE SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY

FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. IF

THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HOLDS, POPS CAN BE INCREASED INTO THE

CATEGORICAL RANGE. REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPES, THE AIRMASS LOOKS

PLENTY COLD AND GIVEN THE DRYNESS LEADING UP TO IT WE WILL MAINTAIN

ALL SNOW THROUGHOUT. WHILE THE AIRMASS MOISTENS UP, THE FORECAST

SOUNDINGS ARE STILL RATHER COLD WHICH WOULD TEND TO LEAD TOWARD

HIGHER RATIOS. THE EVENT THAT TOOK PLACE THIS PAST MONDAY EVENING IN

PARTS OF OUR CWA HAD RATHER HIGH RATIOS /ALSO STRONG FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING WITH BANDING/ AND WHILE WE ARE NOT THINKING THEY WILL BE

THIS HIGH FOR THIS EVENT, ABOUT 20 TO 1 IS CERTAINLY DOABLE. SINCE

THERE IS WEAKER FORCING AND A LESS OF A CHC FOR BANDING, THE

SNOWFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. BASED ON THE

QPF CONSENSUS, WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A GENERAL 1-3 INCH SNOWFALL

ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THIS IS NOT A LOT, IT COULD CREATE SOME

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FOR A TIME AS THE AIR AND GROUND IS COLD. WE WILL

CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS SYSTEM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH A COLD AND GUSTY

NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN ITS WAKE. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW

SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE POCONOS DUE TO SOME EASTERN GREAT LAKES

RESPONSE.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS OUR

AREA SUNDAY BEFORE SETTLING TO OUR SOUTH INTO MONDAY. A

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED SUNDAY BEFORE

BACKING MORE TO THE WEST AND EVEN SOUTHWEST MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT

IN AT LEAST SOME WAA OCCURRING AS THE MAIN TROUGH WEAKENS AND ALLOWS

SOME WARMING TO ARRIVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE A

WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVING PRIOR TO THE RIDGE MONDAY WITHIN THE FLOW

AS THE WAA TO THE WEST HELPS TO INCREASE THE THERMAL GRADIENT ALOFT.

THIS WILL ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT. SOME OF THE

GUIDANCE INDICATING A PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. THIS COULD FEATURE A LITTLE

SNOW TO PERHAPS A WINTRY MIX DEPENDING ON THE THERMAL PROFILES. FOR

NOW, WE DID NOT HIT THIS ALL THAT HARD GIVEN THE BULK OF THE ENERGY

LOOKS TO BE FARTHER TO THE WEST AND IT MAY DAMPEN OUT AS IT SHIFTS

EASTWARD.

FOR TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED OFF THE

SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVING ALONG THE

EAST COAST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ENHANCED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS

ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TO OUR

NORTH. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THOUGH MAY REMAIN DRAPED NEARBY AS HIGH

PRESSURE TRAVERSES SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. FOR NOW, KEPT A DRY FORECAST

GOING FOR TUESDAY THEN BROUGHT IN SOME LOW CHC POPS AT NIGHT AS WE

AWAIT FOR THE MAIN COLD FRONT TO GET CLOSER. A SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG

WITH WAA SHOULD RESULT IN MILDER SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY, CONTINUED WAA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR

A MILDER DAY ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MUTED SOME BY SOME SHOWERS

POTENTIALLY ARRIVING. IT APPEARS THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES BY LATE IN

THE DAY. FOR NOW, INCLUDED LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,

KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH

THURSDAY. DAYTIME CU/SC ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL

THIN BEFORE AC/AS CLOUDS ADVANCE FROM THE WEST LATER THIS EVENING.

NW TO W WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS

EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS 040-080 (HIGHER CIGS NORTH) SOME

LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE WELL SOUTH ACROSS SRN DELAWARE.

THURSDAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND GUSTY N TO NW WINDS

EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH

GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY...VFR THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AND

VISIBILITIES SHOULD DEVELOP AS SNOW ARRIVES GENERALLY WEST OF THE

DELAWARE RIVER THROUGH SUNSET.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z

SATURDAY. LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME, ESPECIALLY

EAST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. DESPITE SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE, IT

APPEARS A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW OCCURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE

AREA. THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER FLUFFY GIVEN THE VERY

COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH

GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS,

BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ON MONDAY HOWEVER PROBABLY

TURNING SOUTHERLY.

&&

.MARINE...

THE SCA FLAG WAS LOWERED AT 3 PM FOR THE PAST EVENT. AS LOW PRESSURE

DEEPENS OVER THE WATERS THU...MORE SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A

NEW SCA FLAG WILL BE IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 11Z THU UNTIL 05Z FRI.

CONDITIONS ARE CLOSE TO GALE GUSTS...BUT CONFID IN GALE TOO LOW TO

ISSUE THAT NOW. THERE IS A CHC FOR -SN OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS

OVERNIGHT. THE MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN IN FOR

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH

PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL WEAKEN. A CONTINUED COLD AIR MASS

WITHIN THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE FOR

A TIME DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AT

LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THEREAFTER, THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN

AND SHOULD LOWER THE WINDS. AS A RESULT, WE WILL GO WITH A SMALL

CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS THROUGH 05Z FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS

FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND

FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE OVER THE ATLANTIC

WATERS, WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO FOLLOW. ONCE AGAIN A

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH DEEPER MIXING WILL ALLOW

FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OCCURRING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY

SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE WINDS ABOVE THE

SURFACE, AS THE GFS IS STRONGER AND WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHC OF A

PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS. AS OF NOW, LEANING MORE TOWARD A STRONG

ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT SATURDAY.

THE GRADIENT FLOW THEN DROPS OFF ENOUGH TO ALLOW WINDS TO DROP BACK

BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST

WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...NONE.

NJ...NONE.

DE...NONE.

MD...NONE.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST

THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE

NEAR TERM...O'HARA

SHORT TERM...O'HARA

LONG TERM...GORSE

AVIATION...GORSE/O'HARA

MARINE...GORSE/O'HARA

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1-3 is a good call but most areas probably end up in the lower range of that....whether we can get those higher snow ratios could boost things a bit

 

as for it looking better..not really...its either going to phase or its not so coming a bit northward does not really make much a difference at this point, end result is still the same...take a couple of inches...plowable snow for me to make money that isnt a pain in the ass..perfect totals

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1-3 is a good call but most areas probably end up in the lower range of that....whether we can get those higher snow ratios could boost things a bit

 

as for it looking better..not really...its either going to phase or its not so coming a bit northward does not really make much a difference at this point, end result is still the same...take a couple of inches...plowable snow for me to make money that isnt a pain in the ass..perfect totals

Agreed, the big storm idea is kaput unless huge changes occur. The question now is more if the low can form fast enough and south enough for many of us to get a good swipe as it heads east. I think that's at least a fair possibility.

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Mt Holly thinks 20-1 ratios are possible.

Yes, and they said that the ratios were even higher than that the other night, yet when I talked about 20:1 to 40:1 ratios the other night people were saying I was crazy. Whatever. Anyone know what the ratios were the other night?

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That isn't a bad look. Wish the precipitation maps had updated with the SLP, but that's interesting to see.

I've def seen worse. A couple inches seems likely as of now especially for eastern areas. I haven't look at the individuals. Was there a big spread?

Edit: Actually, I guess they prob aren't out yet

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already explained why this storm will not have the same shot at a higher ratios...yes they may be 15-1..perhaps 20-1 in a few locations but its not going to be 40-1 this time around

Yes, I was not talking about this storm though, I was talking about the one that Mt. Holly already said was higher than 20:1. That is the one I said could be 20-40:1, and apparently it was higher than 20:1.

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already explained why this storm will not have the same shot at a higher ratios...yes they may be 15-1..perhaps 20-1 in a few locations but its not going to be 40-1 this time around

Yea the soundings aren't cold enough at the 700mb level. But from my recollection, the modeled soundings were dead wrong during the last little event. I'm not saying there def will or won't be high ratios, but I think we really won't know til day of.

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Yes, I was not talking about this storm though, I was talking about the one that Mt. Holly already said was higher than 20:1. That is the one I said could be 20-40:1, and apparently it was higher than 20:1.[/quote

Upton did report 50:1 ratios last "storm"

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Yea the soundings aren't cold enough at the 700mb level. But from my recollection, the modeled soundings were dead wrong. I'm not saying there def will be high ratios, but I think we really won't know til day of.

I think NW zones get 20:1, SE zones 10-13:1 and in between about 15:1. How much, if any, precip we get is the bigger question.

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Yes, and they said that the ratios were even higher than that the other night, yet when I talked about 20:1 to 40:1 ratios the other night people were saying I was crazy. Whatever. Anyone know what the ratios were the other night?

 

When you were talking about 20:1 to 40:1 ratios for THIS COMING event, we said you were crazy.  Mt. Holly said ratios of 20:1 were doable, not likely, and specifically mentioned they would be lower than the event on Monday night, which is what some of us have been saying all along.

 

Ratios on Monday night were 30:1 to 50:1.

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That isn't a bad look. Wish the precipitation maps had updated with the SLP, but that's interesting to see.

so close yet so far go to the beach with a pair of binoculars and you will see fishing boats passing by with 6 - 12 inches accumulation on them.....................

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so close yet so far go to the beach with a pair of binoculars and you will see fishing boats passing by with 6 - 12 inches accumulation on them.....................

 

On 2/6/10 that probably would have happened!

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so close yet so far go to the beach with a pair of binoculars and you will see fishing boats passing by with 6 - 12 inches accumulation on them.....................

Let's hope we can get a couple more bumps N and W so we can get a few ticks up in precipitation.

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