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NNE Winter Thread II

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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ctsnowstorm628

ctsnowstorm628

Posted
Posted

What areas are these?

Bennington area, Brattleboro area, and WRJ area. I have input in all zones (all of VT) though. I just made a prelim forecast for my aforementioned zones, and I mentioned sleet in SE portions of Bennington county and all of Windham county. Everywhere else is pure snow...and lots of it.

Bennington: Prelim 10-14" (highest near the greens)....may have to watch shadowing/mixing here, though.

Windham: Prelim 8-13" (highest near the greens) closer to the 8"-9" in brattleboro

Windsor: Prelim 10-14" (highest outside of CT river valley)

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PWMan

PWMan

Posted
Posted

Local Portland TV mets have been awful lately. Channel 6 last night didn't even mention a chance of flakes for today, and it snowed all morning. And most seem to be broad-brushing "snow inland, rain at the coast" for this one. Even assuming we do change over at the coast eventually, this looks to be a good front-end thump for greater Portland and anyone relying on those forecasts is going to be caught off guard.

Absolutely perfect surprise Christmas morning snow IMBY, BTW. Beautiful.

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wxjim207

wxjim207

Posted
Posted

".LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GULF STATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM WILL REFORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WED...BEFORE

MOVING NE. GFS...AND THE EURO ARE IN AGREEING CAMPS IN TERMS OF

TRACK AND COOLER THERMAL PROFILE. THE NAM IS VERY WARM...WITH THE

GGEM VERY COLD. HAVE FOLLOWED THE THE GFS/EURO SOLUTION. HAVING SAID

THAT...TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES MAY

PLAY HAVOC WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...AND WITH OUR

CURRENT...NEWLY FORMED SNOWPACK IN PLACE...HAVE NOT TOTALLY

DISCOUNTED THE POSSIBLY OF THE COOLER GGEM SOLUTION.

THEREFORE...HAVE LEFT WINTER STORM WATCHES UP ALONG THE COAST

THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE EVENT THIS COOLER SCENARIO COMES TO

FRUITION. IN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE

COAST TO INTERIOR AREAS.

IN THE MEANTIME...WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE

INTERIOR. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE CLOSE TO A FOOT OF SNOW...WITH MORE

POSSIBLY ACROSS THE HIGHER FACING NE TERRAIN...AND LESS POSSIBLE

OVER THE LOW LYING VALLEYS (PARTICULARLY THE CT RIVER VALLEY)."

AFD from GYX which makes perfect sense why they keep Winter Storm Watches up along Maine Coast...

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

2.9 inches today. It started a little after 7:30 and came pretty hard for a while there. it was pure fluff that was easily pushed aside with the toboggan later.

Awesome! Getting 3" out of that little event is pretty sweet. Maybe a tenth (or two if you count the highest dendrites, lol) here but that's it. Nothing other than flurries at the mountain.

Looking forward to the obs and what we all have coming over the next 48 hours. Doesn't really matter the amount, just stoked to get a widespread snowstorm to watch unfold, analyze, discuss, enjoy... whether it be 8 or 16 inches.

Winter's moving into NNE... quickly. More chances for snow and at least continued cold in the future. This will not be like last year.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

Well, the Winter Storm Watches have been converted to Winter Storm Warnings just about everywhere visible on the BTV advisories map. The current accumulations map has the highest totals in Central/Southern Vermont and the Adirondacks, and I suspect any refinements will be put into additional maps tomorrow.

25DEC12C.jpg

25DEC12D.jpg

Seems like it's been a long time since we've seen a map that looks like that. After last winter I am still only cautiously optimistic.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Seems like it's been a long time since we've seen a map that looks like that. After last winter I am still only cautiously optimistic.

me too, haha. The 00z models continue to show a solid storm. Its not going to be a really huge storm (record top 10 at any widespread locations), IMO,, but it'll seem huge after the dearth of decent snowstorms lately.

After the 00z models I continue to like the 8-14 inch range, with locally higher amounts to 18", across most of NNE.

Orographics may place a larger role than usual in this one, too. The strong easterly flow aligns well for cross barrier flow in the Whites, Spine, and Adirondacks.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yup! Got a nice 1.5" of pure fluff this morning in J-ville.

You should do well in this one on Richmond/Bolton line... I'm not convinced there's as much, if any, shadowing in that area of the west slopes as the further NW you go, there seems to be remnant energy from the primary low coupled with deformation as the mid level lows move to the southeast of the area, that should enhance lift over the central/northern CPV/ west slopes. Then when the flow turns N to NW, the Champlain convergence coupled with upslope, should hammer high-ratio snow for a bit.

I remember several storms like this where I'd leave the mountain on the east side to generally waning and light snow, only to get to the Richmond park 'n ride to find sustained pounding fluff continuing.

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adk

adk

Posted
Posted

me too, haha. The 00z models continue to show a solid storm. Its not going to be a really huge storm (record top 10 at any widespread locations), IMO,, but it'll seem huge after the dearth of decent snowstorms lately.

After the 00z models I continue to like the 8-14 inch range, with locally higher amounts to 18", across most of NNE.

Orographics may place a larger role than usual in this one, too. The strong easterly flow aligns well for cross barrier flow in the Whites, Spine, and Adirondacks.

Widespread 8-14 sounds about right. Which, when widespread is an impressive storm. I think the ADK will go higher than that though. Pretty easy for some parts to get 18+ out of this event. I'd wager the High Peaks above 3000ft prob get into the 2ft range.

Interesting temp profile on the storm. Pocket of very cold air moves in early friday am likely spiking snow ratios. I could see this thing finishing with really super lifht fluffy snow that adds more inches than one would expect along the spine. Something like where it snowed a solid 10-11 inches from tonight thru midnight thurs and then all of a sudden the cold temps move in and another 8 inches with .3inches of liquid drops out of the sky as pure fluff.

The spine has a tendency to make that sorta stuff happen.

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Hitman

Hitman

Posted
Posted

Widespread 8-14 sounds about right. Which, when widespread is an impressive storm. I think the ADK will go higher than that though. Pretty easy for some parts to get 18+ out of this event. I'd wager the High Peaks above 3000ft prob get into the 2ft range.

Interesting temp profile on the storm. Pocket of very cold air moves in early friday am likely spiking snow ratios. I could see this thing finishing with really super lifht fluffy snow that adds more inches than one would expect along the spine. Something like where it snowed a solid 10-11 inches from tonight thru midnight thurs and then all of a sudden the cold temps move in and another 8 inches with .3inches of liquid drops out of the sky as pure fluff.

The spine has a tendency to make that sorta stuff happen.

That would be terrible. I'd hate to have to plow through all that fluff on top of a solid foot of high density base.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

For the VT peeps, Roger Hill (WXheights on the board) is saying he is upping his call for the Barre-Montpelier area to 10"-18" inches, leaning towards the higher end. Has also said that there could be rates of 2" and possibly 3" per hour. For PF and the higher elevation guys thinks there could be some high winds so maybe some close to blizzard conditions up high.

On an opposite note, the VPR Eye on the Skies piece that I heard this morning noted that this day in 1982 kicked off a major warm spell, with Montpelier and Rochester getting to 63° and erasing just about all of the natural snowcover, except for the higest peaks. Mt. Mansfield had 1" at the stake and 47°. I like today's forecast better :mapsnow:

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Where are you? Congrats and enjoy!

Williston, VT (just east of Burlington). I have been here since the 20th. Did some skiing at Bolton Valley. I am originally from LI NY but have been down in NC for quite some time now. I am here until the 3rd. My parents are here and I am visiting for Christmas.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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Williston, VT (just east of Burlington). I have been here since the 20th. Did some skiing at Bolton Valley. I am originally from LI NY but have been down in NC for quite some time now. I am here until the 3rd. My parents are here and I am visiting for Christmas.

Quite sure you missing your rain back home has not even entered into your mind...........lol

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

Quite sure you missing your rain back home has not even entered into your mind...........lol

LOL you can say that. We do get a few snow events here and there but it is tough of course to get anything substantial (unless you are in the mountains)

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