JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Time to get excited will be 0z tmrw night. Have that feeling of doubt still. What? Wow! Has this ever happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irvingtwosmokes Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What else is new. Lol His Mayan calendar is out of whack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Nam drops 2 to 5 for most on xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hard to measure here but I measured 1.3 here. Last night driving to friends party over the ridge near Stormstown was kind of crazy....They seemed to have a bit more there, a few inches and the roads were a mess from drifting. They said if they get like 6 inches or so with wind, the road leading up is their place is really bad due to no snow fence and a big field to the west. Holy crap, it looks like winter out there. Glad to get our long November over with for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone with thoughts on how it looks here to the east? (Man, I miss being a part of true central already.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lol....can anyone blame me for being skeptical 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lol....can anyone blame me for being skeptical 5 days out We love ya, man. You're like a reliable model that always is bearish. It doesn't matter the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Anyone with thoughts on how it looks here to the east? (Man, I miss being a part of true central already.) AVP on Euro - .33 for the Xmas storm, 1.08 for the day after storm, all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Rut Roh, power flickering several times........... what a difference, last week the weather looked blah, today were looking at the chance of a White Chirstmas and a decent snow right after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 One thing that I will note, and stress for Lancaster, York, Lebanon and Dauphin counties are the ocean temps near the Jersey and Delaware coast. Interesting, I've never heard, or thought of this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS looks like a mess on the second storm. The primary low starts cutting up into OH and we torch. The Christmas storm too contiues to trend north, and p-type issues could become an issue with that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What a kick in the nuts on that 12z GFS run for the Christmas and post Christmas storms. Just when I was getting excited...figures. Hopefully it's a one run hiccup but the problem is both storms have been trending that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Uhooh fellas Gfs is ugly to put it mildly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JB's take on the 25-28th storm. lets hope the new run of the gfs was a hiccup. https://twitter.com/i/#!/BigJoeBastardi/media/slideshow?url=pic.twitter.com%2FR2cTBpYb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If Gfs is right....cut hopes down to wintry mix...maybe plain rain for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 JB's take on the 25-28th storm. lets hope the new run of the gfs was a hiccup. https://twitter.com/...er.com/R2cTBpYb Just about every single storm we've ever had involved a GFS hiccup run. Every single storm had a freakout of some level similar to what I am seeing around the whole board. In the just-as-silly category, we have a freaking snow map already from JB. Man. That's such a bad idea at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It really is man...this thing could be a miss still..a big hit, a sloppy transition low, or a lakes cutter. We dont know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Ah, GooFuS already throwing weenies into panic. Yes, winter is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Just about every single storm we've ever had involved a GFS hiccup run. Every single storm had a freakout of some level similar to what I am seeing around the whole board. In the just-as-silly category, we have a freaking snow map already from JB. Man. That's such a bad idea at this point. im curious to see what the new euro shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM and UK say the GFS is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Really windy here. The lights keep flickering, hope we don't lose power. Today is on track to be windier than sandy. Had a wind run of 97 miles on Oct. 30th, we're already at 89.2 miles. Highest gust recorded here so far (30 mph) also exceeds the highest gust recorded here during Sandy (25 mph). Experiencing periodic flurries as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Really windy here. The lights keep flickering, hope we don't lose power. Today is on track to be windier than sandy. Had a wind run of 97 miles on Oct. 30th, we're already at 89.2 miles. Highest gust recorded here so far (30 mph) also exceeds the highest gust recorded here during Sandy (25 mph). Experiencing periodic flurries as well. what do you mean by this? sorry for my stupidity but i have no clue what your saying here (bolded part)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It really is man...this thing could be a miss still..a big hit, a sloppy transition low, or a lakes cutter. We dont know. Yeah. A map like that now is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looking at the 511 site, looks to be snowing pretty good west of Altoona and around J town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is disaster for both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is disaster for both storms. 2-3" here for Xmas Eve then about .5 of frozen then about .6 or so of rain, maybe ending as snow, not sure. I guess it's GGEM/UK vs. GFS/Euro. Not a good set of 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro now nice rain storm after some snow and ice. Model flip flops for the win. Sure it will be back to a blizzard by tomorrow lol. Stupid models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I will take Gfs Euro combo all day. All snow event looks to be in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what do you mean by this? sorry for my stupidity but i have no clue what your saying here (bolded part)? "A measurement of how much wind has passed a given point in a period of time. A wind blowing at three miles per hour for an entire hour would give a wind run of three miles. Cumulus calculates wind run by noting the average wind speed every minute, and adding in a minute's worth of 'distance' corresponding to that speed. So the wind run for a particular period is effectively an indication of the average wind speed over that period. A wind run of 240 miles over the course of a day, for example, means that the average wind speed over the day was 10 mph." It basically allows one to measure how windy a given period is, at least, that's what I use it for. You can divide wind run by the measurement period and determine average wind speed, including gusts, for said period: Today (so far): 105 miles/ 13.5 hours = 7.8 mph 10/29/2012 (Period which registered Sandy's lowest pressure): 97.4 miles/24 hours = 4.05 mph Mets might have another use, or might not use it at all. I had never heard of it until I started using Cumulus software for my PWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lol it will be blizzard tomorrow....for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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