Wmsptwx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Hoping for something to track....if not I d rather warm and dry than cold and dry lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 These threads and C PA's weather were more active when I made the threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 These threads and C PA's weather were more active when I made the threads. Yea yea.. Hey, the C-PA purple squirrel was found on my watch last winter.. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 SNOW KITTENS, DAMNIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 No return of the Tuesday wave on the 0z GFS but I did notice the 0z NAM had it for what thats worth. Looked like a pretty light snowfall for most of PA and perhaps a bit more moderate along the turnpike. Holy crap the longer range GFS was cold. Hour 288 had the 850mb -20ºC line essentially down to Atlanta with all of PA -25 to -30ºC at 850mb and sub 490 thickness. We'd def be talking the biggest cold shot for us since at least Jan '09 if that were to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 No return of the Tuesday wave on the 0z GFS but I did notice the 0z NAM had it for what thats worth. Looked like a pretty light snowfall for most of PA and perhaps a bit more moderate along the turnpike. Holy crap the longer range GFS was cold. Hour 288 had the 850mb -20ºC line essentially down to Atlanta with all of PA -25 to -30ºC at 850mb and sub 490 thickness. We'd def be talking the biggest cold shot for us since at least Jan '09 if that were to come to fruition. I saw that as well, drops the PV all the way into Michigan! Well even if this doesn't happen per se, with the PV at least centered over the Hudson bay or over eastern Canada into Quebec, at least there will be plenty of NWerly flow to keep things on the below average side for an extended period. The only thing bad about those patterns are the dryness that comes with it. It is clipper season afterall. Side note, if the longer range GFS was to come to fuition, I wouldn't be surprised at a major LE event along with a very below temperature regime like you have stated. Edit: I know this is hour 276, but wow if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 12Z continues to the tune, pop goes the water pipes. Brrrr Vodka cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I hate cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I thought it was supposed to be in the 50's today? high temp today was 41 currently its 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2013 Author Share Posted January 12, 2013 I thought it was supposed to be in the 50's today? high temp today was 41 currently its 38 The central counties are def working their cool air damming magic today. It's 55+ in places like Indiana and Johnstown and in the 60s over in Pittsburgh. I'd imagine if you drove to the top of Rockton Mountain it'd be in the 50s up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The central counties are def working their cool air damming magic today. It's 55+ in places like Indiana and Johnstown and in the 60s over in Pittsburgh. I'd imagine if you drove to the top of Rockton Mountain it'd be in the 50s up there. I made it up to 52.7 for my high today. Sun was out for a while this afternoon. Only back down to 47.2 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The central counties are def working their cool air damming magic today. It's 55+ in places like Indiana and Johnstown and in the 60s over in Pittsburgh. I'd imagine if you drove to the top of Rockton Mountain it'd be in the 50s up there. we were also locked into the fog all day...it never cleared up. well at least i still have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I hate cold and dry. What is wrong with cold and dry? I think a potential arctic outbreak that hasn't happened in years is an interesting meteorological event. We are talking about a near record stratospheric warming event that only happens ever so often. This is a classic McFarland signature for the whole CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 What is wrong with cold and dry? I think a potential arctic outbreak that hasn't happened in years is an interesting meteorological event. We are talking about a near record stratospheric warming event that only happens ever so often. This is a classic McFarland signature for the whole CONUS. Let's bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Let's bring it on. I wanna see record cold! It is times like this I wish I was back in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm not trying to troll, but I just don't understand the love of extreme cold. Heat and humidity are no doubt uncomfortable, but extreme cold to me is painful...literally. 10 degrees and below is just brutal, and as for the whole "layering up" idea...why? All those layers of clothes are restricting and uncomfortable. Life is so much better when you can throw on a t-shirt and a pair of shorts and enjoy the day, indoors or out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Im with you man, I love snow but not a fan of cold. Heating bill doesnt like it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 I'm not trying to troll, but I just don't understand the love of extreme cold. Heat and humidity are no doubt uncomfortable, but extreme cold to me is painful...literally. 10 degrees and below is just brutal, and as for the whole "layering up" idea...why? All those layers of clothes are restricting and uncomfortable. Life is so much better when you can throw on a t-shirt and a pair of shorts and enjoy the day, indoors or out. As someone who has been in 120+ degree weather for a prolonged time period, extreme cold > extreme heat. Ever try to run 2 miles in that kind of weather? You can always put more layers on/build a fire to stay warm. Once you're naked, you're as cool as you're going to get, and then you're subject to sunburn. Heat can be more dangerous, medically, as well. There's a reason that there isn't any working limitation for soldiers when it's cold, but when it's hot, limitations go up to 15 minutes of work per hour, with 45 minutes of rest. Now, if we're talking extreme cold vs average heat, that's a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2013 Author Share Posted January 13, 2013 Lol still in the upper 30s here. The deep central counties east of the Alleghenies just won't relinquish the cool air at the surface. Meanwhile the torch of the century is ongoing in places like Latrobe and Pittsburgh.. who are at a ridiculous 66 and 65 respectively at this hour. Johnstown is even at 57. I suspect the cool air damming will eventually get mixed out this afternoon, and us folks that haven't really seen anything much above 40 or so the last couple days will should at least get in the 50s for this last day before the front finally presses thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Wow, PWS recording 69 in Dormont. Meanwhile, it's a more acceptable 43 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 As someone who has been in 120+ degree weather for a prolonged time period, extreme cold > extreme heat. Ever try to run 2 miles in that kind of weather? Well, I did live in Phoenix for 5 years and know the 120+ temperatures, and I'd still take their heat over our cold any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 We want the extreme cold because, at the core of most of us, we like "extreme weather". This is why we're spending time on a weather forum. I'm not speaking for everybody here, but I'm sure I'm speaking for some when I say that the thought of extreme cold in the winter, when it's not supposed to be 60 degrees, excites us. Even more so if it's possible that we could reach "record" stages. This isn't North Dakota where 10 degrees is considered a "torch" in January, it's Pennsylvania where in the last what, 5-7 years? The teens and zeros have only come out at night? The thought that we could see a 2:00 pm reading of "5" excites some. Just as severe thunderstorms and tornadic activity excite some in the spring, hurricanes in the summer. This is why we're excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Well, I did live in Phoenix for 5 years and know the 120+ temperatures, and I'd still take their heat over our cold any day. you had access to air conditioning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The lack of snowfall will hurt chances of extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 temp 41 im with the guys who dont like the extreme cold... I will take all the snow mother nature can dish out but extreme cold ...I'll pass. now extreme cold with heavy snow and very high ratio's i would be good with (my only exception) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 temp 41 im with the guys who dont like the extreme cold... I will take all the snow mother nature can dish out but extreme cold ...I'll pass. now extreme cold with heavy snow and very high ratio's i would be good with (my only exception) The 3 pm obs, 65 at Dubois, 46 at Clearfield, is crazy. 17 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 43* here at Williamsport fogged in...lol I wanted a torch today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 The 3 pm obs, 65 at Dubois, 46 at Clearfield, is crazy. 17 miles away. high temp for me today 42 & foggy once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 13, 2013 Share Posted January 13, 2013 Worst torch ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2013 Author Share Posted January 14, 2013 Well the good news for the folks that aren't in favor of a big time cold shot is that it looks like this week won't be the week for it. While we certainly will be ending our torch (or muted torch for some) tonight into tomorrow, temps look only seasonable all week as we continue to fight down the southeast ridge. This does make for a couple southern waves that may try to make a run at PA as the frontal boundary stalls out just to the south. Right now it still doesn't look like much, but I wouldn't be surprised if some light event sneaks into at least our southern tier. I'd still watch the Tuesday timeframe. 15z SREFs run some half decent 1+ probs along the MD border counties Tuesday morning. There's also another stronger wave that eventually ejects out late this week as well, currently progged to keep precip under PA but I'd keep tabs on that one too. In the longer range, we seem to evolve into a general NW flow under the influence of a broad eastern trough. Models have differed a bit as usual. The GFS has backed off on bringing the arctic into the backyard the last couple runs, while the Euro has continued to look pretty cold. The CPC GEFS forecast for the NAO has not really had a strong -NAO signal the last couple days.. with todays forecast having members evenly split between +1 and -1.. perhaps with a slight positive majority. The AO remains negative looking but not quite as negative as it had been. Euro and Euro Ens NAO values are forecasted to be positive as well. The PNA is forecast to become positive, and both the GFS and Euro forecast a nice western ridge in their 8-10 day. So with a neutral or positive NAO, the PNA looks to be a big driver of supplying the cold. Big time extreme cold fan or not, I'm sure the big question on everyones mind is "Can we get some snow events?" Attm I don't like the look overall in this timeframe for much southern stream input, as southern disturbances would probably get squashed underneath with the look depicted on that map. We'll probably have to look to the northern stream in the form of clippers to deliver snow events. They're hard to pin down in the longer range, but I would imagine if we were to get a good arctic cold shot.. it's probably going to come in the wake of a good clipper. The Euro has a nice one today at about 198h, which would put a light to moderate snowfall over most of PA and usher in a pretty significant cold shot behind. Way to far out to get on the bandwagon with a particular event, but that looks to be the kind of system to watch for in this longer range pattern as it looks currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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