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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III

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Looks like the models from 48 hrs ago were MORE accurate w/r/t this northern stream.  Going to bet that a strip from the High ADK thru Nor. VT gets 12-18 easy.

 

Nice, I checked the web cam as of noontime and it’s closing in on 8” for the event so far at the house – my smaller measurement blocks are getting pretty buried:

 

08FEB13C.jpg

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It's all about where the bands set up, too early to say. I wouldn't be surprised if somewhere up here 50-100 miles north and west of where is anticipated significantly outperforms projections just based on where a rogue band sets up and sits.

 

Agreed, still a little early.

 

And yeah, I sould see a heavy arced band setting up somewhere pretty far to the NW of the storm itself.  Maybe the highlands of western NH--Croyden, Sunapee, New London.  Maybe it'll make it further up this way.

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Event totals: 1.9” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

There was a steady snow falling this at observations time this morning.  The flakes were in that middle size range, topping out around 8 mm in diameter, and the snow was fairly lofty at around 20 to 1 for the snow to water ratio.  I don’t see any notable changes in the BTV advisories map, but we’ve been bumped up another accumulation tier on the projected accumulations map to the 10-14” range:

 

08FEB13A.jpg

 

Looking even better, especially for the Champlain Valley.

 

 

post-6562-0-42992400-1360349338_thumb.pn

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light snow 14.1F   3" so far.  How's the Euro look for us up here?   

 

To quote Dendrite from the model thread:

 

.50" PQI-1V4-MPV

0.75" HUL-BML-RUT

1.00" CYFC-IZG-DDH

1.50" BHB-CON-POU

2.00" PWM-PSM-FIT-CEF-BDR

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Not sure if this should go in here or in the upstate ny forum, but im in lake placid for the weekend, moderate snow, occasionally heavy. Havent measured but its gotta be over 5" at least. Gorgeous winter day.

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Thanks Allenson for finding Brain's post.   Looks like the snow from the southern system is up to about Concord Nh at 2:45pm.  Really curious where the deformation band is going to set up tonight.  I think snow amounts are going to be on the lower side of forecasts except in Maine.  Just my feeling but the deformation band area may do great, just don't know where that will be.

 

Later.....

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7 inches so far here in Peacham.  We left the house at 8:30 to go to Burke Mtn.  There was 3 down at that time and arrived home about half an hour ago to 4 inches more.  There is definitely more snow here than at Burke and down in Lyndon/ St. j.  Its already our biggest snow of the season.

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Maybe 2" here in Hanover so far--real light stuff all day.

 

Wife emailed a few minutes ago and said "about 5 inches" at home so far.

 

And yeah, I'm still not sure we'll get in on the juicy stuff or not. BTV has upped things I see, so time'll tell.

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7 inches so far here in Peacham.  We left the house at 8:30 to go to Burke Mtn.  There was 3 down at that time and arrived home about half an hour ago to 4 inches more.  There is definitely more snow here than at Burke and down in Lyndon/ St. j.  Its already our biggest snow of the season.

Yes, and we are under a winter weather advisory, and could get another foot of snow tonight/tomorrow am. I guess i'll just chalk it up to the NEK folk being hardy and not needing any warning for a mere 1 1/2 foot snowfall ;>...

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6.5" here so far from the primary system. but it's been really light with poor snow growth for the last hour and a half. Looks like I'm in the screw zone between those nice stationary returns in upstate NY and the coastal pushing into NH. I'm just not seeing much overnight from the coastal. I think another inch or two maybe.

 

All is good though...I got my 6", the snowpack is fresh and I'm not stuck at home!

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6.5" here so far from the primary system. but it's been really light with poor snow growth for the last hour and a half. Looks like I'm in the screw zone between those nice stationary returns in upstate NY and the coastal pushing into NH. I'm just not seeing much overnight from the coastal. I think another inch or two maybe.

 

All is good though...I got my 6", the snowpack is fresh and I'm not stuck at home!

I think we'll still get some very back end bands and will still add up some tonight, I'd be surprised if they stay entirely east.

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I think we'll still get some very back end bands and will still add up some tonight, I'd be surprised if they stay entirely east.

I agree. I just don't see how those returns from the adk don't move a little back into VT overnight.

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Gotta be another 4-5 more than that at elevation...

 

Nope... its maybe 2" more at 3,000ft, if that.  I couldn't find much over 10" at the summit and when I got to the base that's when I had the 8.5".

 

These synoptic events don't have that much elevation differences.... its the upslope that tends to do that.

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Great AFD from GYX

FXUS61 KGYX 082059

AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

359 PM EST FRI FEB 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...

HEAVY SNOW WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY

MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES UP THE

EAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN TURN EAST PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN

NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS

SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

***MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIKELY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE TONIGHT

THROUGH SATURDAY***

RAPID CYCLOGENSIS WELL UNDERWAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH

COASTAL LOW PRES DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 990S ATTM. AS NRN STREAM

ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIG SE UNDERNEATH THE POSITION OF SFC

LOW...INTENSE STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE. LOW PRES WILL TRACK

TOWARDS THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK TONIGHT AS THIS INTENSIFICATION

TAKES PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT...WITH

08/12Z GFS BEING SEVERAL MILES E...08/12Z NAM BEING SEVERAL MILES

W...AND THE 08/12Z ECMWF REMAINING A GOOD COMPROMISE. CONSIDERING

HOW STEADY THE ECMWF HAS BEEN...SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM

BASING THE FCST PACKAGE LARGELY IN THIS DIRECTION.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...NEXT SEVERAL HRS...WAA AHEAD OF NRN STREAM

S/WV WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME MODEST FRONTOGENESIS AROUND H7.

THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A PERSISTENT BAND OF ONCL HEAVY SNOW

FROM JUST S OF KAUG TO NEAR KIZG AND INTO CNTRL NH. ALSO PERIODS

OF MODERATE SNOW WILL WORK WWD OFF THE WATER AND INTO COASTAL

SECTIONS IN THE ELY ONSHORE FLOW. THESE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY

PERSISTENT AND PROLONGED AS COASTAL LOW PRES WINDS UP.

TIMING...SNOW IS ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS SRN AREAS ATTM. THIS

WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD N THRU THE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL

OCCUR TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN FROM W TO

E BY SAT AFTERNOON.

QPF...SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS IS PRIMED TO BE FED ATOP THE COLD

AIR VIA STRONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING

CYCLONE. STRONG ELY LLJ TO THE NE OF THE CYCLONE IN ASSOCIATION

WITH THE COLD CONVEYOR WILL ALSO TRANSPORT PLENTY OF ATLANTIC

MOISTURE TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS WILL ALSO IMPINGE ON THE HIGHER

TERRAIN...WITH ELY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT...DOWNSLOPE EVAPORATION.

ECMWF/GEM/SREF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH 1.75 TO 2 INCHES

QPF ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES...DIPPING TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG THE

MTNS. NAM REPRESENTS THE MOIST OUTLIER...WITH 2 INCHES ALL THE WAY

INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN. GFS...WITH ITS MORE ELY SOLUTION WAS CLOSER

TO 1.25 INCHES QPF ALONG THE COAST. WITH HPC/RFC GUIDANCE FAVORING

THE ECMWF/SREF BLEND...USED THOSE GRIDS TO START QPF FCST. THEN

ADDED LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS TO CREATE FINAL GRIDS.

SNOWFALL...ATTM IDEAL SNOW GROWTH IS OCCURRING WITH A NEARLY 200

MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. VERY HIGH RATIO SNOWFALL IS

RESULTING FROM RELATIVELY MEAGER QPF. WITHIN THE H7 FRONTOGENESIS

BAND AND WITH BANDS PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE COAST...SNOW WILL BE

20 OR MORE TO 1 FLUFF AT TIMES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN ADDITIONAL

1 TO 3 INCHES PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

AS COASTAL LOW PRES NEARS THE BENCHMARK...INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL

FORCING TAKES OVER. H8 FRONTOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO PEAK ALONG THE

COAST...WITH ADDITIONAL HELP FROM COASTAL FNT. FARTHER W...H7

BANDING WILL MAXIMIZE JUST TO THE COLD SIDE OF DEFORMATION MAX AT

THAT LVL. THIS FAVORS TWO AREAS OF CONCENTRATED BANDING ACROSS THE

GYX CWFA. EXACTLY WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP WILL PLAY A MAJOR

FACTOR IN DETERMINING FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS. ATTM THERE IS A

GENERALIZED SNOWFALL FCST...WITH AN EMPHASIS WEIGHTED TOWARDS

WHERE WE CURRENTLY THINK THOSE SNOW AMTNS AND BANDING WILL BE

GREATEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COASTAL ZONES...THEN INTERIOR

SECTIONS ON A LINE FROM KEEN...TO KIZG...EWD TO KAUG...BENEFIT

FROM THIS BANDING. WITHIN THE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 3

INCHES PER HR WILL BE PSBL. THESE ARE ALSO THE AREAS MOST LIKELY

TO SEE TWO FEET OR MORE OF SNOW. IN THE MTNS AND NWD...MORE LIKE 8

TO 12 INCHES...WHERE LESS QPF AND DOWNSLOPING EAT INTO TOTALS.

BETWEEN BANDS IN THE INTERIOR...14 TO 20 INCHES WILL STILL BE

PSBL. THUNDERSNOW WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL...WITH LIGHTNING

ALREADY NOTED N OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE

FOR THAT WILL BE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHERE CLOSER PROXIMITY

TO WARM CONVEYOR AND DRY SLOT WILL PROVIDE THE INSTABILITY.

HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE A FLASH AND RUMBLE ACROSS SE

NH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHERN YORK COUNTY.

WINDS...STRONG HIGH TO THE N AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL

TIGHTEN GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL

GRADUALLY RAMP UP AS THIS OCCURS. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE

OUT OF THE NE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LATE TONIGHT INTO

SAT MORNING AS CAA BEGINS TO INCREASE MIXING DEPTHS WILL ALSO

DEEPEN IN TANDEM. THIS MARKS A PERIOD WHEN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS

WILL BE PSBL...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY CURRENT

BLIZZARD WARNINGS. ACROSS THESE AREAS...WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE

LIKELY ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING.

IN THE AFTN SAT STORM BEGINS TO WIND DOWN...AS IT MOVES EWD AND

DOWNSLOPING TAKES OVER. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE WAKE

OF THE LOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING PSBL DUE TO THE

DRY NATURE OF THE SNOWFALL. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATE.

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Snow has picked up quite a bit here in Hanover in the last half-hour or so.

 

Small flakes but the vis is certainly shutting down--getting that white/gray thing obscuring the hills.

 

Should be an interesting ride home--though I will say I actually enjoy driving in the snow.  Four-wheel, some tunes, the roads are quiet both traffic and decibel-wise and all the bloody pot-holes are filled in.  Much easier on the suspension.  True dat.

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Snowed all day but didnt accumulate much. 6" maybe. Got windy at the summit in the afternoon, so impossible to tell how much was up there.

Skiing was terrific today. Really sorry i wasnt in the office.

Hoping it gets nasty later. Im thinking of donning a head lamp and walking in snowshoes on the golf course. Early to rise tomorrow.

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