iceman56 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Absolutely horrendous...as discussed many times before kyw really blew it when they decided to axe accuweather after 10 am each morning...it drives me crazy...CBS is THE worst all around news/weather!!! Without Elliot in the morning, they would have axed Accuwx altogether. It's all about $$$, not product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 From JB this AM I like this pattern. I think this storm runs inside Hatteras, outside Norfolk and then across Cape Cod. The I-95 corridor gets into a fight and I am not good enough to call how far back it rains. I will say to get the heaviest snow, you need to smell the rain and have some sleet get in there..just a half hour of ting ting ting But here is something you should remember. THIS IS A VERY SMALL EVENT as far as the atmosphere is concerned. There is a heck of alot going on around it.. flow splitting, a stronger system as far as the height fall center coming in Friday and center. This is the exact kind of thing, where in model world, it comes down to who has the best physics. To me it comes down the the pattern. Have a tough time believing ridge on west coast, bigh high not blocking but moving off, that a storm is going to escape out into the ocean. The latest nam a bit further east, but its not as strong with the upper center. Thrown in another 60 meters to the upper center instead of weakening it a bit, and you have the ECWMF. So with all that is going on, it might get cold feet a bit. And of course there is no assurance I am right. But I am going to tell you why I think something is going to happen and not depending on the model. I think the ECWMF is closest because it agrees with what I think. That being said, I think it might be a bit too far west. Watch the wind at HSE and ORF when this comes up to see if I am right. Its amazing watching it snow from the panhandle of Maryland to north Jersey this year. Even last nights Fizzler of the century stuck its 3 inch max through there. PHL 2.7 out of .15 inches of liquid. PSU measured 2.0 out of .18 because they dont take the ob till 7 am and the snow got blown around. But alot of 15 to 20 to 1s showing up. Now that may happen on the nw side of this, but it looks like good old 10 to 1 where it snows hardest. anyway until Wed am, its no use getting all model focused.. just duly note and log which model said what and when and see how it actually turns out. I am betting that we see the center of the upper low near 540 Thur am over va, which is signficantly stronger than the NAM has now, and a more extensive storm ( more snow spreads west/north) but the heaviest still close to the big cities. But then again last night, it had what I thought was a good run. If it agrees with me its good. ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Absolutely horrendous...as discussed many times before kyw really blew it when they decided to axe accuweather after 10 am each morning...it drives me crazy...CBS is THE worst all around news/weather!!! To me, losing KYW as a source of good, updated weather information makes me feel the same way I did when both Richie Ashburn and Harry Kalas died. Back in the stone age before computers, I spent my entire childhood (and that continued well into adulthood) getting the best and most up-to-minute weather information I could on KYW just as I had spent much of my life listening to Richie and Harry call Phillies' games on the radio. Personally, I didn't discover the internet as a source for fast and continuous weather updates until about 15 years ago. Before that (and before The Weather Channel), KYW and local TV news were the only sources of even remotely up-to-date weather forecasts, and, of course, the TV news only came on at noon, 5 pm and 11 pm so, in between, it was KYW or nothing. Heck, it was on KYW on the afternoon of January 6, 1996 that I first heard they were updating forecast totals from 8 to 12 inches to 1 to 2 feet "and more if the storm reaches its full potential" for the Blizzard of '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 To me, losing KYW as a source of good, updated weather information makes me feel the same way I did when both Richie Ashburn and Harry Kalas died. Back in the stone age before computers, I spent my entire childhood (and that continued well into adulthood) getting the best and most up-to-minute weather information I could on KYW just as I had spent much of my life listening to Richie and Harry call Phillies' games on the radio. Personally, I didn't discover the internet as a source for fast and continuous weather updates until about 15 years ago. Before that (and before The Weather Channel), KYW and local TV news were the only sources of even remotely up-to-date weather forecasts, and, of course, the TV news only came on at noon, 5 pm and 11 pm so, in between, it was KYW or nothing. Heck, it was on KYW on the afternoon of January 6, 1996 that I first heard they were updating forecast totals from 8 to 12 inches to 1 to 2 feet "and more if the storm reaches its full potential" for the Blizzard of '96. WOW..so well said...we were likely listening to the same broadcasts as kids and building that uncontrollable excitement/anticipation of the pending snow. In school, during the '70s, I would carry around a transistor radio just to get the latest words from Elliot A... Great memories that KYW radio has taken away (radio wise) from today's budding young "weather lovers" (and us "older/wiser" folks) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hurricane is playing it close to the vest at the lunch hour. Basically saying snow and rain with significant acc possible. Very few details -- can't say I blame him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hurricane is playing it close to the vest at the lunch hour. Basically saying snow and rain with significant acc possible. Very few details -- can't say I blame him.same with abc6 snow/rain. Very conservative for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 JB looking at the GFS early this morning tweeted earlier that "Forecasters should ask how many storms intensifying up the east coast have less snow further north than south? rare" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 same with abc6 snow/rain. Very conservative for now. and yet NWS snow maps not so conservative (or are they ) ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 and yet NWS snow maps not so conservative (or are they ) ! I'd say they look spot on from this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think it's better to start conservative, but mention the possibility that this could be a major winter storm with higher impacts than what is currently being forecast. Then if it still looks like this could be big as we go into tonight and early tomorrow, bump things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I agree. It's much better to start low and keep increasing the amounts as the snowstorm gets closer than to call for two feet of snow and look bad if only 4" falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I agree. It's much better to start low and keep increasing the amounts as the snowstorm gets closer than to call for two feet of snow and look bad if only 4" falls. Not if your name is JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 going out on a limb for some more subscribers? http://epawablogs.com/weather-alert-maps-2/ definitely have snow tinted pair of goggles on over there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ray agree that ....while i think JB excels at pattern recognition and general storm forecasts.....he struggles on forecast details especially around edges where he is normally too aggressive. It's what I always say understand a forecaster's bias = JB too cold and too broad with precipitation. Not if your name is JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Abc6 going with little snow for city mainly fzra and rain wednesday with rain all day Thursday all the way to Allentown yet still going with 6-12" for the area n and w of i95. David murphy says new model showing ice could be a big problem. Very confusing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Nbc 10 saying a half a foot or more depending on track but they r certain most of us flip to rain thursday. Ballsy. If we get stuck under the ccb as some models suggest we are not going to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 JB map posted below - sees wide area of 1 to 2 feet in areas in purple. Had an interesting rant regarding the GFS and why forecasts including both Accuweather and NWS don't have big events in their forecast till within a few days because of such a poor model. He goes in to the physics of the model and how it will never be corrected.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Ralph - if you look to TV (excluding) Hurricane.....you are well....not going to be getting very good forecasts. Although I do love that no matter how far off Channel 6 is - Mr Murphy will come back and later say "just as we called it" LOL Abc6 going with little snow for city mainly fzra and rain wednesday with rain all day Thursday all the way to Allentown yet still going with 6-12" for the area n and w of i95. David murphy says new model showing ice could be a big problem. Very confusing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Abc6 going with little snow for city mainly fzra and rain wednesday with rain all day Thursday all the way to Allentown yet still going with 6-12" for the area n and w of i95. David murphy says new model showing ice could be a big problem. Very confusing.... Where are they getting that from??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Abc6 going with little snow for city mainly fzra and rain wednesday with rain all day Thursday all the way to Allentown yet still going with 6-12" for the area n and w of i95. David murphy says new model showing ice could be a big problem. Very confusing.... I watched Murphy this morning & he didn't say anything remotely close to little snow & mainly rain / frz rain for the city, he clearly indicated snow in the city until 8am Thurs then changing to sleet, rain & back to snow. He stated where the snow / sleet line sets up & how much snow on the "backside" where still in question. 6ABC map from this morning, city in the 6-12" zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I watched Murphy this morning & he didn't say anything remotely close to little snow & mainly rain / frz rain for the city, he clearly indicated snow in the city until 8am Thurs then changing to sleet, rain & back to snow. He stated where the snow / sleet line sets up & how much snow on the "backside" where still in question. 6ABC map from this morning, city in the 6-12" zone 9427050_600x338.jpg I assure u I quoted him precisely. This was at 5:15am...he said he was using a new model. I was really confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weather Nation, the worst excuse for a weather channel one can watch was saying out to sea with little or no precip short of the immediate coast as of 8am. I never thought I would miss the Weather Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Weather Nation, the worst excuse for a weather channel one can watch was saying out to sea with little or no precip short of the immediate coast as of 8am. I never thought I would miss the Weather Channel. Strangely, the Weather Channel (yes, I still watch it every now and again) seems to be doing pretty good so far with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Forecast Map from Steve D at NYNJPA Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 accuweather must like the GGEM on abc, rain to allentown on their futurecast they did mention up to 6-12 is a scenario possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 accuweather throwing out the b word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 accuweather throwing out the b word "boat" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Latest Forecast map from Meteorologist Steve D at NYNJPA Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Steve D dropped the dark blue further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Per JB American Models still not corrected enough....but they will get there Same story except the feedback system is pointed further west. But this is a big problem as its overplaying ( or not) has been the GFS/NAM problem all along. It has been a problem because the original ideas as I have been showing have been east of this. Lets again look. The 00z run for 12z tomorrow on the left shows more of feedback system, but even at 12z its pointed more nne than north and the GFS is probably still a bit far east with the actual storm The feedback forecast is crucial. If its not there, or weaker, then the normal process of heavy precip nw of the storm continues as the storm deepens. Its unusual to see a storm deeping over 1 mb/hr but precip rates decrease. But what is going on here is the modeling is saying the warm advection is so impressive, its running that off the field while the upper dynamics hang back. Possible but I dont think likely or not to this extent. Until I see the ECWMF and its control back away, I am not willing to buy this jump, at least not this quick or as far as east as the US suite has. It still has some correcting to do, IMO So the forecast has not changed, but I do want to show you I am not just saying, oh its the gfs. Instead there is a reason and its grounded in sound ideas as to how this can happen, but its probably too fast. If it keeps correcting the next 3 runs, by 12z tomorrow, it will be where the ECWMF is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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