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dryslot

NNE Winter Thread II

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Should I be happy I am not arriving at Stowe until Saturday and thus the skiing will be ready to roll or be really mad i am missing this thing by a couple of days but would probably be stuck inside for at least tomorrow if i was there?

Its a win anyway because its going to be an awesome week with all of this snow cover and cold air in place...please get us another system for later next week at least 12+.

it'll be all good, no worries. things have a way of snowing up there in a pattern like this.

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Shaved off totals to the south and upped further north.

post-18-0-20803700-1356544049_thumb.png

eek, Where did you pull that map from? I don't dhow that one on the link i have

Edit: Got it they just updated

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Nice! Glad we are getting a storm while your here eyewall. In fact, you should come up more often as last year you also brought the best period of winter up here last February with that massive upslope event.

Very true. I would love to re-locate eventually.

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it'll be all good, no worries. things have a way of snowing up there in a pattern like this.

Yeah we have plenty of chances for surprise fluff days as the pattern looks chilly with lake moisture and some upslope clipper type deals. The upcoming week to me looks like it'll verify snowier than expected for the Greens. All those little 0.01"+ panels can turn into 3-6" of fluff every couple days like we saw this past week.

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I'm pretty stoked on this event for the ADK. I think the high peaks are about to get crushed. 20-30+ above 3000 feet.

For events like this, the valleys in the 'dacks get sheltered badly and record 1/2 the snow the high peaks do. Also, with another 1000 feet of vertical relieve above the greens (or more) the high peaks don't get shadowed very badly on a larger mesoscale.

Honestly- for those traveling up for vacations. You don't want 12 inch storms. With a base down you want quiet snow shower events that fly under the radar and drop an overnight 6 inches of champlain powder. Just pure fluff. 6 inches with .2 inches of water. That's peferct Mansfield conditions.

I was asked about Magic too. They are getting a foot. Gonna be heavier snow with some sleet but that's sorta exactly what you need.

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Yeah we have plenty of chances for surprise fluff days as the pattern looks chilly with lake moisture and some upslope clipper type deals. The upcoming week to me looks like it'll verify snowier than expected for the Greens. All those little 0.01"+ panels can turn into 3-6" of fluff every couple days like we saw this past week.

that is exactly what i needed to hear...may it snow every day

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Yeah we have plenty of chances for surprise fluff days as the pattern looks chilly with lake moisture and some upslope clipper type deals. The upcoming week to me looks like it'll verify snowier than expected for the Greens. All those little 0.01"+ panels can turn into 3-6" of fluff every couple days like we saw this past week.

heard mention of zonal pattern around jan 5th possible. which if it were to play out like that, isn't terrible, though being on the right side of the flow helps. we'll see- heard no mention of it except from MRG'S josh fox a few days ago.

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Good luck to all my NNE'ers. I like GYX's map. Very reasonable with adequate shadowing/enhancement.

Going 10-14" most of VT, 8-10" St J/Littleton, jackpot whites to foothills of ME with 14-18".

Take pics guys.

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Good luck to all my NNE'ers. I like GYX's map. Very reasonable with adequate shadowing/enhancement.

Going 10-14" most of VT, 8-10" St J/Littleton, jackpot whites to foothills of ME with 14-18".

Take pics guys.

Sorted thru most of the zones in GYX's CWA. All zones not touching saltwater are 12-16" or 12-18" except one. Zone 12, S.Oxford Cty, is the jackpot with 18-24" forecast. IZG to RUM, kaboom!

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Sorted thru most of the zones in GYX's CWA. All zones not touching saltwater are 12-16" or 12-18" except one. Zone 12, S.Oxford Cty, is the jackpot with 18-24" forecast. IZG to RUM, kaboom!

That was the target area i had for 20" this am

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BTV says around 16" for Williston. That would be awesome if true (10-18 in the non graphical forecast). We shall see. Video camera is ready to go.

I'm pretty excited for this storm, but totally pumped for our visitor from the South! Enjoy eyewall! Christmas week dumps are pretty rare in my experience so you are lucky.

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GYX bumps it up along the Maine Coast... figured the colder air looks to win out a little more. I am still confident that if you are North and East of Portland along the coast mixing will only be with wintery types. If you live right on the shore you may see rain. Also downeast Maine is the other location to see mixing with rain b/c of the track and front placement. From Portland to Rockland along the coast about a mile inland expect to see 6-10" of wet heavy snow. That's what I have been thinking this whole time. I think the models have had a hard time nailing some things down because of the amount of convection yesterday and today at the time of model initiation.

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Skiing Bretton Woods tomorrow, wish I was skiing somewhere a bit steeper but they have some decent trees that I'll hang out in... They always clean up in these type storms. Should be fun to be on the slopes anywhere tomorrow!

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What an awesome zone forecast....

Tonight

Snow...mainly after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Thursday

Snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Additional snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the morning...becoming light and variable. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Thursday Night

Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 18. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Friday

Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

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What an awesome zone forecast....

Tonight

Snow...mainly after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Lows around 16. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Thursday

Snow. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Additional snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. North winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the morning...becoming light and variable. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Thursday Night

Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 18. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Friday

Snow likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 20s. North winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

that forecast equates to nhc bringing a cat 1-2 to my part of the world...this is like gold for my trip on friday

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Meteorologist in Charge at BTV A. Nash absolutely killed this AFD (in a good way):

Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Burlington Vermont 346 PM EST Wednesday Dec 26 2012 Synopsis... a potent winter storm will impact the entire region tonight through Thursday night producing widespread heavy snows with amounts over a foot. Gusty winds will also occur along the western slopes of the Green Mountains and in the Saint Lawrence valley, and this may cause areas of blowing snow. Snow showers will continue across the northern mountains on Friday as the storm moves away from the region. The weekend will be seasonably cold, with a continued chance of light snow in the mountains. && Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/... as of 325 PM EST Wednesday...currently the quiet before the storm. High/middle clouds rapidly covering the sky and this will be the last we'll see of any sun for a good number of days. Overall the forecast is still on track. 12z guidance offered no big changes, except to boost confidence in the track of the storm and what it will offer to our region. As anticipated, secondary development is occurring across southeast Virginia, and this low will take over and become the primary one. It will track northeast and by daybreak Thursday will be sitting just south of Long Island. The atmosphere will remain cold enough for the p-type to be all snow. Even the warmest model, the NAM, has trended colder, so not anticipating any significant sleet mix. Snow is spreading across the New York/PA border. Keep in mind that the leading edge of the radar returns are virga due to the dry airmass in place. Best estimates of the onset of snowfall is about 8pm in Rutland, 10-11pm for the St Lawrence Valley and southern Champlain valleys, and then by 1am into the Northeast Kingdom. Once the snow starts, it will start to come down rather heavy, so travel conditions will rapidly deteriorate. On the wind aspect, as the low develops a low/middle level easterly jet of 50-60 knots will also develop, mainly after 06z tonight. Although we'll likely see some downsloping winds along the western slope of The Greens (especially Rutland southward), the magnitude and atmospheric stability should preclude the strongest of winds really mixing down low. So though we may have some local gusts approach 40 mph, it shouldn't be enough for Wind Advisory levels. The downsloping along The Greens, and to an extent off the White Mountains into the Northeast Kingdom, will limit the amount of precipitation in those areas -- and this will cut the snowfall amounts as well. && Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Friday night/... as of 325 PM EST Wednesday...gonna be a busy day Thursday. Lots of snow. The storm will track northeast and cut across Cape Cod (or very near it) by late in the afternoon. This puts the north country into a Sweet spot for the heaviest quantitative precipitation forecast. The dry slot just wont get this far north, and as the low moves off to the east, we'll be in the pivot zone into the afternoon. Excellent dynamics and snow growth maxed with upward motion should result in a period of heavy snow most everywhere. Thinking the primary time will be 6am to noon, with rates of 1-2" per hour. Can't rule out localized mesoscale band with even a little bit more. Liquid quantitative precipitation forecast will be quite impressive. Spent a good deal of time trying to account for orographic effects as well. By the time we get to Thursday night, most of US will see on the order of 1 to 1.5" of liquid equivalent. Shadowing will make the number a little lower in the Northeast Kingdom and western slopes of the southern greens, but then that on the flip side, orgraphics will help on the eastern sides of The Greens and dacks. Have increased the snow totals a few inches across the board -- thinking 12 to 17 inches, with the Jackpot locations seeing about 20". Even those who see the least will get about 8", which is not shabby. Winds will continue to be gusty the first half of Thursday along the western slopes. Also have to watch for strong northeast winds funnelling down the St Lawrence Valley. Dont think they'll hit Wind Advisory criteria, but still they'll have sustained winds 15 to 25 miles per hour with higher gusts -- and that will cause a considerable amount of drifting/blowing snow out there. Have added that wording to the forecast. Snow will begin to taper off in the evening, though light snows will continue all night. As the low pushes east of here, winds will clock around to northwest. Moisture will be slow to leave, so the northwest winds and that moisture will result in a good amount of orographics, so the higher terrain will pick up a few additional inches of snow (at least) on Friday. Finally taper probability of precipitation down to chance levels by Friday night, though a weak system approaching from the west may spark a little bit of light snow/flurries. Quick note on temperatures -- primarily kept to the cooler side of guidance for the entire time. && Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/... as of 342 PM EST Wednesday...overall little change from previous couple of forecasts...with blw normal temperatures and precipitation expected for days 4 through 7. The extended forecast challenge will be timing/magnitude of Arctic airmass across our County Warning Area early next weak. Will continue to mention low chance probability of precipitation for late Sat into Sunday associated with middle/upper level trough and some 850 to 500mb relative humidity. Latest trends have been for less relative humidity and quantitative precipitation forecast across our County Warning Area...but European model (ecmwf) is a bit closer to the coast with surface low pressure and enough moisture may move back into our County Warning Area for some light snow. Otherwise...ECMWF/Gem show middle/upper level trough developing across eastern Canada with a mainly dry northwest follow aloft. However...a well defined Arctic boundary will push across our County Warning Area early next week...along with a ribbon of enhanced moisture. This moisture...along with some additional moisture from the Great Lakes will help in producing some snow showers across our County Warning Area on Monday into Tuesday. In addition...much colder temperatures will advect back into our County Warning Area for next weak. Still some uncertainty with regards to timing of this feature...as GFS is 6 to 12 hours slower and shows the coldest temperatures across our County Warning Area on Wednesday. Timing of boundary will make a huge difference in temperatures from near 30f at btv if the GFS is right to lower teens if the European model (ecmwf)/Gem are correct on Tuesday. Given the development of a large scale trough and deep cyclonic follow across the NE Continental U.S....will trend toward the colder European model (ecmwf)/Gem for next week...and mention highs only in the teens/l20s with lows mainly in the single digits/lower teens. If surface high pressure builds into the region...faster than prognosticated...then winds will decrease and overnight lows will need to be adjusted down by 5 to 10 degrees. Its always difficult to determine amount of cold air advection and impacts across our County Warning Area in the day 5 to 7 range. Today is a great example of trying to predict the cold air...as temperatures struggled mainly in the teens. && Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/... through 18z Thursday...a significant winter storm will produce a long duration event of IFR/LIFR conditions at all taf sites through 18z Thursday...with major aviation impacts likely. Surface low redeveloping near Norfolk Virginia will spread deep Atlantic moisture into our taf sites overnight into Thursday. This moisture will interact with cold air to produce a widespread moderate to heavy snow event at all our taf sites. Band of heavy snow with visible <1/2sm will lift from near Rutland around 05z into mpv/slk by 08z...btv/pbg/mss by 10z. Given some warm air aloft...a brief period of sleet will be possible at Rutland between 11-15z Thursday...but no significant freezing rain is anticipated. In addition...gusty southeast to east winds between 20 and 35 knts are likely at Rutland...with northeast winds between 15 and 25 knts at mss. These winds will create areas of blowing/drifting snow...especially on larger/wider runways. Furthermore...areas of low level wind shear will be possible along with turbulence at slk/mpv/btv...where mixing will be limited. IFR with periods of LIFR ceilings/visible will prevail between 12-18z Thursday...with MVFR ceilings possible at rut after 15z. Outlook 18z Thursday through Monday... as surface low pressure lifts into the Gulf of Maine...winds will becm north to northwest with periods of snow and IFR/LIFR conditions prevailing through 06z Friday. A slow improving trend is anticipated by 12z Friday with northwest winds between 10 and 20 knts...with some blowing and drifting snow possible...especially at btv/rut/pbg/mpv. 00z Saturday through 00z Sunday...surface high pressure slowly builds into our taf sites by 12z Saturday. Some leftover mountain snow showers at mpv/slk will create occasional MVFR conditions through 06z Sat...before dissipating with VFR conditions developing after 06z Saturday. 00z Sunday through Monday...mainly VFR conditions with a chance of MVFR snow showers across central and southern areas Saturday night as low pressure moves east across the Middle-Atlantic States. && Btv watches/warnings/advisories... Vermont...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST Friday for vtz001>012-016>019. New York...Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 am EST Friday for nyz026>031-034-035-087. && $$ Synopsis...Nash near term...Nash short term...Nash long term...Taber aviation...Taber

Return to Current Conditions

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I'm pretty excited for this storm, but totally pumped for our visitor from the South! Enjoy eyewall! Christmas week dumps are pretty rare in my experience so you are lucky.

Thank you! I am looking forward to it!

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Going to pick up the plow truck in a few minutes. Out at 3AM to plow in Winooski. It's been too long! I am excited.

BTV discussion updated:

AS OF 642 PM EST WEDNESDAY...EVERYTHING REMAINS ON TRACK...AND

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. HAD TO DROP TEMPERATURES

SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS ACROSS THE REGION.

LOWS WILL BE REACHED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THEN

SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRIED TO NARROW DOWN THE START

TIME FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. PRIMARY LOW NOW LOCATED OVER WEST

VIRGINIA WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR WAKEFIELD VIRGINIA.

SECONDARY LOW WILL TAKE OVER DURING THE REST OF THE EVENING AND

PROGRESS TO NEAR DELAWARE BY 03Z...NEW YORK CITY BY 09Z....AND

THEN LONG ISLAND BY 12Z. JUDGING BY CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SNOW HAS

NOW REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY...THE CENTRAL

MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO IN NEW YORK...WITH

A SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. SHOULD BE INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND

SOUTHERN VERMONT AROUND 02Z (9 PM)...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND

04Z (11 PM)...AND THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM AROUND 05Z (MIDNIGHT).

HEAVIEST SNOW WITH INITIAL BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z (2 AM AND 5 AM) WHERE

RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE

SOUTHEAST- UPSLOPE FAVORED LOCATIONS. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL ALSO BE

INCREASING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH

POSSIBLE IN EASTERN ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES BETWEEN 06Z AND

10Z (1 AM AND 5 AM). THIS WILL CREATE SOME WARMING AND DRYING IN

THOSE AREAS...AND COMBINED WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT (750-800

MB) AS INDICATED BY LATEST RAP AND NAM...WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SLEET

MIX IN ACROSS RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES AFTER 07Z...AND

ESPECIALLY AFTER 10Z.

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Enjoy! Still heavy sleet here so it's okay until we rain lol

GYX bumped the totals up along the coast but the funny thing is earlier when they went to issue the Winter Storm Warning I was typing my tweet on how much snow I was expecting. I think at my house in Brunswick since we are in a funny location. I believe I will see somewhere between 8-11" of Wet Snow. Just a mile closer to the coast they might only see 4-7".... My town is very interesting!

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GYX bumped the totals up along the coast but the funny thing is earlier when they went to issue the Winter Storm Warning I was typing my tweet on how much snow I was expecting. I think at my house in Brunswick since we are in a funny location. I believe I will see somewhere between 8-11" of Wet Snow. Just a mile closer to the coast they might only see 4-7".... My town is very interesting!

yeah, my town ranged from 0.75" on the beach to 2.25" just north of my house. My SNE forecast looks solid, lets see about NNE. I like your town for 5" on the beach, 5-8" just off the water, 8-10" 5 miles inland.

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