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December 27/28 Storm Threat


Baroclinic Zone

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Its an Apps runner this run...similar to 00z.

Doesn't mean much other than just about every option is on the table right now. The model consensus has definitely shifted east over the past 24 hours though. Yesterday's 12z Euro was over southwest Michigan at 192 hours...and all ensembles have shifted east.

This doesn't guarantee a big winter storm. Everyone needs to remember that. Its just that some ofthe synoptic features are looking better on guidance...the biggest being the block to the north. The Euro is still the western most solution because it has the block with less influence on the 50/50 feature. It really doesn't hold in the confluence very well.

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He's so worried right now lol. Over nothing

Anything is on the table. The high to the north makes it a lock for many to start as some frozen. The euro continues to develop a ridge ahead of the low that basically connects with the block forcing a more poleward track. It's also very strong with the disturbance crossing the Gulf.

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25 December 2002 and 14 February 2007?

1/12/11 and 10/29/11.

2/14/07 had the axis more E NY up to C/N VT versus curled east...though interior New England still got hammered in the '02 storm even if they didn't jackpot, that one was def more E NY toward C NH. '07 was a sleetfest even up into NH...but it did produce snow too during the latter part of the storm especially.

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Anything is on the table. The high to the north makes it a lock for many to start as some frozen. The euro continues to develop a ridge ahead of the low that basically connects with the block forcing a more poleward track. It's also very strong with the isturbance crossing the Gulf.

We'll take an icestorm if we have to. Even though snow is favored at this point
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I love the Gronk spikes people are doing one way or another.

I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between.

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I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between.

I agree with almost everything.

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I'm not doing a spike one way or the other, I just think when it comes down to it for areas from the Pike south the net result may not be much/any different on this particular storm. If I were a betting man I'd toss the Euro and the OP GFS and go down the middle with a solution similar to the other day. Boston gets into the 50s as does eastern/SE New England, ski country has a messy mix, Maine gets hit pretty hard in the hills. A mess in between.

Ok, that's fair enough...everyone is entitled to their thoughts. Because this setup is different than the others, I don't know if we really furnace like that. Maybe SE areas do...it's just too early to tell, and even the euro ensembles aren't always correct 7 days out. See the Wednesday before Thanksgiving on that. I'm pretty excited from here on out. After being meh for so long, I think we have turned the corner to more threats thanks to climo and natural turn of events regarding the pattern. Stay with a more climo approach, meaning don't expect big things to occur quite yet, and hope to be pleasantly surprised.

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