Cold Miser Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Def looks like about 10-12" there....which would be consistent with Dec 5-6, 1981 storm. The master speaks. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTSkywarn Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Hi Folks! I think I found the remedy for all of you suffering from snow withdrawl from the latest non-event storms. Check out this link: http://www.snowathome.com I mean, at least you "make it snow" like 6 inches now... lol Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2013 Author Share Posted January 25, 2013 Lol are those socks on his hands, those cloth mittens never kept your hands warm, got wet and that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know Gibbs ends it after Valentines day, but that seems a little early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know Gibbs ends it after Valentines day, but that seems a little early. Weeklies look like they build a monster -NAO for middle February that lingers late into the month. Could provide us with prolonged life even as the PAC breaks down....assuming its accurate of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know Gibbs ends it after Valentines day, but that seems a little early. What happens if the MJO decides to poop the sheets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I love the ebb and flow of Fukishima day in SNE. It builds to a crescendo then relaxes then one person meltdowns and it's a chain reaction. LOL Exactly, Its like an epidemic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What happens if the MJO decides to poop the sheets? It looks like it will be a substantial wave. I'm sure it will weaken a bit at some point or perhaps loop back towards the IO, but as far a what happens....we probably would go back to the base state of this winter which is lower heights out west. However I think this wave means business and should ead towards favorable phases for us. One thing about the MJO is that it's difficult to forecast. One should never be highly confident in a forecast based on the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The early 80s had some great fashion. Your missing the big hair................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know Gibbs ends it after Valentines day, but that seems a little early. I would wait until the drunks pull the rodent out of the stump before making a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 It looks like it will be a substantial wave. I'm sure it will weaken a bit at some point or perhaps loop back towards the IO, but as far a what happens....we probably would go back to the base state of this winter which is lower heights out west. However I think this wave means business and should ead towards favorable phases for us. One thing about the MJO is that it's difficult to forecast. One should never be highly confident in a forecast based on the MJO. Thanks CoastalWx. Always nice to get your expert input on one of those confounding teleconnector's. Let's get Feb to be Fab! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This is what I was referring to earlier, and why I am not concerned about the medium range models. HM from the Philly thread this afternoon: "Thanks for bringing this to the forefront because I gave a pretty stern warning about poor modeling within the day 3-10 range (I think beyond 10 speaks for itself, haha). Times of poor NWP have to do with battling regimes, sudden changes in global AAM and stratospheric/solar disturbances. There is no denying the amazing shift in GLAAM with values approaching winters with strong El Nino conditions in place. The MJO signal is clearly getting muted on the RMMs by the h2 battle but it is clear that the MJO kicked its ass and is propagating east (just slower than what the consensus thought 2 weeks ago). The jet has extended and the remnant h2 westerly over the equatorial region got shifted toward the SH / S. America. There is also no denying a downwelling -u anomaly from the 10-30mb layer to the tropopause over the North Pole. This will reach the troposphere as we start February and it will likely lead to even more blocking than what's being modeled. There is a stronger than normal chance for a significant snowfall Feb 5-10 (yes I know climo says snow is most likely then). The storm being modeled beforehand is certainly possible; but with the PV displacement forecasted then, it is quite possible the "shunt" scenario is the best one. However, with the arrival of the STJ Feb 2-5, we certainly could get rolling in the snow department sooner than I have been saying." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 This is what I was referring to earlier, and why I am not concerned about the medium range models. HM from the Philly thread this afternoon: "Thanks for bringing this to the forefront because I gave a pretty stern warning about poor modeling within the day 3-10 range (I think beyond 10 speaks for itself, haha). Times of poor NWP have to do with battling regimes, sudden changes in global AAM and stratospheric/solar disturbances. There is no denying the amazing shift in GLAAM with values approaching winters with strong El Nino conditions in place. The MJO signal is clearly getting muted on the RMMs by the h2 battle but it is clear that the MJO kicked its ass and is propagating east (just slower than what the consensus thought 2 weeks ago). The jet has extended and the remnant h2 westerly over the equatorial region got shifted toward the SH / S. America. There is also no denying a downwelling -u anomaly from the 10-30mb layer to the tropopause over the North Pole. This will reach the troposphere as we start February and it will likely lead to even more blocking than what's being modeled. There is a stronger than normal chance for a significant snowfall Feb 5-10 (yes I know climo says snow is most likely then). The storm being modeled beforehand is certainly possible; but with the PV displacement forecasted then, it is quite possible the "shunt" scenario is the best one. However, with the arrival of the STJ Feb 2-5, we certainly could get rolling in the snow department sooner than I have been saying." I would counter by asking what will end this drought? Bone dry now and predominantly dry for a year or more. Yes a reaction to prior wet but a major concern going into this winter. We have the cold, snows no where to be found thanks to squish squash my car needs a wash....never do the skies open up... Conditions have been right for a good snow now and 2 big chances shat the bed. Sooner or later or missed opportunities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I would counter by asking what will end this drought? Bone dry now and predominantly dry for a year or more. Yes a reaction to prior wet but a major concern going into this winter. We have the cold, snows no where to be found thanks to squish squash my car needs a wash....never do the skies open up... Conditions have been right for a good snow now and 2 big chances shat the bed. Sooner or later or missed opportunities? Do you ever remember a time Jerry when it was this bad in terms of snow here and really nobody anywhere in the US is cashing in? Everyone is dry. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Setup looks good for 2nd week in Feb. -EPO/-NAO type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Do you ever remember a time Jerry when it was this bad in terms of snow here and really nobody anywhere in the US is cashing in? Everyone is dry. Weird. Dry begets dry? If so maybe we can thank those corn peddling mid-westerners and their drought for all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Setup looks good for 2nd week in Feb. -EPO/-NAO type setup. Yes but just look at your profile name....that is the problem says the fella. Jerry I don't know...but it would be odd to stay dry. A shift in the orientation of the PV would make a big difference, as well as some blocking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Don't care what the Euro shows, I think there's a good shot the post frontal system is the real deal. It won't matter for me, or the CP more than likely, but there should be a post frontal storm. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What a weenie GFS run for CNE and NNE next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What a weenie GFS run for CNE and NNE next week. Yeah tried to limit the torch and dump some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah tried to limit the torch and dump some snow. 1/31 may work out for western and northern New England and who knows maybe even closer to the coast. I think there's going to be the post frontal system. The 3rd/4th keeps popping up, let's hope that's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 1/31 may work out for western and northern New England and who knows maybe even closer to the coast. I think there's going to be the post frontal system. The 3rd/4th keeps popping up, let's hope that's legit. There's also the prefrontal snow and ice too. Let's hope the euro continues to limit the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 There's also the prefrontal snow and ice too. Let's hope the euro continues to limit the torch. See I don't get the fascination with the torch. If its warm for a day or so it's not really mtong snowpack and will have no effect on ice etc. I figure the further north the warmth gets the stronger the first system is and the more dynamic things may be after. The op gfs since December...when it has those systems like on the 3rd......have questions on that one as the split has been equal to misses vs clipper type deals as it approaches. I've liked the post frontal deal just figuring we need something dynamic to help shake this up and a system that's doing some strong n-s with the cold may be just what we need. And yep on the pre frontal, now we really are going back to the 80s when a lot of our snow was warm fronts...the bill Hovey days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I will take the 0z GFS with a side of Euro next week, The pattern going forward looks................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I will take the 0z GFS with a side of Euro next week, The pattern going forward looks................. Need further explanation.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 See I don't get the fascination with the torch. If its warm for a day or so it's not really mtong snowpack and will have no effect on ice etc. I figure the further north the warmth gets the stronger the first system is and the more dynamic things may be after. The op gfs since December...when it has those systems like on the 3rd......have questions on that one as the split has been equal to misses vs clipper type deals as it approaches. I've liked the post frontal deal just figuring we need something dynamic to help shake this up and a system that's doing some strong n-s with the cold may be just what we need. And yep on the pre frontal, now we really are going back to the 80s when a lot of our snow was warm fronts...the bill Hovey days I'd rather just have it be cold an not this stupid mild crap, but that's just me. The post frontal deal may be something, many times they don't work out but if the gfs is right then there is enough energy coming around the backside for this. I'd like to see the ensembles an euro show this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd rather just have it be cold an not this stupid mild crap, but that's just me. The post frontal deal may be something, many times they don't work out but if the gfs is right then there is enough energy coming around the backside for this. I'd like to see the ensembles an euro show this too. Op gfs has often had the right general idea... Somehow. We've had plenty of vortmaxs zipping along through the various s/w troughs...just no ability to get them to congeal into a meaningful system. Hoping this big front can help... Or alternately were seeing the gfs shift towards a much more se solution and instead of a big frontal passage it's actually a lead and follow up system. Either would work. Random thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GEFS still torch us...moreso than the op it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Scott ggem has the trailing system too. A little later but it's there. I think it's the real deal. Gfs has it right on the front, ggem a day behind. Getting a little excited, I think that's the next good potential...1/31 to 2/1 or 2 Some gefs members must have some form of it lots of hang back precip in the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 What a weenie GFS run for CNE and NNE next week. Yeah tried to limit the torch and dump some snow. I will take the 0z GFS with a side of Euro next week, The pattern going forward looks................. Sweeet! Happy to be headed back to Plymouth on Sunday. Heavy heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.